Erick Karabells' answers our fantasy questions...sort of

So we've gotten mentioned in Keith Law chats, Rob Neyer chats, and now Eric Karabell takes a fantasy question from yours truly. Except that he completely missed the point I was trying to make. But that's ok, because at least other people see our reasoning now. Anyways, the question was posted here and it read as follows:

DWTHTB, *****, Fla.: "Eric, every time I hear you on ESPN Radio or read your blog, I hear you say 'When it comes to closers, saves are all that matters; the other numbers (ERA/WHIP) are irrelevant.' And for someone in a roto league, I would completely agree with you, because 1,250-1,600 innings can negate terrible outings like Jorge Julio on Thursday (1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB) and Chris Ray on Saturday (2/3 IP, 4 ER, 2 H, 1 BB). However, if you play in a head-to-head league (as I do), then you are completely wrong, and the advice is the exact opposite. Over 50-70 innings, you just don't have enough innings to balance out one or two bad closer outings. In my league last week, I had 10 starts. No starting pitcher gave up more than three earned runs, except Aaron Harang. Yet, I still lost ERA and WHIP. How? Bad closers. Those two outings mentioned above from Ray and Julio raised my ERA from 2.45 to 3.16 and my WHIP from 1.17 to 1.27 (my opponent had ERA/WHIP of 2.91 and 1.18). So excuse me if I discount your advice and don't immediately pick up every closer out there on the waiver wire to protect my ERA/WHIP."

(Ed. note: A bit snarky, but you'd be upset too if you lost 7-5 instead of won 7-5 because you picked up Julio AND Ray gives up a Grand Slam--the worst possible outcome--after getting 2 quick outs).

Eric: Josh's points could make sense, I suppose, except how does he know when the closers are going to get lit up? (You don't unless you own reliable closers like Rivera, Hoffman, Papelbon, K-Rod, Ryan, who never get lit up. Or if they do it happens once a year) I mean, it's easy today for everyone to say they say Julio's nightmare coming (which they didn't) (Yea, a guy who has lost the closer's role for 2 different teams in 2 different leagues, didn't see his blowup coming), but what about Ray? Didja see that coming? (No, but given the fact that he gave up 10 HR last year, I wasn't suprised after seeing the Grand Slam) I'm not going to punt saves in any league just to avoid the rare closing bombings. (Rare for people like Rivera, Hoffman, K-rod, and other reliable CP. Not rare for people like Julio, Dempster, etc..) Josh got unlucky, that's all. Most closers didn't have weeks like Julio and Ray did. In fact, of the 29 pitchers who registered 50 saves the first week, the group allowed a total of 20 earned runs. Julio was not among them, blowing one save and getting removed from another, but Ray, B.J. Ryan and Francisco Rodriguez allowed nine of the runs. You couldn't have known to sit them (The point is that Julio shouldn't even has been on my roster, much less my bench), so my point stands. Yes, you can lose any week in a head-to-head format if a closer gets hammered, but they are still a whole lot safer on the ERA and WHIP than most starting pitchers. Say our e-mailer had avoided Julio, but used Jose Contreras instead (Julio actually gives you a chance to win one category, saves. What does Jose Contreras give you a chance at? Besides contacts with smuggled ballplayers). See the point?

Now, I'm going to post my full response below, but I'm also going to intermix certain answers/replies above to Karabell's thoughts in red.

My response emailed to Eric:

Eric,
First, thank you for responding to my question. But I think you missed the point of it a little bit. I wasn't complaining about Ray so much (as he is fairly reliable), but about Julio. My point was that in a roto league, you can wait and draft Dempster, Valverde, and Benitez in rounds 12-15. And its very likely that they could match Nathan, Papelbon, and Saito in the number of Saves. And at the end of the season you could still end up with a good ERA/WHIP with Dempster, Valverde, Isringhausen. However, in a H2H league, since lower ranked closers are much much more likely to have blowups (i.e more than 2 ER) than the top-tier closers, its much more likely that you could lose ERA/WHIP one week due to your closers. Obviously, no one knows when their closers are going to blow a game miserably. But the point is that it rarely happens to top level closers and happens frequently to low-level closers. Take the top 7 CP (Hoffman, Rivera, Papelbon, K-Rod, Nathan, Ryan, Street) and you have 7 appearances last year where they gave up more than 2 ER (4 of these from Street alone). So my point is that high end closers are so much more valuable in H2H leagues because they provide the reliability of not costing you ERA/WHIP during a week, whereas you can gamble with lower ranked closers and get just as many saves, but sooner or later they're going to give up 3 runs or like 4-6 hits in an inning and cost you ERA/WHIP. You constantly preach about only looking at a closer's save potential. I think this should be amended to say "Only look at....in Roto leagues". ERA/WHIP do matter in H2H leagues because 1 or 2 bad outings can cost you ERA/WHIP since the inning total is so small. I'd rather drop Julio and take the loss in saves to not run the risk of messing up my ERA/WHIP, than to keep Julio and potentially win saves, but possibly at the expensive of ERA/WHIP. Am I wrong here? Last year I had Lidge, Jenks, and Dempster and I lost ERA/WHIP 4 separate times because one or more of them had blowups. So that's why it I think good closers (i.e. the top half) are essential for H2H leagues. They won't have that 2/3 IP, 3 BB, 4 run outing and if they do, its once during the season, not 3-5 times like Julio, Dempster, et all.

We'll just have to wait and see.

2007 Fantasy Preview -10 Undervalued Players (Sleepers)

It's not really fair to call these players Sleepers in that you've probably heard of most of them. They are people who you can draft late (or later than comparable players) and get decent production out of.

Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Kelvim Escobar	SP	202
Comments: dwthtb: Read the comments about Santana in our Busts list. Escobar pitched very well last year and had only 11 wins because of poor RS and poor defense (27 UER). He only made 3 fewer starts than Santana, so while he does have some injury history, he is solid across 4 categories. Take him in Round 20 and then laugh at your friend who drafted Wang in Round 12 when Escobar beats/matches him in every category. tent time: How does Escobar fall so far? Poor run support lead to a record of 11-14, but a 3.60 ERA and a K/BB ratio of nearly 3/1. Last year's bad look will probably even itself out, but even if it doesn't he'll deliver strong numbers in ERA, WHIP and K's.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
David Bush	SP	150
Comments: dwthtb: This one has been documented extensively by Eric Karabell, but basically Bush gives up few BB's, gets a ton of K's, and only had a bad ERA due to some bad luck. Phenomenal WHIP too. ERA/Wins should improve assuming that K/BB ratio stays the same. tent time: Fewer hits than innings pitched, solid K's and a great WHIP last year but gave up a few too many homers (26) on a mediocre ballclub. He's a year older and should improve. His K/BB ratio of nearly 4/1 speaks highly of his potential.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Morgan Ensberg	3B	205
Comments: dwthtb: Ensberg is starting to look like : great in odd-numbered years, and average/bad in even numbered ones. One should remember though that last year he was off too a good start before he ran into shoulder problems. Could easily rebound to 25-100 and you can draft him in Round 20+ way behind Aubrey Huff, Chad Tracey, Adrian Beltre. tent time: In CBS Sportsline head to head leagues, Ensberg is currently the 27th third base eligible player being drafted, after the likes of Mike Lowell, Wilson Betemit, Mark DeRosa and Adrian Beltre (who doesn't deserve to even be mentioned in fantasy baseball discussions). Ensberg is only one year removed from a 35 homer season. Last year, he hit 23 long balls, but more importantly put up a .396 OBP in 120 games. Expect at least a decent rebound.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Barry Bonds	OF	172
Comments: dwthtb: Love him or hate him, Bonds put up decent numbers in 2006. Granted his inordinate number of BB's don't really help you in AVG leagues, but he could easily go 25-90 with 80 Runs. tent time: Bonds is currently being drafted after Gary Matthews, Jr. I would rather draft my dog than Gary Matthews, Jr, and she can't hit for much power (fast, though). Everybody in your league hates Bonds and many will attempt a moral stance and say they won't draft Bonds at all. Take advantage of this and add Bonds in the mid to late rounds (12-16).
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Pat Burrell	OF	138
Comments: dwthtb: He's a virtual lock for 30-100 and should have plenty of chances for RBI's as team's pitch around Ryan Howard. His average won't be great and he won't score a ton of runs in the number 5 hole, but how many 30-100 guys can you find left in round 15+? tent time: Was Burrell's year really that bad? No. He still hit 28 homers with a .890 OPS. His biggest problem was probably all the at bats he had after Howard cleared off the bases, killing his RBI totals. With all the walks Howard is likely to accrue, Burrell should have tons of RBI opportunities. Right now he's being drafted after Corey Patterson who literally helps you in only one category. Also, my wife says he's hot.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Derek Lowe	SP	163
Comments: dwthtb: He beat or matched Wang in every pitching category last year (ex. wins) but still ended up with 16 (tied for NL lead). His numbers were actually remarkably consistent the past 2 years in LA (ERA, WHIP separated by .02 and K/BB ratio went down slightly last year). Take him 8 rounds after Wang or Barry Zito and get similar results. tent time: Lowe is consistent, and what his last two years in LA illustrate is how little control over their record starting pitchers have. That Lowe is being drafted some 30 spots after Wang is unbelievable.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Scott Olsen	SP	193
Comments: dwthtb: Olsen pitched decently last year and should get better this year. His home numbers were terrible compared to his road numbers (which is strange consider how much of a pitcher's park Dolphin Stadium is). Led all Marlins pitchers in K's and had the best K/BB ratio out of all the young guns. 2006 numbers were virtually identical to Dontrelle Willis and he didn't have any injury problems unlike Sanchez and Johnson. tent time: As a young Marlins pitcher with solid strikeout numbers who has managed to avoid injury this far, Scott Olsen stands out on his staff. If he can cut his walks a little bit, we're looking at a possible breakout season.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Tim Hudson	SP	200
Comments: dwthtb: tent time: My partner in blogging looks at Tim Hudson and sees what most people see, and that is a pitcher whose numbers have been declining for 3 straight years. I see a veteran desperate to turn his career around who underwent a torturous offseason training program. I'll draft him very very late, and probably wait a few weeks to start using him, but I expect to be rewarded when I do. Why? Gut feeling.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Adam Laroche	1B	144
Comments: dwthtb: Laroche caught fire after the ASB last year and hopefully that will continue this year. He could easily be a 30-100 1B with 90-100 runs and decent AVG, yet you should be able to get him several rounds after Giambi, Sexson, and Swisher, all of whom kill your avg. tent time: We all know his numbers in the second half of '06 (.655 slugging) and with a season coming up where he'll hit behind walk machine Jason Bay, look for LaRoche's RBI's to jump.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Ian Kinsler	2B	175
Comments: dwthtb: Kinsler showed moderate power and SB in an abbreviated 2006. He could easily go 20-20 which would be especially valuable at 2B since it is such a week position after Utley. He should also score a ton of runs hitting at the top of that Texas lineup. You can wait til Round 15+ to get production equivalent to Ray Durham, Josh Barfield, or Marcus Giles. tent time: 11 steals and 14 homers in 423 at bats in '06 makes Kinsler a decent pick to go 20-20 in '07. I'd love it if he'd bat second between Lofton and Young, so if he does, watch out for a lot of runs scored. Right now he's the 13th second basemen drafted, so don't panic when a lot of second sackers are coming off the boards and remember there's potential late in the draft.

2007 Fantasy Preview--10 Overvalued Players (Busts)

It's not really fair to call these players Busts in that some of them may turn out to have fine years. However, their production isn't going to match the position in which you draft them. So they're really "Overvalued" rather than Busts. For the record, the average draft position included comes from cbssportsline.

Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Felipe Lopez	SS (2B)	79	Podsednik, C. Patterson
Comments: dwthtb: His value pretty much lies in his steals. He's now going to play a full season on a team with a terrible offense, in a pitcher's park, so he will score some runs, but I'm not banking on anywhere near 100. Why draft him for the steals when you can get Corey Patterson or Podsednik (granted he is injured), several rounds later. The only upside to him is that he will be eligible at both MI positions. tent time: In 2005, Lopez stole 15 bases. In an injury shortened 2004 season (79 games) he stole 1 (one) base. In 2006, he stole 44 bases. If you think 2006 is the real Lopez and you're sure he will duplicate those steals, then by all means go get him. I am not so sure.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Takashi Saito	CP	82
Comments: dwthtb: He had an amazing season last year with an ungodly amount of K's. The question is can he do it again at age 37 especially with several young fireballers (Broxton, Billingsley) breathing down his neck. tent time: I suppose the question with Saito is how much did accomplish simply by tricking hitters who had never seen him before? I would expect at least a slight decline and I wouldn't draft him ahead of Putz or Hoffman, unless you are wholly confident that his strikeout total will remain high.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Ryan Zimmerman	3B	65
Comments: dwthtb: I just don't see how a player with no lineup protection in a pitcher's park on a terrible offense is going to improve his numbers across the board, esp. HR. Chipper Jones outperformed him last year in only 4.5 months of play. Could easily wait several rounds and take Eric Chavez/Morgan Ensberg who could match him if they rebound to pre-injury performance tent time: The allure for Zim is that he's young (24) and sure to improve. The problem is that even if he improves his game, there's hardly anybody around him to drive in, or to be driven in by. Nick Johnson has a broken leg and won't be back until at least the All Star break, leaving Zimmerman surrounded in the lineup by the likes of Brian Schneider and Nook Logan. I'm not saying Zim is bad, but since runs and RBI count, you'll be better off drafting someone like Chipper Jones or Scott Rolen later on.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Chien-Ming Wang	SP	121
Comments: dwthtb: He offers no K's, and the Wins are largely a function of Run Support (6.32 Runs/game) and his WHIP wasn't that good (1.31). Could easily end up with 14 wins. Derek Lowe could have just as many wins, comparable ERA & WHIP, and more K's many rounds later. tent time: The total lack of strikeouts may not be a huge deal in real baseball, but people this is fantasy baseball. Just like Christina Aguilera getting married doesn't effect my real life, but sure as hell messes up my fantasy life. In 218 innings last year, Wang only K'd 76. With a WHIP about 1.30, he basically becomes a 2 category pitcher - Wins and ERA. Should his run support decrease (no sheffield, older giambi and damon) or some more of those ground balls find holes, his value will plummet. Let somebody else take the risk.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Ervin Sanatana	SP	124
Comments: dwthtb: He walks a lot of batters and had a high ERA for pitching his home games in a pitcher's park. Compared to Escobar, he gave up more HR, more BB's, and fewer K's. He got more wins only because of run support--13th (6.32 runs/game) and defense. Don't expect that to continue tent time: How the Angels managed to score over 6 runs a game for him is a mystery. A good mystery. Santana had a decent year, but he walks too many (70) and that offense will most certainly not back him up again in 2007 and unfortunately, even though they don't mean a lot in real baseball, Wins are a fantasy stat.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Vernon Wells	OF	36
Comments: dwthtb: Wells had a fine season last year and even contributed 17 steals. However, it was only his 2nd 30-100 season and first since 2003 (which preceeded two straight years of declining OPS). The Blue Jays lineup should be better with Frank Thomas, but Wells simply isn't a stud outfielder in the likes of Andruw Jones, Carlos Lee, or Bobby Abreu. tent time: It's amazing how one big year can make people forget about the past. If the Wells that shows up in 2007 (bloated checkbook and all) is the Wells of 2006, then by all means, use a high pick (still not the second round, though) on him. He should score a lot of runs with Thomas and Glaus behind him. But if that average and homers dip to where they were in '04-'05 (.272 - .269, 23- 28) you'll be disappointed that you left Jones, Lee and Abreu out there. Oh, and I wouldn't count on those 17 steals repeating themselves, either.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Joe Mauer	C	16
Comments: dwthtb: Mauer is clearly the best catcher on the market. But his average overshadowed how little he contributed in other fantasy categories. Among catchers he was 5th in RBI, 13th in HR and 3rd in steals. No way he should be drafted when people like Andruw Jones, Carlos Lee, Ichiro, Aramis Ramirez or Holliday are still available. tent time: For a catcher to go in the third round, he'd have to be Piazza circa late 1990's. Mauer has a great average, and should score runs ahead of Morneau and Cuddyer, but there just isn't enough power here to justify the pick. Sure everybody wants a good catcher, but wait a few rounds and take Martinez or McCann. Or wait a few more rounds and take a risk on Piazza. Use that second or third round pick on the stud hitter or starter.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Jermaine Dye	OF	50
Comments: dwthtb: Dye will probably have a solid 30-100 season. Just don't draft him expecting to get a top 5 OF (like he was last year). tent time: Career years happen once. They don't happen twice. If they did, they wouldn't be career years.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Ben Sheets	SP	56
Comments: dwthtb: Sheets pitched really well in his last 8-9 starts last year, but I just can't trust a guy who has had repeated injuries on the same body part over the last 2 season. No way, I'm taking a guy with an injury history over someone like Smoltz or Aaron Harang who have shown consistent solid production over the last 2 years. tent time: I will not be burned by him. A player in our league said the following to no less than 10 times last season: "And when Sheets comes back, my rotation will be dominant." I refuse to be that person. May as well draft Prior. Don't be blinded by what he did in 2004, the last year he was healthy. He could be great, but let's be honest, he probably won't be.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Dan Uggla	2B	98
Comments: dwthtb: Uggly finished 2006 as the 3rd ranked 2B due to great power and Run totals. Seeing as he came out of nowhere and had a very poor finish to last year, I don't see him improving much or putting up 25-100 numbers again. tent time: Did Uggla play over his head last year? The whole team probably did (except Cabrera). All we know is that in 122 September at bats, Uggla's OBP was .269. Go with Barfield or Kinsler later.