2007 Fantasy Preview--10 Overvalued Players (Busts)

It's not really fair to call these players Busts in that some of them may turn out to have fine years. However, their production isn't going to match the position in which you draft them. So they're really "Overvalued" rather than Busts. For the record, the average draft position included comes from cbssportsline.

Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Felipe Lopez	SS (2B)	79	Podsednik, C. Patterson
Comments: dwthtb: His value pretty much lies in his steals. He's now going to play a full season on a team with a terrible offense, in a pitcher's park, so he will score some runs, but I'm not banking on anywhere near 100. Why draft him for the steals when you can get Corey Patterson or Podsednik (granted he is injured), several rounds later. The only upside to him is that he will be eligible at both MI positions. tent time: In 2005, Lopez stole 15 bases. In an injury shortened 2004 season (79 games) he stole 1 (one) base. In 2006, he stole 44 bases. If you think 2006 is the real Lopez and you're sure he will duplicate those steals, then by all means go get him. I am not so sure.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Takashi Saito	CP	82
Comments: dwthtb: He had an amazing season last year with an ungodly amount of K's. The question is can he do it again at age 37 especially with several young fireballers (Broxton, Billingsley) breathing down his neck. tent time: I suppose the question with Saito is how much did accomplish simply by tricking hitters who had never seen him before? I would expect at least a slight decline and I wouldn't draft him ahead of Putz or Hoffman, unless you are wholly confident that his strikeout total will remain high.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Ryan Zimmerman	3B	65
Comments: dwthtb: I just don't see how a player with no lineup protection in a pitcher's park on a terrible offense is going to improve his numbers across the board, esp. HR. Chipper Jones outperformed him last year in only 4.5 months of play. Could easily wait several rounds and take Eric Chavez/Morgan Ensberg who could match him if they rebound to pre-injury performance tent time: The allure for Zim is that he's young (24) and sure to improve. The problem is that even if he improves his game, there's hardly anybody around him to drive in, or to be driven in by. Nick Johnson has a broken leg and won't be back until at least the All Star break, leaving Zimmerman surrounded in the lineup by the likes of Brian Schneider and Nook Logan. I'm not saying Zim is bad, but since runs and RBI count, you'll be better off drafting someone like Chipper Jones or Scott Rolen later on.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Chien-Ming Wang	SP	121
Comments: dwthtb: He offers no K's, and the Wins are largely a function of Run Support (6.32 Runs/game) and his WHIP wasn't that good (1.31). Could easily end up with 14 wins. Derek Lowe could have just as many wins, comparable ERA & WHIP, and more K's many rounds later. tent time: The total lack of strikeouts may not be a huge deal in real baseball, but people this is fantasy baseball. Just like Christina Aguilera getting married doesn't effect my real life, but sure as hell messes up my fantasy life. In 218 innings last year, Wang only K'd 76. With a WHIP about 1.30, he basically becomes a 2 category pitcher - Wins and ERA. Should his run support decrease (no sheffield, older giambi and damon) or some more of those ground balls find holes, his value will plummet. Let somebody else take the risk.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Ervin Sanatana	SP	124
Comments: dwthtb: He walks a lot of batters and had a high ERA for pitching his home games in a pitcher's park. Compared to Escobar, he gave up more HR, more BB's, and fewer K's. He got more wins only because of run support--13th (6.32 runs/game) and defense. Don't expect that to continue tent time: How the Angels managed to score over 6 runs a game for him is a mystery. A good mystery. Santana had a decent year, but he walks too many (70) and that offense will most certainly not back him up again in 2007 and unfortunately, even though they don't mean a lot in real baseball, Wins are a fantasy stat.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Vernon Wells	OF	36
Comments: dwthtb: Wells had a fine season last year and even contributed 17 steals. However, it was only his 2nd 30-100 season and first since 2003 (which preceeded two straight years of declining OPS). The Blue Jays lineup should be better with Frank Thomas, but Wells simply isn't a stud outfielder in the likes of Andruw Jones, Carlos Lee, or Bobby Abreu. tent time: It's amazing how one big year can make people forget about the past. If the Wells that shows up in 2007 (bloated checkbook and all) is the Wells of 2006, then by all means, use a high pick (still not the second round, though) on him. He should score a lot of runs with Thomas and Glaus behind him. But if that average and homers dip to where they were in '04-'05 (.272 - .269, 23- 28) you'll be disappointed that you left Jones, Lee and Abreu out there. Oh, and I wouldn't count on those 17 steals repeating themselves, either.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Joe Mauer	C	16
Comments: dwthtb: Mauer is clearly the best catcher on the market. But his average overshadowed how little he contributed in other fantasy categories. Among catchers he was 5th in RBI, 13th in HR and 3rd in steals. No way he should be drafted when people like Andruw Jones, Carlos Lee, Ichiro, Aramis Ramirez or Holliday are still available. tent time: For a catcher to go in the third round, he'd have to be Piazza circa late 1990's. Mauer has a great average, and should score runs ahead of Morneau and Cuddyer, but there just isn't enough power here to justify the pick. Sure everybody wants a good catcher, but wait a few rounds and take Martinez or McCann. Or wait a few more rounds and take a risk on Piazza. Use that second or third round pick on the stud hitter or starter.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Jermaine Dye	OF	50
Comments: dwthtb: Dye will probably have a solid 30-100 season. Just don't draft him expecting to get a top 5 OF (like he was last year). tent time: Career years happen once. They don't happen twice. If they did, they wouldn't be career years.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Ben Sheets	SP	56
Comments: dwthtb: Sheets pitched really well in his last 8-9 starts last year, but I just can't trust a guy who has had repeated injuries on the same body part over the last 2 season. No way, I'm taking a guy with an injury history over someone like Smoltz or Aaron Harang who have shown consistent solid production over the last 2 years. tent time: I will not be burned by him. A player in our league said the following to no less than 10 times last season: "And when Sheets comes back, my rotation will be dominant." I refuse to be that person. May as well draft Prior. Don't be blinded by what he did in 2004, the last year he was healthy. He could be great, but let's be honest, he probably won't be.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Dan Uggla	2B	98
Comments: dwthtb: Uggly finished 2006 as the 3rd ranked 2B due to great power and Run totals. Seeing as he came out of nowhere and had a very poor finish to last year, I don't see him improving much or putting up 25-100 numbers again. tent time: Did Uggla play over his head last year? The whole team probably did (except Cabrera). All we know is that in 122 September at bats, Uggla's OBP was .269. Go with Barfield or Kinsler later.