Real Baseball Blog

2010 Fantasy Season Review

2010-10-10T15:58:00.019-04:00

2010 Season

Head to Head fantasy baseball is a cruel mistress. A cruel, brutal, thankless, loveless mistress that gently tongues your balls one minute and then mercilessly fist-fucks your asshole the next.
One minute, fantasy baseball looks like her
and the next,
it looks like her.

One minute, you have the best record in the league - then some lesser team gets hot and kicks your ass all over the place.
One minute, you think you've won your playoff matchup on the tiebreaker - then you find out there's a new tiebreaker and you've actually lost.
One minute, you're riding into the playoffs as the comfortable #3 seed - then you're putting up a .541 OPS and a 4.33 ERA and the #6 seed is bashing your skull to mush in an 11-1 rout that ends your season.

It's cruel and unforgiving. And yet we love it.

And so... another season has come and gone and another Danishevsky brother finished the regular season in dead last. After the brothers D both reached the finals in '08, they've gone on to finish the last two regular seasons 8th/10th and 8th/10th. On a positive note, they both managed to avoid drafting Barry Zito this year, so maybe that's an improvement.
There's an expression: If it ain't broke, don't fix it. But what if it's really broken?

We saw another classic Jon Fusco Cinderella run from the #7th seed heading to the final week of the regular season all the way into the semifinals. Perhaps even more impressive, Jon kept alive another streak: 9 years in this league and has still never made a single trade.

We saw Jordan's "Sexwithasianwives" squad continue to win week after week despite mediocre cumulative totals - until he ran into a brick wall in the first round of the playoffs and set the season record for lowest OPS in a week (.541).

We saw Frank's "Too Big To Fail" team struggle with injuries and lack of production from almost everybody besides Cano, yet he became the team nobody wanted to face at the end, going 44-14-2 over the last 5 weeks to get himself out of the basement.

Godsill's League Champion "Sophomore Slumps" team won only once in their first 6 weeks and was under .500 until the LAST WEEK of the regular season. Amazing.

I finished the regular season with a 16 game lead on 2nd place but without Hamilton and Prado, my team was no match for Godsill's squad who got hot at the right time.
Consider this amazing production:
Troy Tulowitzki hit 6 homers with 17 RBI and 9 runs in SIX GAMES!
Shin Soo Choo had his first career 3 homer game, knocked in 11 runs and stole 2 bases!
Adam Jones - who would finish the year with a .760 OPS - almost doubles that, posting an OPS over 1.300!
Jonathan Sanchez made only 2 starts all season in which he didn't walk a batter. This week was one of them as he struck out 12 (TWELVE) dodgers in 7 scoreless innings!
Scherzer, Gallardo and Cueto each posted K/BB ratios over 5.49. For the season, none of their K/BB ratios were above 2.70.

There was no stopping him as he took down the #1 and #2 seeds in the playoffs, giving himself the championship that his beloved, overpaid, overhyped, shitfuck Yankee team could not and finally justifying all the hours of hard work and effort he puts into styling the hair of his Yahoo avatar.

Best Pick:

Carlos Gonzalez - 125th Overall - 4th Time's A Charm
After Of's like McLouth, Damon, Beltran, Kubel, Span and Drew, Joshwhite nabbed Yahoo's #1 overall player with the 125th overall pick in the draft. Pretty impressive value, but hey, sometimes you just have to grab McLouth and Span.

Honorable Mention:

David Price - 199th Overall - SexWithAsianWives
Jordan got the 9th ranked SP in the 20th round of the draft. Huge value. Other SP's drafted before Price include: Jeff Niemann, Zambrano, Wolf, Kazmir and Brandon Webb. WEBB! Just a great pick for Jordan which makes it really stand out from the rest of his draft. Which was bad. And included guys like AJ Burnett.

Other Great Selections:

Paul Konerko - 236th overall - 4th Time's A Charm - Another great pick for Joshwhite netted him the 12th overall player in the 23rd round. And after notable fantasy all-stars like Joel Piniero, George Sherrill, Nick Johnson, Takeshi Saito and Russell Branyan.

Vlad Guerrero - 128th overall - Don't Pull - Vlad ended the season ranked 26th overall and was easily the highest ranked offensive player on Jon's team. Where would his struggling offense have been without Vlad?

Alex Rios - 141st overall - Olympdicks - Mike got a huge bounce back year from Rios, who ended the season ranked 27th, providing power and speed to a team lacking in both.

Corey Hart - 209th overall - Sophomore Slumps - Hart was off most people's radar coming into 2010 and rightly so, but Godsill saw something he liked (possibly just white skin) and nabbed the #32 ranked player after the likes of Branyan, Garrett Jones, Matsui, Sean Rodriguez, Hawpe and even Mark DeRosa were taken.

Clay Buchholz - 203rd Overall - Really A Big Papi
I give him a lot of crap - much of it deservedly so - but this was a great pick for Steve as Buchholz ended the year #52 overall.

Worst Pick:

Ellsbury-Markakis-Abreu-Span - 28, 68, 73, 108th overall - Don't Pull
Hard to pick just one bad pick this year so I went with a position. More balls made solid contact with Jon's chin this year than with the bats of these four players. With these 4 picks, Jon insured himself an OF with less Power than Joshwhite and Godsill have combined in their marriages. When drafted, the best he could have hoped for was 50-55 homers out of these four. He'd get 35 and replace 2 of them. He should have replaced 3.

Honorable Mentions:

Damon - 95th overall - Too Big To Fail
You think everybody knew to avoid Damon, whose production was sure to take a huge dive with age and a full season away from homer-friendly Yankee stadium. Almost everybody did. But Frank still took the bait and while the 10th round is late, he left a lot of far more productive players on the board to grab an old OF who would finish the season ranked as the 63rd OF, 234th overall, behind such notable ball-blasters like Will Venable, Cody Ross and Hideki Matsui. By June 10th, Frank realized his mistake and cut Damon loose.

Michael Cuddyer - 59th overall - SexWithAsianWives
While Price was a great pick, Cuddyer was not. Coming off a surprising 32 homers season, Jordan jumped all over Cuddyer - like Joshwhite on a great mouthwash sale - treating him like the offensive keystone that Cuddyer simply was not. Immediately mocked for his choice (and hair style and personality), Jordan endured a "return to earth" season from Cuddyer that saw him hit only 14 homers.

Peavey/Berkman - 70th and 71st overall - Tickle Me Krusty
I remember taking Peavey because "I didn't like Ubaldo's K/BB ratio." Just a bad pick. I'd never owned Peavy and I thought he would be huge in Chicago. He was not. I then compounded that folly by flat out ignoring age and trends in selecting Berkman. I could have had Ubaldo and Ethier/Cruz. These picks were a bigger waste than Joshwhite's honeymoon suite.

Grady Sizemore - 25th overall - 4th Times A Charm
The first three rounds are about guaranteed production. Nothing about Sizemore in 2010 said "guarantee." He was coming off of an injury plagued down season and his status at draft time was encouraging but not definite. Maybe Joshwhite is just one of "Grady's Ladies." Maybe I'm just upset that he made us draft him in another league where we co-manage a team and drafting Sizemore singlehandedly kept us out of first place. But more likely, joshwhite should have taken a more reliable player with this pick like Votto, Zimmerman or Cano. Sure, Grady got hurt, but before that, he put up a .560 OPS - an OPS so low, it would actually lose to Steve and Jon's teams most weeks.

Best Free Agent Addition

Jose Bautista - Give Me My Freedom - May 8th
Who saw 54 homers coming? Nobody. But Dave was the first believer in the league and he cashed in, getting 48 Bautista homers on his roster and enjoying the 9th overall ranked player for almost 5 full months.

Other top additions:

Adrian Beltre - 19th Overall - Sophomore Slumps - Maybe SafeCo Field really did kill Beltre's production...

Mat Latos - 31st Overall - Give Me My Freedom - Dave had the hot hand on the FA Wire this season. He ended up owning the highest ranked hitter (Bautista) and pitcher who were NOT drafted. That's impressive.

Chris Young - 40th Overall - Tickle Me Krusty - I'd never been a big fan of his, but someone had to take over for Berkman and Garrett Jones.

Aubrey Huff - 42d Overall - Really a Big Papi - Great addition for Steve's power-starved squad. Huff ended up hitting the third most homers of anybody on Steve's team. A great FA find for Steve and the Giants.

Trevor Cahill/Delmon Young - 46th, 51st Overall - Too Big To Fail - Not a lot went right for Frank's team this year (i.e. the drafting of Fielder, Rollins, Lind, Bay, Aramis Ramirez, Lackey, Beckham, Stephen Drew and Trevor Hoffman - a veritable who's who of disappointing players). But Young, another player universally given up on, provided a glimmer of hope as Frank saw possibility, grabbed him and enjoyed the career breakout everybody had been waiting for. And Cahill (the second highest ranked undrafted SP) took a huge step forward for a young Oakland team and helped settle Frank's pitching staff for a second half run.

Worst Player Drop:

David Ortiz - The Olympdicks - May 27th
Having acquired Jason Bay in a trade, The Olympdicks cut Ortiz. Perhaps Olympdicks had simply stopped paying attention to Big Papi after his second consecutive slow April, during which Ortiz posted a less than stellar .548 OPS. But surely, Olympdicks had to notice what Ortiz was doing in May. At the time Mike dropped him, Ortiz had already hit 9 homers and knocked in 24 runs since April dropped off the calendar. He was on his way to 32 homers and 102 RBI - numbers eclipsed by only 9 other players.
Meanwhile, Olympdicks spent the rest of the season cycling players like Ian Stewart, Jay Bruce, Beltran, and Colby Rasmus into and out of his Utility spot.

Honorable Mention:

Casey McGehee - Sophomore Slumps - April 4th
It could have been a story about a great draft pick, but instead, Godsill dropped his 24th round selection too soon (in fact, McGehee was the first player Godsill dropped), and Jon's Don't Pull team reaped the benefits as McGehee went on to post his first 100RBI season. But don't feel too bad for Godsill, he dropped McGehee for Matt Capps, who we all know sucks, but still somehow nailed down 40 saves and picked up a key vulture win during the finals to lead Godsill to victory.

* I couldn't find anything to say about Chris Fusco's Dustin Clay Off Papi squad. It featured no particularly great picks and no particularly bad picks. His best FA addition was Vernon Wells just before the season started. He didn't drop anybody foolishly either. While I feel a little bad about this, I take comfort in knowing that he couldn't care less what I think about anything and probably doesn't read this in first place.

Most Dominant Pitching Category Performances:
Tickle Me Krusty - K's: 18-6
4th Times A Charm - K/BB: 18-6
SexWithAsianWives - Wins: 17-5-2
Tickle Me Krusty - K/BB: 17-7
Don't Pull - Saves: 15-6-4

Worst Pitching Category Performances
Olympdicks - Saves: 2-19-3
Dustin Clay Off Papi - K: 3-19-1
Really a Big Papi - K/BB: 7-17
Dustin Clay Off Papi -Saves: 6-14-4
Olympdicks - WHIP: 9-15

Saves are a category that really divided teams. You either got them or you didn't.

Most Dominant Hitting Category Performances
GiveMeMyFreedom - SB: 16-5-3
Tickle Me Krusty - Runs: 15-7-2
Really a Big Papi - SB: 15-7-2
Tickle Me Krusty - OPS: 16-8
Olympdicks - SB: 14-6-4
Sophomore Slumps - Runs: 15-8-2
Dustin Clay off Papi - HR: 14-7-3

Dustin Clay Off Papi was only over .500 in two offensive stats: Homers and OPS. Nothing else. Kind of strange. Steve had 35 more steals than Dave, but still posted the second best record in the category.

Worst Offensive Category Performances
Really a Big Papi - RBI: 7-17
Too Big To Fail - Hits: 8-16
Don't Pull - SB: 6-15-4
Too Big To Fail - SB: 6-14-4
Don't Pull - Runs: 9-16

Surprising to see a playoff team show up twice here. But less surprising considering his outfield.
Really a Big Papi finished the season with the fewest RBI in the league - 122 fewer than the team ahead of him (Olympdicks) and 247 fewer than the league leader (Sophomore Slumps).

Some Random Shit

Best Single Season Winning Percentage - All Time
1. Dave: .646 - 2006
2. Parsons: .636 - 2006
3. Godsill: .623 - 2009
4. Parsons: .610 - 2010
5. Parsons: .608 - 2009

- For the second consecutive season, Steve (Really a Big Papi) was dead last in the league in total HR, RBI and OPS. He also had the worst K/BB ratio and the second worst ERA. Impressive all around futility.

- Steve lost his first 6 matchups and 9 of his first 10. Frank won his third matchup and then didn't win again until early July, suffering through an amazing ten week losing streak.

- The longest winning streak belonged to my Tickle Me Krusty squad that won 7 weeks in a row.

- The best records against any single opponent were:
Tickle Me Krusty vs Olympdicks: 26-7
SexwithAsianWives vs. Sophomore Slumps: 26-9

- Dave Gass, Frank Chang and Chris Fusco have been in the league all 7 years we've played Head-to-Head and none of them has reached a final. Even Steve and Jon have each been there twice.

- Another #4 seed won the championship. That's three #4 seeds in 7 years. The most of any seed. Still only a single #1 seed has won it all, and only three #1 seeds have even made the final.

- Another year of bad luck for Dave (Give Me My Freedom). Last year, he missed the playoffs because someone missed the innings minimum and gave Jon's team an easy win in the last week. This year, Dave made the playoffs, but was bounced because Yahoo changed the tie-breaker. If the tie-breaker from 2004-2009 (ERA) was in place, Dave advances and Godsill is out in the first round. Dave is starting to resemble the Minnesota Twins of fantasy baseball. Always in contention, but just can't seem to get over the hump.

- Amazingly, it was this same new tie-breaker rule that allowed Godsill to win the final against Joshwhite, when once again, the previous tie-breaker rule would have gone against him.

For 2011

I would like to discuss the following changes:

1. Going with a weekly format instead of daily OR instituting an innings MAX as well as MIN. Starting 10 different pitchers in a week isn't exactly simulating a real baseball team.

2. I'd like to make the consolation bracket mean something. So in 2011, how about those 4 teams play for the #1 pick. So if you win the consolation bracket, you pick #1 the following year. Maybe they play for $25? Or we can just leave it how it is.

3. How can we make this league more trade friendly? Why don't people trade more?

4. Frank Chang will be leaving us for the greener pastures of a yahoo keeper league. He will likely be replaced by Adam Gittes - whom most of you know. Like Frank, Adam and I went to high school together and Adam was a member of the very first fantasy league Jon and I played in. A league in which we finished 3rd, but will forever be remembered for this statement: "You gotta take McGwire." (If anybody is curious, McGwire finished that year - 2002 - as a pinch hitter, with a BA under .200.)

We say goodbye to Frank Chang and we remember that in 7 years of Head-to-Head he never won a single playoff matchup and we wonder what the action on the waiver wire will be like without him.

The 2011 Draft Order Will Be:

1. Steve Danishevsky (Really A Big Papi)
2. Adam Gittes
3. Mike Danishevsky (Olympdicks)
4. Chris Fusco (Dustin Clay Off Papi)
5. Jordan Beldner (SexWithAsianWives)
6. Dave Gass (Give Me My Freedom)
7. Jon Fusco (Don't Pull)
8. Chris Parsons (Tickle Me Krusty)
9. Joshwhite (4th Time's A Charm)
10. Dan Godsill (Sophomore Slumps)

Enjoy your offseasons.

2009 Fantasy Season in Review

2009-10-18T23:09:00.015-04:00

Fantasy Baseball 2009: Where Idiots Found Glory (and Shame)

To quote Principal Seymour Skinner, "It is with a great sense of everything is now back to normal..." Last year was a mirage. It was a blip. An outlier. The Danishevsky brothers - genetically engineered to finish last in fantasy leagues - both reached the finals. But in 2009, order was restored, and they were back at the bottom.

And so begins the least read blog post in the modern world. Fewer people will read this (9) than find Sarah Jessica Parker attractive (1?). Enjoy and feel free to argue with me in the comments. Or simply stop talking to me.

Best Draft Pick:

Mark Reynolds by Backdoor Sliders: 208th overall, after Blalock, Lowell, Gordon, Cantu, Devine, Motte. Reynolds ended the year ranked 20th overall, with 44 homers and 20 steals. Reynolds was the 20th third baseman drafted and ended the year the 2nd most valuable. That's pretty good value for Godsill's Sliders.

2nd Best Pick:
Aaron Hill by Hamburger Earmuffs: 254th overall, after other MI's like Khalil Greene, Iwamura, Weeks, Orlando Hudson and Kelly Johnson. Hill went on to hit 36 homers with 108 RBI and 103 runs and finish ranked 26th overall. Not bad for a last round pick. If Joshwhite wasn't so annoying, this might be #1.

Honorable Mentions:

Zack Greinke by DonkeyPunchers: 117th overall. Jordan nabbed the #2 ranked player after a run of second tier closers like Kerry Wood, BJ Ryan and Bobby Jenks.

Justin Upton by Rayswillrepeat: 176th overall, after Nady, Chris Young, Lastings Milledge. Upton went 26-20 and finished the year ranked 47th overall.

To me, what constitutes the worst pick isn't a guy who gets hurt, because that's just bad luck. So you won't see Webb, Reyes, Beltran or any other Mets here. The worst pick is a pick that looked bad on draft day and looks even worse at the end of the year. Unfortunately for me the pick that best fits that description was made by me. I knew it immediately. In fact, I still don't quite know why I picked him. But I did and he did nothing for me or the Rays all year.

Worst Pick of the Draft

BJ Upton by Naggers: 32nd overall, before Youkilis, Crawford, Kemp, Halladay. Upton went on to steal 42 bases, but post a .686 OPS and hit basically the same number of homers he hit against the Red Sox in the '08 ALCS. Rarely producing and always complaining, Upton was even benched a few times, just for being terrible. I didn't want him when I drafted him and I don't want him now. He ended up ranked 165th overall. Not great value at #32.

Coincidentally, this is my 2nd straight year having the worst pick in the draft. Nice little streak to get going.

Also Bad Picks:

Alexei Ramirez by Backdoor Sliders: 33rd overall, before Crawford, Youkilis, Kemp, Halladay. Clearly, Godsill was distracted by my stupidity.

Pena, Uggla, Ludwick by DonkeyPunchers: 37th, 43rd, 57th overall, all before Dunn, Haren, Brian Roberts, Cliff Lee. DonkeyPunchers was a bad team. Some of that blame can fall on David Wright and his 10 homers, but most of it falls on this series of picks in the 4th, 5th and 6th rounds. And his subsequent selections Chris Davis, AJ Burnett and Vernon Wells.

Papelbon by Big Papi: 50th overall. Next closer was taken 64th, then steve takes another one 70th. That’s pretty clear proof that he took one too early. And hey, the best way to fix that problem is to exacerbate it.

Best Free Agent addition:

Adam Lind – Hamburger Earmuffs
Picked up on April 6th , Lind ended the season as the 26th overall player with a final line of .305, 35 homers, 115 RBI

2nd Best:
Andrew Bailey – Penny for your Smoltz
Picked up on April 19th, Bailed became one of the most dominant relievers in baseball, ending they season ranked 17th in Yahoo with 91 K’s, 28 saves, a WHIP under 1 and a K/BB approaching 4. Who saw that coming?

Honorable Mentions:

DonkeyPunchers: Ben Zobrist – May 18th
BigPapi: Jason Bartlett - May 3rd
Mountain Oysters: Huston Street - April 30th
You Guys Should Kiss: Garrett Jones – August 16th
Backdoor Sliders: Wandy Rodriguez – April 6th
Gay Boys: Shin-Soo Choo – May 14th
RaysWillRepeat: Michael Cuddyer – May 22nd
Naggers: Hanson – May 28th and Wieters – Sept 21st (without him, I don’t beat Godsill)

Worst Free Agent Add/Drop:

Hands down, no question here. Hard to imagine a simple roster transaction going worse than this one did for Mountain Oysters.

Apr 1 6:18am
Carlos Villanueva (Mil - SP,RP)
Add
Waivers
Mountain Oysters
no_paperwork
Apr 1 6:18am
Adam Lind (Tor - OF)
Drop
Mountain Oysters
Waivers

On April 1st, before the season started, Frank dropped Adam Lind, the eventual 26th most valuable player for Carlos Villanueva, the presumed closer while Trevor Hoffman was getting ready to go. Villanueva started hot with a win and save in his first two outings, before then allowing 6 runs in his next 3, losing the closers job, and basically being terrible for the rest of the year, finishing an impressive 959th on the Yahoo player rater. For those of you keeping track, there are 30 teams and 25 roster spots (5/6 of the year). That's 750 regular players. Basically, what Yahoo is telling us, is that you'd be better starting an injured player who won't even pitch than leaving Villanueva in your lineup.

Despite that, Frank surged late (36-10 over the last 4 weeks) and ended the regular season with the 3rd best record in the league.

Worst Trade

Naggers: This one is also a no-brainer. Unfortunately. On August 8th, I was looking for saves and acquired Kevin Gregg from Penny For Your Smoltz for Orlando Hudson. On August 11th, the trade was posted. 6 days later, on August 17th, Gregg was removed from the closer role and I dropped him. In his four outings on my team, he took 2 losses, gave up 5 runs and didn't record a single save.

Best Offense:

Tough one to call between You Guys Should Kiss and Naggers. Our records are close:

Jon: 93-51-6
Me: 89-55-6
He's got me by a little bit there. But I led the league in Runs, RBI and OPS, finished 3rd in homers, 3rd in hits and 4th in steals.
Jon didn't lead the league in any category. In fact, he was only as high as 2nd in two - RBI and OPS. He finished 5th in hits and runs, 4th in HR and dead last in steals. Is it possibly his record is due largely to luck? This one goes to the Naggers.

Best Pitching:
Backdoor Sliders had the best overall record as his pitchers combined to go 94-47-9. But Penny For Your Smoltz led the league in Wins, ERA, WHIP and K/BB, so it's gotta be his staff led by Halladay, Beckett, Lester, Weaver and Lilly. His cindarella run into the semifinals as the #5 seed wasn't that surprising. If only he'd gotten any hitting (mainly from Manny)....

Fun With numbers

On our league page, you can see the cumulative leaders in each category. I know what you're wondering: Did the teams with the highest totals in each category have the best records? Let's find out.

Runs
Highest Total: Naggers, 1142
Best Record: Naggers, 17-7-1

Hits
Highest Total: Mountain Oysters, 2153 (148 more than the next team)
Best Record: Mountain Oysters, 21-4

Homers
Highest Total: Hamburger Earmuffs, 334 (4th best record, 15-8-2)
Best Record: Backdoor Sliders, 19-6 (2nd most homers overall)

RBI
Highest Total: Naggers, 1133 (16-9 record)
Best Record: You Guys Should Kiss, 20-5 (2nd most RBI total)

Steals
Highest Total: Gay Boys, 188
Best Record: Gay Boys, 16-8-1

OPS
Highest Total: Naggers, .846 (14-11 record)
Best Record: You Guys Should Kiss/Mountain Oysters, 17-8 (2nd and 3rd in total)

So looking at this, what do we see? First, Frank's team had a shitload of hits. And also, of course that Jon is a lucky motherfucker. But also that the offensive stats pretty closely match up. Now the pitching....

Wins
Highest Total: Penny For Your Smoltz/Hamburger Earmuffs, 104
Best Record: Hamburger Earmuffs, 16-7-2

Saves
Highest Total: Big Papi, 138 (15-8-2 record)
Best Record: Backdoor Sliders, 17-4-4 (3rd highest total)

K's
Highest Total: Naggers, 1409
Best Record: Naggers, 19-6

ERA
Lowest Cumulative: Penny For Your Smoltz, 3.56 (6th best record at 12-12-1)
Best Record: Rayswillrepeat, 19-5-1 (4th best ERA)

WHIP
Lowest Cumulative: Penny For Your Smoltz, 1.21 (3rd best record at 15-10)
Best Record: Rayswillrepeat, 17-7-1 (4th best WHIP)

K/BB
Highest Total: Penny For Your Smoltz, 3.25
Best Record: Penny For Your Smoltz, 21-4

Pitching is different. Penny For Your Smoltz and Naggers had the best ERA's in the league and we went 12-12-1 and 11-14 respectively in ERA. By contrast, Hamburger Earmuffs and BigPapi finished 6th and 8th in cumulative ERA, and both went 14-11 in the category. How did that happen? I think it's all about matchups. Who your pitchers face can cost you in any given week.

Mountain Oysters and Penny For Your Smoltz had the most dominating performance in a single category - each going 21-4.

Unluckiest Team:

Gay Boys: Burdened with a terrible team name and hopes of a repeat, Gay Boys fell victim to an injury/underperforming plague, losing the following picks long term or just watching them disappoint:

Jose Reyes – 1st round pick, 36 games played
Lance Berkman – 2nd round pick, career low in RBI and Slugging %
Carlos Quentin – 3rd round pick, 99 games played
Brandon Webb – 5th round pick, 1 start, 4 IP
Jake Peavy – 6th round pick, 16 games started

Fittingly, Gay Boys is a Mets fan. Hard to overcome a start like that. Injuries to his top 2 starters left him with way to many non-Santana Mets pitchers in his rotation. But if any team deserved this treatment, it was this one – a year after winning it all as the #5 seed with a sub .500 record.

Runner up:
RaysWillRepeat: Cruising into the playoffs, he lost the 6th and final playoff spot on the last week when BigPapi failed to reach the innings minimum against You Guys Should Kiss, sending Jon into the playoffs and Dave home for the winter. This is three years in a row not making the big dance for Dave. Rebuilding?

Add/Drop Notes:

Jon added Kenshin Kawakami 4 different times this season. April 20th, May 25th, June 7th and August 17th. For a guy who hates Japanese people, this is unusual.

Speaking of Japanese guys, Hideki Matsui was our league's most passed around player. Like a strung out crackwhore waiting for Bukake, Matsui let 3 different teams have their way with him this year: You Guys Should Kiss, Backdoor Sliders and Naggers.

8 FA closers put up 17 saves or more. Ryan Franklin and David Aardsma led the way with 38 each. These closers hammered home the benefits of not using a early round pick on the likes of Papelbon or Nathan. Though they do come with a lot more risk and higer ERA...

League Notes:

Hamburger Earmuffs and Mountain Oysters led the league with only 4 matchup losses all season. Impressive consistency. Earmuffs went 18-4, while Oysters went 16-4-2. The only team to beat them both? Backdoor Sliders.

Backdoor Sliders also had the best record against any opponent, facing DonkeyPunchers three times and savagely beating him 32-2-2.
Big Papi finished the season with the fewest RBI in the league (904). So of course he had the league's highest RBI total in one week with 70 in week 5. Not a great power year for Papi, as he had the fewest HR and RBI in the league as well as the lowest OPS.

Our league has been head to head for 6 years and this was first year that the top 2 seeds met in the finals.

Only once in those 6 years has the #1 seed won the championship.

2004: #1 vs. #3 - #3 won (Megan)

2005: #2 vs. #4 - #4 won (Steve)

2006: #2 vs. #5 - #5 won (Joshwhite)

2007: #1 vs. #6 - #1 won (Parsons)

2008: #4 vs. #6 - #4 won (Mike Danishevsky)

2009: #1 vs. #2 - #2 won (Parsons)

Amazing to think that #4 seeds have won more titles than #1 seeds.

Every seed but #6 has won the title. Moral: Just make the playoffs. (I'm pretty sure I wrote that same line in last year's roundup)

Also worth noting is Mountain Oyster manager Frank Chang. In these last 6 years, Frank has made the playoffs 5 times. He's never won a single matchup. He's 0-5 in the playoffs. How is that possible? Maybe he's the unluckiest owner. Like whoever owns the Bills, or whoever owns Steve.

Gay Boys only won 3 matchups all season. But one was against Naggers, the eventual league champ, over the last week of the regular season. The other two teams to lose to Gay Boys were You Guys Should Kiss and BigPapi.

Gay Boys also set a new standard for for terrible. His winning percentage was a shockingly bad .311, which is good for worst in our league's history.

Over the final 2 weeks of the season, in his consolation matchup, BigPapi hit 5 homers. FIVE. Over two weeks. 14 days. 5 homers. His team swung the bat like Torii Hunter in a key spot against the Yankees. (badly)

The Danishevsky brothers still have 2 more fantasy wins than the Fusco brothers.

Expanding to 10 teams made the league exponentially better. With fewer FA's, more competition and a third Jewish player in our midst, the league was greatly improved. I think the $50 made things better, too. People were definitely a little more intense come playoff time. I know that I for one was ready to murder Jon if he'd beaten me in the Semis.

Just a reminder, that our draft order for next year will be:

1. Gay Boys
2. Donkey Punchers
3. Big Papi
4. Rayswillrepeat
5. Hamburger Earmuffs
6. Mountain Oysters
7. Penny For Your Smoltz
8. You Guys Should Kiss
9. Backdoor Sliders
10. Naggers

Let the comments begin?

2008 Fantasy Review

2008-10-07T16:13:00.013-04:00

So another fantasy season has come to an end. And an unusual end at that. This season offered us a lot of fantasy firsts - including a first time league member winning the title. But most importantly, 2008 showed us that the Head-to-Head format, while undoubtedly more exciting, is the least accurate measure of team quality in fantasy sports.

This year's review was a little harder to write than usual. My annual whipping boy Steve made a cinderella run to the finals from the 6th seed (his highest regular season finish in 3 years). And since that run went right through my team, which I grossly mismanaged, I find myself in the odd position of having to be harsher toward myself than to Steve. This feels completely wrong, but much like spooning with Jon on a cold winter night (or let's face it, even a mildly cool early autumn night), my heart tells me I have to do it.

First off, let's get the regular awards out of the way.

BEST DRAFT PICK
Dustin Pedroia (145th Overall - Yanks Suck): Dave snagged the 14th overall player at a shallow position with this 19th round gem. Selected after highly productive names like Kenji Johjima, Manny Corpas, Dontrelle Willis and Jeff Francoeur.

Honorable Mentions
Josh Hamilton (Little Moe Sizlak): 121st overall pick - 12th overall Rank
Tim Lincecum (3 Guys 1 Cup): 94th overall pick - 10th overall Rank
Roy Halladay (Beantown Boners): 70th overall pick - 3rd overall Rank
Evan Longoria (Mercenary...): 170th overall - should have held on to him.....

It seems odd that the two teams to make the finals didn't have a single draft pick greatly exceed his draft position....

WORST DRAFT PICK
**For worst draft pick, I wasn't just looking just for someone taken high who didn't produce or got hurt like Hafner or Victor Martinez. I'm looking for picks that looked dumb when they were made and were proven more dumb by the end of the season.

Gary Sheffield (57th Overall - Little Moe Sizlak): There are earlier picks that ended up worse, but honestly, what the hell was I thinking. There are owners who like young guys (francis) and then there are owners like me who constantly think 3 years in the past. Sheffield had 2 good months last year. They were great months, but they did not warrant picking him, at the age of 39 and riddled with health and personality issues ahead of Cano (which didn't turn out any better), Oswalt, Lackey, Markakis and Halladay.

Also bad calls:
Carl Crawford (22nd overall - Beantown Boners): Selected ahead of a few guys named Pujols, Teixeira and Braun. Hello 8th place.

Eric Byrnes (57th Overall - Mercenary...): If ever there was a flash in the pan for 2007, Byrnes was it. Francis took the bait, clearly distracted if not blinded by my Sheffield pick just before it.

Dontrelle Willis (141st Overall - Wright Stuff): Simply put, he should not have been drafted at all. I guess drafting horrible pitchers with familiar names runs in the family, because Steve continues to draft Barry Zito each year (209th this year). Willis ended 2007 with 5.17 ERA and a WHIP of 1.60. Then he moved from NL to the AL, at which point Wright Stuff decided that Willis' three year trend of getting more and more atrocious was over and that he was a good bet for a turn around. Willis then threw out an ERA over 9 and a WHIP over 2.20. He should never be drafted. Least of all, ahead of players like Billingsley, Pedroia, Wang, Burrell, Damon and especially not by the eventual league champion. I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.

WORST KEEPER CHOICE
Eric Bedard (Little Moe Sizlak): A complete bust. I assumed CC would be tired in 2008. For 1 month, I looked like a genius. Unfortunately, the season lasted 6 months and I looked like a moron for the last 5.

BEST FREE AGENT ADDITION
It seemed like there were more All-Star seasons on the waiver wire than ever in 2008 and nobody befitted more than Heartfelt Elements who rode Cliff Lee (10th overall), Carlos Quentin (36th), Ricky Nolasco (57th), Justin Ducsherer (49th), Andre Ethier (78th overall) Evan Longoria (119th) and Geovany Soto (153rd) to the best record in the league.

Honorable Mentions:
Ryan Ludwick (20th Overall) - 3 Guys 1 Cup
Aubry Huff (26th overall) Beantown Boners
Nate McLouth (28th overall) - Yanks Suck
Carlos Delgado (39th overall) - Go Kcuf Yourself
Milton Bradley (81st overall) - Mercenary...
Edinson Volquez (113th overall) - Little Moe Sizlak (about all that remained of my pitching staff at the end)

*There is nobody on Wright Stuff that fits this description. Looking again at his team now, I have no fucking clue how he won this thing. What's most amazing is that despite not getting necessarily great value from anybody in the draft, he also made less than 15 add/drops during the season. Joshwhite had that many in April. So while he didn't get any steals in the draft, he didn't pick very many duds either.

WORST DROP
Dontrelle Willis (Wright Stuff): And even when he did make a TERRIBLE pick, he still held on tighter than Steve's wife to his balls. Wright Stuff held onto Willis until June 11th. JUNE 11TH!! At that point, Willis was sporting an ERA over 10, and had a K:BB ratio of 5:21. No, I didn't reverse those numbers. He didn't K his first batter until his 4th outing of the season. But Wright Stuff saw something he liked and giddily stashed Willis away on his DL, waiting, hoping for his return. The only person more confused and uninformed about Willis is Dave Dombrowski the Tigers GM, who gave Willis a 3 Year/$29million dollar extension that starts NEXT YEAR!

Also Bad:
Carlos Delgado (3 Guys 1 Cup): Hard to blame him, but this is the reason you would think. Dropped on May 10th, Delgado went on to post 4 straight months of 20+ RBI. While he has no business being in any NL MVP discussions, his second half surge carried Steve late in the season.
Not to mention the 1.297 OPS he put up against 3 Guys 1 Cup in the Semifinals.

BEST PITCHING STAFF
3 Guys 1 Cup: Led by Lincecum, Liriano, Lilly, Billingsley, Lidge and anybody else with a bunch of L's in their last name. Jon's staff had a won-loss record of 103-60-12 for the season.

BEST OFFENSE
Heartfelt Elements: This was probably the best team in the league. Once I relinquished first place after week 14, Joshwhite held it for the rest of the season. His offense finished with a record of 96-71-8. If he hadn't lost Carlos Lee and Carlos Quentin to injury, who knows what might have happened.

MOST DISAPPOINTING TEAM
Little Moe Sizlak started off hot with 5 straight wins and 10 wins in the first 13 weeks. I was in first place as late as July, but finished the year with 7 straight winless weeks, including the playoffs and consolation (in which 8 starts didn't even get me 40 innings) to finish 6th overall.
Looking back, I don't remember when exactly I lost control, but I do know that I ended the season counting on guys like Willie Harris and Omar Infante, clear cut evidence that something was horribly wrong.

League Notes:
For the second straight year, the defending champion was knocked out in the first round of the playoffs. By a woefully inferior team.

Steve reached the finals by beating two teams who were a combined 58.5 games ahead of him. Little Moe Sizlak - better by 19 games

3 Guys 1 Cup - better by 39.5 games

In his Semifinal matchup with Jon, Steve was losing 13-1 on Sunday morning. And he ended up winning.

Jon got a 2 hit, 3 walk complete game from Brett Myers late Sunday night, that should have clinched WHIP, the category that would determine the Semifinal winner. That same night, Steve got a no-hitter from Carlos Zambrano. It was the only September start in which Zambrano pitched more than 5 innings.

2008 marked the first time that BOTH the #1 and #2 seeds didn't make the finals.

2008 is also the only year that both teams in the finals were under .500 on the season.

In the 5 years that this league has been Head-to-Head, only once has the team with the best record won the championship (2007).

2008 was Dave's (Yanks Suck) second consecutive year missing the playoffs. This after 2006 when he had the best record in the league. Is he the new Steve? It's amazing what 0.5 games can do.

Steve's team (the #6 seed) made the playoffs by exactly 0.5 games. A feat accomplished when Mark Reynolds hit a meaningless home run in an 8-0 game that cost Beantown Boners half a point in the last week of the regular season.

Wright Stuff's 12-2 beating of Go Kcuf Yourself is now the most lopsided victory in our finals history, replacing my 10-2 soul crushing defeat of Jon last year.

In 5 years of playing head to head, Chris Fusco, Dave and Francis have each made it out of the first round and into the semi's only once and the 3 of them have never made the finals.

Amazingly, the eventual 8th place finisher, Beantown Boners put up monumental offensive numbers in his consolation showdown for 7th place. Numbers so impressive that he would have beaten the league champ during those last 2 weeks 8-6 if they had been matched up against each other. Sadly, he still finished 8th, on a tiebreaker.

8th place Boners also had the most top 20 players (4) of any team in the league. Surprisingly, league champion Wright Stuff had the fewest top 20 players, with just 1.

Wright Stuff's win becomes even more unlikely if you look at his cumulative finish in each category for the season:

Runs: 8th
Hits: 6th
HRs: 6th
RBI: 7th
SB: 4th
OBP: 8th
SLG: 7th

How the hell did he do it? He had one of the 2 or 3 worst offensive teams in the league. It must have been his pitching.

Wins: 6
Saves: 1
K: 5
ERA: 5
WHIP: 4
K/BB: 2nd (tied)
QS: 5th

His average pitching finish was 4th. So he won the league with the 6th or 7th best offense and the 4th best pitching staff.

Of course, it's really hard to mock anybody's team considering I added and dropped Juan Pierre 4 times this year. God help me.

What all this really tells is that the winner of the leauge in all but one year has just been the team that has gotten hot over the last month. The moral: Just make the playoffs.

LOOKING AHEAD TO 2009

We have some decisions to make for next seasons. Right now, we have too few teams, too many categories and too many roster spots. As of right now, I'm leaning toward making the following changes:

2 new teams in the league (no more keepers)

12 categories instead of 14 (no more Quality starts, and combining OPS and SLUG into OPS)

Regular sized rosters (no more 2nd MI, 2nd Util, 5th OF)

I'm also interested in making this a weekly league. That means that we set our rosters every sunday night at midnight for the upcoming week and then we cant make any changes to our active roster during the week. You can add/drop whenever you want, but if someone gets hurt on Monday, you're fucked. This is probably better because we're all getting older and we'll have less and less time for daily roster changes and pitchers going in and out and all that.

What do you think? Leave a comment and let me know.

Overheard on last night's ALDS game

2007-10-09T18:37:00.000-04:00

Chip Carey: "There's really no such thing as an 'easy save' in Major League Baseball".

Oh really??
So pitching 3 innings with leads of 11 runs, 21 runs, and 27 runs doesn't qualify as an "easy save"

'Cuz it seems pretty damn easy to me.

2007 Award Winners Special

2007-10-01T17:56:00.000-04:00

AL MVP	Should Win	Will Win
DWTHTB	A-ROD	A-ROD
Tent Time	A-ROD	A-ROD
What's interesting about this award is the fact that people weren't mentioned AROD as the clear winner back in April/May when the Yanks were struggling. Yet, all of a suddent since the AS Break, he's been the clear favorite (and rightfully so). Did his performance magically improve since then?? No, of course not. The team started winning because Cano stopped batting .240, Matsui decided he was able to hit more than 2 HR/month and the Yankees stopped throwing AAA level 22 year olds every 4th day. But yet somehow the above changes are due to AROD's value. A-Rod's overall number are astounding. He almost single handedly kept his team afloat in April and May and without him, Jeter, Posada and Rivera would be fishing right now. The only way he doesn't win it is if voters give it to Ortiz to make up for robbing him 2005, but that's probably not going to happen.

NL MVP	Should Win	Will Win
DWTHTB	Wright	Jimmy Rollins
Tent Time	Holliday	Rollins
Was Rollins really that more valuable to his team than Howard, Utley, or Rowand? Maybe Howard since he is a terrible defensive player, but Utley & Rowand each had great offensive seasons (better in RC/27 than Rollins) AND played difficult positions defensively (2B & CF) well. Maybe it's just me but I find it difficult to believe that a guy who isn't even the most productive (offensively) on his own team (5th in RC/27) is the MVP for an entire league. Because the Mets choked and the Phils won the NL East, Rollins will get the award. Hopefully, someone in the next century, the BBWAA will realize that MVP stands for Most Valuable Player, NOT best player on a team who made the playoffs. The big question is whether BWAA sent in their ballots before Monday's Wild Card Playoff Game. If they did, then Rollins will probably win, but if they waited (and they should have, as the game was technically a regular season game) then they all saw Matt Holliday send his team into the playoffs with a tying triple and an ill advised head first slide into home plate. He led the NL in batting average, RBI, doubles, extra base hits, Runs Created and was third in OPS. He had a great year, and it's hard to come up with a legitimate reason that Rollins is more deserving other than calling him a "spark plug," whatever that is. If he wins, it won't exactly be anything close to a travesty, but his .342 OBP out of the leadoff spot is not terribly impressive. (30-30 is, but that's beside the point)As far as David Wright goes, he had a great year, make no mistake, but you simply cannot vote for a player, no matter how good he was, if his team has just completed one of the biggest regular season collapses in baseball history.

AL Cy Young	Should Win	Will Win
DWTHTB	Beckett	Beckett
Tent Time	Sabathia	Sabathia
This one really is a toss-up between Beckett and Sabathia. While Sabathia does have more IP, more 7+ IP 2ER or fewer starts, and a lower ERA, Beckett edges him slightly in DIPS (3.04 vs 3.09----FYI--Chien-Ming Wang was 17th in the AL). Also, Sabathia got wins when he didn't pitch great: 4+ R (6/20, 7/19). So yes, he has gotten screwed in terms of run support relative to Beckett but some of those outings (6/10, 8/10, 8/14) cancel out with the 2 listed above. Sabathia led the AL in innings pitched, throwing 40 (Forty!) more innings than Beckett. That alone should secure him the hardware, but on top of that he had a slightly better ERA and led the world in K/BB ratio. If Sabathia wasn't saddled with Borowski trying to finish off his wins, there wouldn't even be a discussion.

NL Cy Young	Should Win	Will Win
DWTHTB	Peavy	Peavy
Tent Time	Peavy	Peavy
It should be pretty obvious that Peavy was the best pitcher in the NL this year AND will win the award. Besides leading the league in Wins, ERA and K's, he had a league-leading 1.03 WHIP and 2.67 DIPS. The easiest award this year. Webb is a solid, though distant second as Peavy's ERA is half a run better. Most impressively, Peavy allowed 54 fewer hits than innings pitched. Now if he could just start translating that success into the playoffs...

AL ROY	Should Win	Will Win
DWTHTB	Pedroia	Pedroia
Tent Time	Pedroia	Pedroia
Matsuzaka can be eliminated based on his last 8 starts. So that leaves Okajima (who will also be eliminated because of his struggles down the stretch), Delmon Young, and . Pedroia has played good defense at 2B (compared to RF for Young) and Brian Bannister. Pedroia has a great AVG/OBP/OPS and # of doubles compared to Young. It's true that Young bests him in HR, RBI, and Hits. But no player with a .320 OBP should ever win a postseason award. Ever. It comes down to Pedroia vs. Young and Pedroia's OBP of .380 obliterates Young's aforementioned .320. Plus, Pedroia obviously gets extra credit for playing so well in a pennant race and also not being a whining, spoiled, pain in the ass, who refuses to run out ground balls or even play the last game of the season.

NL ROY	Should Win	Will Win
DWTHTB	Braun	Braun
Tent Time	Tulowitzki	Braun
The only reason Tulowitzki shouldn't win this award is because he plays his home games in Colorado. +6 in HR, +20 in RBI, +.64 in AVG, and +.222 in OPS at home. They ended up almost equivalent from offensive production and Tulowitzki played great defense while Braun played terribly in the field. So on that basis, it should be Tulowitzki. However, we need to properly deflate his stats to take into account Coors Field and thus, this gives Braun a slight edge. Braun's offensive emergence was nothing less than historic, breaking Ted Williams rookie record for homers and having a higher OPS than David Wright and Miguel Cabrera. However, defense just has to taken into account, especially since Braun led MLB third basemen in errors despite playing only 112 games. He was the only qualifying third baseman with a Fielding Percentage under .900. His range factor was .18 worse than the next worst qualifier, and his zone rating is the only one under .700. He is a great offensive force, but he should be a left fielder. By comparison, Tulowitzki led MLB shorstops in Range Factor and was second to Vizquel in Zone Rating. Oh and he also hit 24 homers and knocked in 99 runs, including a 4 hit performance in the 1-game Wild Card playoff.

5 steps to proving John Kruk is an absolute moron

2007-09-17T22:10:00.000-04:00

Why is John Kruk giving his opinion on the AL Cy Young Race on BBTN? Seriously, what makes him more qualified than say you or I to espouse who should win the AL Cy Young award. To borrow a Simpsons quote from Martin Prince, I believe "A blindfolded chimp with a pencil in his teeth has a better chance" of predicting the deserving AL Cy Young winner.

1) Steve Phillips explains why Wins really aren't that important when it comes to evaluating a pitcher's performance: "The 16 wins to 18 wins, to me, that's a team differential, not a pitching differential"

2) John Kruk tries to explain why Chien-Ming Wang is the best pitcher and flat out lies:

"He's giving all these stats about Escobar, you have to remember he's pitching in a division that is weaker than the AL East....Chien Ming Wang has pitched against the Red Sox, against the Orioles, pitched against Toronto, three teams that can score some runs." (emphasis added).

AL EAST: Avg runs/team for non-NY Yankees = 725 or 4.86 runs/game

AL WEST: Avg runs/team for non-Anaheim Angels= 728 or 4.87 runs/game

And TEX, SEA, OAK are all better offensively than both Toronto and Baltimore.

3) John Kruk admits he not only doesn't understand advanced pitching metrics, he doesnt' even understand WHIP. Fucking WHIP. One of the five original fantasy baseball pitching stats. You add BB's and Hits and divide by IP. Is it really that difficult to understand? Could your average 6th grader understand WHIP and how to calculate it? YES. Could a 46 year old washed up former baseball player turned analyst? NO. Sadly, no.

4) Steve Phillips tries again valiantly to explain why Run Support matters for a pitcher's won-loss record. "He's won by 4 or more runs in 15 of those 18 wins. That is the offense supporting CMW, it's not his extraordinary pitching."

5) Kruk concludes that because CMW has won most of his games with large margins of victory (a possible sign that he gets large amounts of run support and therefore large #'s of wins which he doesn't necessarily deserve), he should therefore give up even more runs in order to bolster his Cy Young chances. In other words, he should pitch even worse than he presently has in order to get more consideration for the best pitcher award--since he would then have more closer games.

BONUS: Orel Hershiser explains that pitchers sometimes give up runs in order to win a game. And that they give up home runs to stay in games longer, because naturally giving up a HR is a great sign to your manager, "Hey, I'm still going strong, I just gave up that HR on purpose, keep me in here"

"Clueless Joe" Morgan

2007-08-01T00:05:00.001-04:00

Get it? It's a play on Shoeless Joe Jackson...anyways, the alternate title was "Joe Morgan--3 strikes you're out" but then I realized that Joe has already had about 800 strikes.

Strike #1: From today's chat 7/31/2007:

Chris (Tampa): Does adding Teixeira to the Braves lineup give them one of if not the most potent lineup in baseball?

Joe Morgan: (11:23 AM ET ) No, there are better lineups than the Braves--the Tigers, the Mets. He may help their lineup, but it doesn't make them the best.

Let's do a little comparison (note this is without Teixeira, so this is with Salty/Thorman at 1B)
Runs - Braves 506, Mets 481
OPS - Braves .764, Mets .756
TB - Braves - 1574, Mets - 1518

Now you're probably thinking, well what about park effects, cuz the Mets play in a pitcher's park so their numbers overall could be down because their home numbers would skew them lower (although so far this year according to ESPN Park Factor Turned Field is playing more like a pitcher's park than Shea Stadium)...so let's compare the Road Splits (since these should theoretically be similar since they each play in same road ballparks roughly the same number of games).

Runs - Braves 279, Mets 254
OPS - Braves .786, Mets .753
TB - Braves 866, Mets 778

So the Braves have clearly been a better offensive team this year, at least according to Joe's requirements "batting average really is secondary, the most important thing is run production" (primarily due to the fact that Reyes isn't homering as much and Delgado has been struggling--or not struggling in his own words) and now they are going to start Teixeira (7.69 RC/27) over Thorman (3.41) and Saltalamacchia (4.73).

Strike #2: From Joe's chat 7/24/07

Kevin (Hamler, OH): Do the Tigers have enough bullpen pitching without Zumaya and Rodney to make a serios run at a world championship?

Joe Morgan: That is hard to say because you never know who is going to step up. But if they get those guys back I think they will win it all. At the moment it is very hard to tell what is going to happen in Detroit. But at this point I think they may be the best team in baseball and that is even considering the hot streak the Yankees are on.

Notice Joe says that Detroit may be the best team in baseball...theoretically, the best team in
baseball usually makes the playoffs (not always, but usually)..Then later in the Chat

ben (new york): Joe- who are your playoff teams

Joe Morgan: I can only name a couple. I say Boston, Dodgers, Mets, and I would say the Yankees or Cleveland. But the Angels always make a good run. Those are the teams for now.

Notice that Detroit is coincidentally absent...as in the Indians are going to win the division from "may be the best team in baseball" and the Yankees will overtake "may be the best team in baseball" for the Wild Card...

Strike 3: From today's chat 7/31/2007

Charlie (NYC): Joe, do you think that the Dmitri Young extension by the Nationals was a good move?

Joe Morgan: You have to keep talent if you're going to build, even if you're going to trade him later for value. He's been their best hitter, so yes, I think it was a good move.

While it is possible that Joe is referring to the choices of
*Sign Dmitri Young to a contract extension
*Not sign Dmitri Young to a contract extension and let him leave the team

any normal, person who follows baseball realizes that the question was really between
*Sign Dmitri Young to a extension
*Trade Dmitri Young to a contending team for prospects

I won't bother going through and explaining the obvious reasons why the Nats should have traded him for prospects (difference in wins to Nats from Young over next 2 years is minimal compared to potential prospect impact over next 6 years, Young will theoretically have to play OF if Nick Johnson ever heals, Young is having a career year unlike any he has ever produced before) since Keith Law did an excellent job spelling it all out a couple of days ago here. But I would love to see a poll and see how far in the minority Joe is on this decision. 80-20, 90-10. I'd bet somewhere in the middle.

Finally, I would just like to point out that the title of reference for Joe in the chats and such on ESPN.com is "hall of famer". As if being in the Hall of Fame somehow qualifies him to discuss and analyze baseball on a regular basis and as we all know it clearly doesn't, based on the number of times Joe has answered with "I don't know", "I haven't been able to see much this year", and "It's hard to say really".

Peter Gammons = Delusional Jeter lover

2007-07-12T12:36:00.001-04:00

So Peter Gammons has a column up today where makes some of the worst declarations we have seen in a long time...

"So Derek Jeter has now played in eight All-Star games and the American League has won them all, except for the tie in 2002."
Peter, have you ever heard the phrase "correlation does not equal causation"? To try and tie Derek Jeter as the sole reason/factor why the AL has won the last 10 AS games is just ludicrous. This is the kind of crap I would expect from Kevin Kiernan or Murray Chass. Guess the AL's overwhelming record in interleague play is just coincidence..or Jeter has a magical influence on all the AL teams who have been destroying the NL ones...just ridiculous.

"Whether or not Sabean wishes to continue is not clear, but the man has done a phenomenal job. "
Hello?? Am I the only person who sees the Giants the last 3 years as the oldest average teams in the majors? Or the as the team traded away Liriano (future potential star), Boof Bonser (mid-level #4-#5 starter) and Joe Nathan (AS level premier closer) for 1 year of an above average catcher, Pierzynski. That terrible trade alone should relegate him to the bottom half of all GM's in baseball much less his job of assembling old and unproductive teams the last 3 years. Oh and he paid $16 million/year to a guy with 0 oustanding contract offers. Last but not least, the $17 million he is paying for a starter with an ERA+ of 88 and a WHIP of 1.45 who strikes out barely 4 guys per start.

10 Biggest Pitching Fantasy Suprises

2007-06-06T23:05:00.000-04:00

Similar to the surprising hitters post, this is meant to highlight pitchers that may be slipping under the radar this year. Again, this is not to highlight people like

Randy Wolf (W, K's) – It’s been years since Wolf was a productive pitcher, but so far this year he’s been excelling especially in Wins & K’s. Yes, we all know wins are a fluky category which can change dramatically by the end of the season, but his ERA/WHIP are respectable (4.06/1.32) and he’s average over 1K/IP.

Zambrano (W) – Yea, everybody knows he’s been getting lit up a lot this year, and his ERA/WHIP are not what you drafted for a starting pitcher. But he does have 7 wins which leaves him with plenty of time to get close to the 16 he had last year.

Valverde (SV) – If asked to name who is 2nd in saves (behind Cordero of course), how many people would name Valverde? He is with 21 and he’s also striking out more than 1 batter/IP. Yes, he’s has some meltdowns but 20/23 is pretty damn good so far.

Borowski (SV) – This is a prime example where his average stats don’t tell the whole picture. Normally when you see a closer with an ERA over 6 (Jose Mesa, Valverde last year, Julio, etc..) it’s time to bail out. But it isn’t the case here. Borowski has only blown 2 saves (technically the AROD Grand Slam wasn’t a save chance when the 9th started). 10 of his 18 ER have come in 2 games—1 BS and the AROD game. Besides that Borowski has been solid and right there among the AL leaders in saves.

Burnett (K's) – His ERA/WHIP are decent, but Burnett has been striking out batters at an amazing pace. He’s already had 4 double-digit K games and in addition 2 8-K and 1 9-K games.

Matt Morris (W/ERA) - Another pitcher that is putting together a fine season completely under the radar. Although he’s not striking people out, Morris has 7 wins, a very solid 2.56 ERA to go with a decent WHIP. Pretty sure he’s not going to keep this up all season, but you know what they say: strike while the iron is hot.

Ian Snell (ERA/K's) – He’s actually ranked ahead of Santana, Verlander, Escobar, Smoltz, Bonderman, Brandon Webb, and others because of his K’s 78 and his great ERA/WHIP 2.63/1.14. Probably won’t end up with more than 12-13 wins because he plays for the Pirates, but all the other peripherals are great.

Rich Hill (ERA/WHIP) – Hill had a great start to the season, then a so-so patch, but has turned it on as late to be a top-8 SP. His good ERA 2.81 and phenomenal WHIP 1.01 to go with 78 K’s show that he’s the real deal. Should hopefully get some more wins as the season progresses.

J.J. Putz (SV, ERA, WHIP) – Putz has been even more dominating than last year with his 1.19 ERA and .66 WHIP. He’s right up there for the AL lead in saves with 19 and we haven’t heard or seen anything regarding that elbow problem he had back in the spring.

Isringhausen (ERA/WHIP) – Isringhausen hasn’t piled up the saves as the Cardinals haven’t been a good ballclub, but he’s been just as dominant as some of the other closers. He’s only given up runs in 4 appearances (out of 25 total) and only 2 runs or more once leaving him with an ERA/WHIP 1.80/.84. He’s blown a total of 1 save so far and has performed very well so far.

10 biggest Offensive Fantasy Suprises

2007-06-06T22:55:00.000-04:00

The purpose of this article is not to point out individual players who are performing much better than their preseason projections. Rather it is to highlight stats/accomplishments which are flying under the radar, but are quite remarkable. Thus, Mike Lowell or Kevin Youkilis wouldn't qualify for this list even though they are having great seasons which far outweight pre-season expectations.

Magglio Ordonez - Everyone knows that Magglio is having an amazing season. But the most suprising stat is the number of runs he has scored, 50. He is on pace to score 140 which would be unparalleled for a cleanup hitter. Of the top 10 in MLB in runs, every player bats 1 or 2 except for Sheffield (discussed below) and AROD. (ed note: Yes, Youkilis has been batting in the #5 spot as of late, but the large majority of his runs 34/43 were scored from #2 position).

Sheffield - Just like Magglio, everyone should know now about Sheffields early season struggles which have now been corrected. But just how much has he turned it around? He leads MLB with 53 Runs and is on pace for 20 SB which would be his most since 1990.

Eric Byrnes - Byrnes is currently outperforming several prominent OF including Beltran, Crawford, and Soriano. He is on pace for solid 5 category season including 25 HR, 31 SB, and 90 RBI and his numbers, at this point, are virtually identical to BJ Upton, who many people should be aware of.

Dan Uggla - Uggla has quietly put up good numbers in Runs, HR, and RBI despite a slow start to the season. Currently on pace for 137 Runs, 34 HR and 100 RBI. While that pace will surely cool, he is the 3rd best 2B and probably falling under most people's radar screens.

Carlos Pena - Pena has been slugging like crazy since getting regular playing time and has gone 12-32 in only 45 games which would work out to 43-115 over a full season. Granted he won't come near to that since he has missed 13 of the teams first 58 games, but with everyday playing time he appears on his way to 30-100.

Gary Matthews JR- Everyone thought that one career year coupled with the taint of HGH and leaving a hitter friendly ballpark would hurt Matthews. So far, it hasn't and he is even outperforming last year's career highs. The 8 HR so far aren't out of line with previous years, but the 38 RBI (106 pace) and 9 SB (25 pace) are. Who would have thought that Matthews has more SB than Beltran, Abreu, Soriano and more RBI than Manny, Ibanez, Matsui, Beltran.

Xavier Nady - Nady is have a solid, but unspectacular season so far. But if you look at his HR/RBI numbers you see 25/98 pace; very suprising for a guy who bats 5th/6th for one of the worst offenses in baseball.

Bengie Molina - Everyone who follows MLB closely is aware of the starts of Russell Martin, Posada, and Victor Martinez. But how many know that Bengie Molina is 4th in RBI with 33 (on pace for 92)? He has been virtually identical to Pudge except that he trails by 7 runs, but has 20 pts in AVG.

Ichiro - The surpsising part of Ichiro's season so far isn't the 25 game hitting streak or the 7 SB he had in one week. It is the fact that he has 29 RBI so far, on pace for 81. He is at or above the likes of Vernon Wells, Sizemore, Matsui, Bonds, Burrell, and Abreu so far this season.

Just one final note I'd like to point out. While it's true that some hitters are off to amazing starts, it is also true that many will not keep up their projected pace over the rest of the season (and we understand that). So keep in mind, that no, Ichiro isn't going to end up with more RBI than Vernon Wells or Carlos Pena with more HR/RBI than Andruw Jones (barring some of injury of course). However, it is interesting to go back and look at what has happened so far this year and what may have been happening "under the radar"

More Joe Morgan Idiocy

2007-06-04T10:09:00.001-04:00

From the Red Sox-Yankees game 6/3/2007 from our resident expert, Joe Morgan:

"Guys who walk enough lot, do not end up with 3000 hits..."

(ed note: We fixed the order of the quote and so this post has been slightly edited from its original form...also, yes, Joe did say "walk enough lot" )

So we hear at Real Baseball Blog present a list of all MLB players who walk a lot and DID end up with 3000 hits

	# of BB's - BB Rank		# of BB's - BB Rank
Ricky Henderson	2190 - 2nd	Hank Aaron	1402 - 23rd
Carl Yastrzemski	1845 - 6th	Tris Speaker	1381 - 27th
Stan Musial	1599 - 11th	Rafael Palmeiro	1353 - 29th
Pete Rose	1566 - 13th	Eddie Murray	1333 - 31th
Eddie Collins	1499 - 17th	Al Kaline	1277 - 39th
Willie Mays	1464 - 18th	Ty Cobb	1249 - 44th
Wade Boggs	1412 - 22nd	Dave Winfield	1216 - 47th

So there you have it folks. 2 out of the top 6 career leaders in BB's got 3000 hits. Completely contrary to what Joseph Leonard Morgan proclaimed. Also, he mentioned Babe Ruth and Ted Williams as two examples of this. Just like to point out that Babe Ruth ended his career 127 hits shy of 3000 (2873); a total he would have presumably reached had he begun being a full-time hitter earlier than his 6th year in MLB. Also, Ted Williams ended up with 2654 hits (346 short), which again he would have presumably reached had he not missed 3 complete years (1943-1945) and major parts of 1952 and 1953. So even those aren't valid examples. Also just like to point out that Bonds should reach 3000 hits next year (assuming he doesn't retire) and that would Joe as the only one of the top 5 in BB's that is nowhere near 3000 hits. Can someone please explain to Joe that just because something is true for him, it doesn't mean that it is true for everyone else...So once again, Joe, you my good sir, are completely and totally wrong.

Worst Baseball Article Ever..

2007-06-02T00:23:00.000-04:00

So, some guy wrote a post here giving 10 reasons why the Yankees will win the World Series. It's true that the Yankees do have a potent lineup once Abreu and Matsui start hitting. It's also true that they used 12 different SP's so far this season and going into Friday were tied for last in the AL East. So here goes...

<1> Rounding up, this means the Yankees must make up 3.5 games a month for the next four months. That’s only a game a week. Doesn’t seem that all that difficult when you put it in that perspective.

No team has ever come back from over 14 games back this late in the season, much less one that has used 12 different starting pitchers this season.

<2>What this leaves is a lot of players who are due (Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, and Robinson Cano) to reach their usual productive seasons. I hate to be the team that plays the Yankees when three or four of these guys start to click.

Damon is injured, so I doubt he's going to return to form until he rests; Abreu was just never that good to begin with. And Posada is playing way over his head, so even if Matsui starts heating up, that should be negated by Posada's decreased production, unless you believe that 36 year old catchers can win batting titles.

<3>Just by saying that, Jeter proves once again to be an inspiration for his teammates and will continue to be just that as he leads his team into the playoffs.

This doesn't even merit a response because its so laughable..yes, downright HAHA laughable. But seriously, I'd love to see the explanation how Jeter's "inspiration" is going to fix an overworked bullpen in September or the fact that Abreu is Slugging under .300.

<4> Whether it be the distractions with steroids or his all-around poor play, Jason Giambi is not helping the Yankees.

Does he help the Yankees more than Kevin Thompson or Melky Cabrera does offensively??? Because those are his current replacements...

<5> In this past stretch, the team has gone 3-12, now opening the door up for both the Cubs and the Pirates.

Let me see if I get this straight....letting your lead on a team that is 25th in MLB in Runs Scored, 29th in OBP, and 27th in SLG %, get down to 7 1/2 games is "opening up the door"??? Yes, we all know winning and losing streaks happen over a season, but when teams are still 7.5 games out of first place, they still have some ground to make up.

<6>But this isn’t any man. This is Roger Clemens. Three years off a Cy Young Award, the Rocket is back and the man is ring hungry.

If Clemens is "ring hungry", then why did he choose a last place team that is 14.5 games out of first place and 7.5 games out of the WC to pitch for. The Astros and Red Sox are both closer to making the playoffs than the Yankees currently.

<7> AROD

Yea, AROD is a great player. No one is denying that..but explain how having him on your team is a reason that said team can win the WS. The Giants have Bonds; are they WS favorites?

<8> Boss

I still don't understand this one...Steinbrenner (who was supposedly going to back off of personnel decisions to give Cashman more leeway) is now so controlling that he will demand midseason trades which will send the Yankees to the WS. And Helton?? I thought you guys had enough overpaid, declining production 1B with multiple years left on their contracts...

<9> "His secondary leadership will prove invaluable to the team in the long run as they will find themselves in the middle of an exciting race this summer."

Again, I'd like to hear how Posada's "secondary leadership" will bring Abreu's SLG % over .300 or how he is going to improve a starting pitching staff which is 26th in Quality Starts. Or the fact that the Yankees have 10 Blown Saves, for an impressive 29% Save Percentage---which is actually less than half of the next worst team, the Cubs.

<10> "the team still wore pinstripes, shaved the bottom of their lip, and acted like champions. As players start to turn it around, we will find that the Yankees will be there."

Just like the past 6 years when they won..oh wait, they haven't won any WS titles in the past 6 years.

What a moron...

Peter Gammons and a bad analogy

2007-05-28T23:05:00.000-04:00

We like Peter Gammons here at REALBBBB, we really do, but there's just one thing I saw in his latest column which had to be mentioned:

"But these are two very good, fun teams. Sizemore is the Derek Jeter of The Rustbelt,"

The only problem with that analogy is that it is dead wrong on 3 counts.
1. Sizemore hits for power, Jeter clearly doesn't
2. Sizemore is a very good defensive, whereas Jeter is not. Yes, we know he has won 3 Gold Gloves, but look at any advanced Fielding Metric (+- system, FRAA, Range Factor) and Jeter is average at best)
3. Sizemore is not overhyped in the national or even local media like Jeter is. Take a poll of national beat writers and see how many list Jeter as one of the top 10 players in the game and how many list Sizemore. Has anyone ever talked about Sizemore's "aura" or "prescence" or as a "True Indian"?? No, didn't think so..

More Proof that former baseball players are terrible analysts

2007-05-05T09:25:00.000-04:00

Exhibit A-John Kruk on BBTN on Wednesday(?) maybe saying that Vlad Guerrero was AL Player of the Month. Not Alex Rodriguez. You compare the Numbers.

Player	HR	RBI	AVG	OPS	RC
AROD	14	34	.355	1.297	30.3
Vlad Guerrero	7	23	.366	1.165	24.3

But because the Yankees were in last place, Kruk asks, the Yankees are already in 5th, where would they be without AROD??

The real statistic to compare regarding each team's success would be this:
TEAM ERA LAA 3.65 (8th in baseball); NYY 5.02 (27th).

Exhibit B: From BBTN, on Friday May 4th, 11 PM edition. The host (I forget his name) asks Buster Olney and Fernando Vina to name the three best pitchers (it might have been NL--I forget) at this point in the season. NOT overall in baseball, but so far through the first 4 1/2 weeks of the season. Olney named Olswalt, Hudson, and Rich Hill. Vina named Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, and..........Carlos Zambrano (is it just a coincidence I had all 3 of these pitchers on my 1st place fantasy team last year?). Yes, the same Carlos Zambrano who is 87th in ERA (5.80), 3rd in walks (22), who K/BB ratio is a miserable 1.32, has a WHIP of 1.61, and a DIPS of 6.26 (which ranks right up there with other standouts like Kei Igawa, Tomo Ohka, and Sidney Ponson). Yet he is one of the 3 (or 6 because Buster gave his 3 picks first) best pitchers so far this year...

Joe Morgan--babbling fool

2007-05-02T20:41:00.000-04:00

Joe Morgan has a long documented history of saying things which are completely ridiculous, weird, ambiguous, and downright laughable. But how often does he say something that is completely wrong/false multiple times in a row, only to finally admit his mistake when confronted with video evidence. Ladies and gentlemen, we have a winner. Flashback to Sunday April 8, 2007 Boston vs Texas on ESPN. Bottom of the 1st, Mark Teixeira up, count 2-2, take it away Joe and Jon Miller:

Morgan - “He’s asking for a fastball away”

Joe Miller – “Strike Three called , a fastball away it was and that froze Teixeira.”

Joe Morgan – “I don’t think that was really a fastball away, I think it froze him, but I don’t think it really was away; It was supposed to be away. Let’s take a look here Jon, the pitch was supposed to be away but it wasn’t. He threw him a lot of offspeed pitches……Now this is supposed to be away, but watch.

<ed. note: Was the pitch away???? Joe sure doesn't seem to think so. Click here to find out if the pitch really was away>

<well, Joe???> Oh wait, I guess it is away. It was away on the outside corner.”

Brilliant, just brilliant. Now if only someone could fax him a copy of the Moneyball cover page to prove that Billy Beane had not part in writing it, we'd be in business.

P.S. To see his idiocy in full visual and audible detail, go here and use your MLB.TV subscription. Fast forward to about 23:35 and enjoy the magic.

Why Play Fantasy Baseball?

2007-04-15T03:20:00.000-04:00

Why do we play fantasy baseball? Why do we put ourselves through this? Is it not enough to agonize over the teams we root for? Apparently it isn't, and we have to go out and create a team that's actually ours (and for the record, this is the only team that allows us to actually use the term "we" to describe it) to agonize over. I mean fuck, when will it end.

For the last 2 seasons, I've played in two fantasy leagues. This has quite literally driven me to the brink of my sanity. For some reason, this offseason, I joined a third one. I think I was so shocked when my wife encouraged me to do so, that I did it without really thinking about the consequences.

Already, not yet two weeks into the young season, I have suffered the following painful rollercoaster of emotions: A player on my team does something great, which excites me. Later, as I click around from team to team, I discover that this same player did this same great thing against me in a different league. My heart sinks. My stomach turns. I don't know how to root anymore. Surely, I can't be expected to make a list of such players every Monday morning to constantly remind myself to temper my hopes for their weekly production. Can I?

This of course pales in comparison to what has to be the granddaddy of all tough rooting situations. Your real team is winning in the bottom of the ninth inning. Your real team's closer is on to try and save the game. Two on, two out. Your fantasy hitter steps into the box. For a fleeting moment, a thought enters your mind. If this hitter should happen to tie or even win this game with a big hit, it won't be the worst thing in the world, because your fantasy team needs a little help offensively. At this exact moment, you've become a fantasy player. This thought that has crept and weaseled its way into your mind would not have been able to do so five years ago when your love of the game was pure and your interest in box scores was creepy. At this moment you realize that baseball is forever changed for you, as it was for a close friend of mine in 2004 when I got a call after Curt Schilling gave up 8 runs to Toronto in a painful loss for the Red Sox. "Well, at least Schilling's on your team" the greasy Italian cocksucker said, "so it's not that bad."

Of course, when you see your hitter chop a harmless grounder toward short, you feel nothing but relief, so your pretty confident that you're the same baseball fan you were before. Then your real team's shortstop boots the ball and the bases are loaded. Now you're nervous. Really nervous, because if shit happens now, you won't get anything out of it. You don't even think much of it when your runner on first base is pinch run for, because the struggling middle infielder coming up is about as dangerous as Hilary Duff. When you see the ball pop off of his bat and the pitcher point up, air rushes from your lungs and your whole body relaxes. Until you see your real team's center fielder run out of room in the gap and the ball sale over the fence for a walk off grand slam. Then the only thing you can feel is the big hard cock of the baseball gods working its way all of 16 inches up your clenched asshole. You realize that wasn't Hilary Duff up there, but something much more dangerous: her 16 year old younger sister, sitting provocatively with a bottle of Jack Daniels and two glasses.

But that's baseball. Those things happen. You'll go to bed at least ten times every season really feeling every inch of that baseball cock deep in your ass. And you'll know full well that it grew another 4 inches in length when you checked your head to head fantasy stats and realized that the same middle infielder who just tied up and mouth-fucked your favorite team tonight is comfortably sitting in the starting lineup of that dumb fuck you swore you'd beat this week.

Despite this, we keep playing. And we know we can't stop playing. Maybe it's just to laugh at the same stupid fuck in your league who keeps drafting Juan Pierre every year. Maybe it's just something to do at our computers when we aren't masturbating. Maybe we just want to justify our box score prowlings. Maybe we wish that we could still play the game ourselves. All I know is when I hear my wife humming along to the theme song to America's Next Top Model I feel like I wish I'd married my stat-tracker.

Erick Karabells' answers our fantasy questions...sort of

2007-04-09T18:33:00.000-04:00

So we've gotten mentioned in Keith Law chats, Rob Neyer chats, and now Eric Karabell takes a fantasy question from yours truly. Except that he completely missed the point I was trying to make. But that's ok, because at least other people see our reasoning now. Anyways, the question was posted here and it read as follows:

DWTHTB, *****, Fla.: "Eric, every time I hear you on ESPN Radio or read your blog, I hear you say 'When it comes to closers, saves are all that matters; the other numbers (ERA/WHIP) are irrelevant.' And for someone in a roto league, I would completely agree with you, because 1,250-1,600 innings can negate terrible outings like Jorge Julio on Thursday (1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB) and Chris Ray on Saturday (2/3 IP, 4 ER, 2 H, 1 BB). However, if you play in a head-to-head league (as I do), then you are completely wrong, and the advice is the exact opposite. Over 50-70 innings, you just don't have enough innings to balance out one or two bad closer outings. In my league last week, I had 10 starts. No starting pitcher gave up more than three earned runs, except Aaron Harang. Yet, I still lost ERA and WHIP. How? Bad closers. Those two outings mentioned above from Ray and Julio raised my ERA from 2.45 to 3.16 and my WHIP from 1.17 to 1.27 (my opponent had ERA/WHIP of 2.91 and 1.18). So excuse me if I discount your advice and don't immediately pick up every closer out there on the waiver wire to protect my ERA/WHIP."

(Ed. note: A bit snarky, but you'd be upset too if you lost 7-5 instead of won 7-5 because you picked up Julio AND Ray gives up a Grand Slam--the worst possible outcome--after getting 2 quick outs).

Eric: Josh's points could make sense, I suppose, except how does he know when the closers are going to get lit up? (You don't unless you own reliable closers like Rivera, Hoffman, Papelbon, K-Rod, Ryan, who never get lit up. Or if they do it happens once a year) I mean, it's easy today for everyone to say they say Julio's nightmare coming (which they didn't) (Yea, a guy who has lost the closer's role for 2 different teams in 2 different leagues, didn't see his blowup coming), but what about Ray? Didja see that coming? (No, but given the fact that he gave up 10 HR last year, I wasn't suprised after seeing the Grand Slam) I'm not going to punt saves in any league just to avoid the rare closing bombings. (Rare for people like Rivera, Hoffman, K-rod, and other reliable CP. Not rare for people like Julio, Dempster, etc..) Josh got unlucky, that's all. Most closers didn't have weeks like Julio and Ray did. In fact, of the 29 pitchers who registered 50 saves the first week, the group allowed a total of 20 earned runs. Julio was not among them, blowing one save and getting removed from another, but Ray, B.J. Ryan and Francisco Rodriguez allowed nine of the runs. You couldn't have known to sit them (The point is that Julio shouldn't even has been on my roster, much less my bench), so my point stands. Yes, you can lose any week in a head-to-head format if a closer gets hammered, but they are still a whole lot safer on the ERA and WHIP than most starting pitchers. Say our e-mailer had avoided Julio, but used Jose Contreras instead (Julio actually gives you a chance to win one category, saves. What does Jose Contreras give you a chance at? Besides contacts with smuggled ballplayers). See the point?

Now, I'm going to post my full response below, but I'm also going to intermix certain answers/replies above to Karabell's thoughts in red.

My response emailed to Eric:

Eric,
First, thank you for responding to my question. But I think you missed the point of it a little bit. I wasn't complaining about Ray so much (as he is fairly reliable), but about Julio. My point was that in a roto league, you can wait and draft Dempster, Valverde, and Benitez in rounds 12-15. And its very likely that they could match Nathan, Papelbon, and Saito in the number of Saves. And at the end of the season you could still end up with a good ERA/WHIP with Dempster, Valverde, Isringhausen. However, in a H2H league, since lower ranked closers are much much more likely to have blowups (i.e more than 2 ER) than the top-tier closers, its much more likely that you could lose ERA/WHIP one week due to your closers. Obviously, no one knows when their closers are going to blow a game miserably. But the point is that it rarely happens to top level closers and happens frequently to low-level closers. Take the top 7 CP (Hoffman, Rivera, Papelbon, K-Rod, Nathan, Ryan, Street) and you have 7 appearances last year where they gave up more than 2 ER (4 of these from Street alone). So my point is that high end closers are so much more valuable in H2H leagues because they provide the reliability of not costing you ERA/WHIP during a week, whereas you can gamble with lower ranked closers and get just as many saves, but sooner or later they're going to give up 3 runs or like 4-6 hits in an inning and cost you ERA/WHIP. You constantly preach about only looking at a closer's save potential. I think this should be amended to say "Only look at....in Roto leagues". ERA/WHIP do matter in H2H leagues because 1 or 2 bad outings can cost you ERA/WHIP since the inning total is so small. I'd rather drop Julio and take the loss in saves to not run the risk of messing up my ERA/WHIP, than to keep Julio and potentially win saves, but possibly at the expensive of ERA/WHIP. Am I wrong here? Last year I had Lidge, Jenks, and Dempster and I lost ERA/WHIP 4 separate times because one or more of them had blowups. So that's why it I think good closers (i.e. the top half) are essential for H2H leagues. They won't have that 2/3 IP, 3 BB, 4 run outing and if they do, its once during the season, not 3-5 times like Julio, Dempster, et all.

We'll just have to wait and see.

Week 1 Recap - Steamed Hams (SH) vs IHATEYOUALL (IHYA)

2007-04-08T20:44:00.000-04:00

Batting: The categories were split 3-3 with Steals (IHYA 3-2) being the only tight one by week's end. IHYA's team got off to a hot start, but came crashing down the last 3 days as her OPS decreased by more than 100 points. Perhaps Grady Sizemore not playing had something to do with this. SH got across the board production in RBI and Runs as no one had more than 3 ex. Vlad whereas IHYA relied mainly on 3 players, mentioned below, for most of her output.

Studs:
SH--Guerrero, Ichiro (in only 4 games)
IHYA--McCann, Sizemore, Renteria

Duds:
SH--Andruw Jones (3-23, 0 HR), Johjima (1-9), Teixeira (4-16, 0 HR)
IHYA--Pujols, Roberts, Young (10-67, 1 HR, 4 RBI)

Pitching: SH had 13 starts and no pitcher gave up more than 3 ER (ex. Harang 5 ER in 5 2/3 IP on Sat), yet I still managed to lose ERA/WHIP due to my closers. Terrible outings from Julio (1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H+BB) and Ray (2/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H+BB) raised my ERA & WHIP from 2.45/1.17 to 3.16/1.28. IHYA pitching was either feast (Hamels, Hernandez, Santana, 1 of Lowe's outings) or famine (Carpenter, Lowe's other outing, Petitte). Incredibly high number of walks from Olsen, Verlander, and Haren (who had only 4 K's). IHYA picked up 4 saves from Salomon Torres. Yes, the absolute last closer taken in the draft outsaved 4 teams in the league by himself. I pulled ahead of IHYA in Wins & K's by sheer volume of 27 more IP, but lost all the ratios and saves as mentioned above.

Studs:
SH--Harang, Haren (although no Wins), Wainwright
IHYA--Hamels, Hernandez, Torres

Duds:
SH--Julio!!!, Olsen (he got 2 wins, but his WHIP and K/BB ratio were awful)
IHYA--Carpenter

Opening Day Thoughts

2007-04-03T11:54:00.000-04:00

Opening Day has come and gone and here is a list of highlights and lowlights regarding things new and old:

Adam Everett should not be batting in the #2 slot for any team ever. In the history of baseball. Period.
Yankee Fans care about nothing more than hating AROD. AROD sprints ~ 45 feet to try and catch a pop-up in the 1st because Posada and Pavano are too lazy to move. Yet, Jeter makes an error 1 inning later, which actually leads to Runs and there's nary a peep out of the Yankee faithful.
The Devil Rays bullpen is just as terrible as it was last year. How did Kazmir even win 10 games last year with that monstrousicity of pathetic arms?
Brad Lidge has about another month or so before he's replaced as closer
The Angels defense is still terrible. Absolutely terrible. From Dropped pop-ups which lead to HR to Gary Matthews Jr. dropping balls of the webbing of his glove, it's just atrocious.
Prime example of why Losses are a terrible fantasy category to use: Bobby Crosby truly fucked over Dan Haren. Haren had 1st & 2nd, 1 out in the 6th when he got a comebacker that was a tailor made DP ball. But Crosby let it slip off his glove (not even getting one out) and the M's produced 4 UER out of it.
The Braves bullpen held up. Which is a complete turnaound from last year.
Ben Sheets is really really good (we already knew that though). We'll see how long he lasts though.
Carlos Zambrano (5 BB) is still wild, the Indians offense is still amazing, and Joe Torre is still trying to get at least 5 IP from the Yankees #4 and #5 starters.

P.S. If you have MLB.TV, go watch the bottom of the 6th inning in the Rockies-D'backs game. Chris (b) Young tries to catch Jeff Baker's HR, but his glove ends up falling over the fence.

Joltin' Joe Cowley--The Trilogy

2007-03-21T19:05:00.000-04:00

So Joe and I (DWTHTB) have gone back and forth for about 6-7 emails and the sequence has basically broken down like this.

1) I send Joe an email pointing out all the things wrong/inaccurate/false with his latest reasons for voting Thomas ahead of Oritz and debunking all of his claims

2) Joe responds with some lame attempt at humor, comes up with even more bad reasons, makes fun of me for worshipping numbers or "slurping" numbers (Yes, he used the word slurping) and then ends by calling me "Bro" or "Brah" (guess it depends on the mood that he's in)

3) I write Joe back, pointing out how much of a moron he is, and again showing that his reasoning is not illogical and in many cases false, and then the whole cycle repeats itself. So, here is a summary of Joe's "arguments" and my debunking/total annilihilation of those arguments. In the order of simplicity Joe's emails will be listed in black (to represent the black place in heart where HR/RBI and "being able to carry one's team on his shoulders" reside instead of things such as RC or OPS) and my responses will be listed in blue.

So after sending the email (which is listed below with my hypothetical AL MVP ballots), Cowley responded with "Well, when you do get a vote, you can vote how you want. That's the beauty of America, Brah."

To which I responded: "Yes, it is true that people can vote for anyone they want to. However, the point is that sportswriters (i.e. idiots) like you who don't know what Runs Created is and only look at HR/RBI totals and vote for players on their hometown team #2 overall when they weren't even the best offensive player on said reporters hometown team (and the team didn't even make the playoffs) shouldn't be allowed to vote. Seriously though, I have one more question for you. Who had the better year offensively last year (2006), Frank Thomas or David Ortiz?? " (ed note: Cowley had a tough time answering this last question as I posed in 4 consecutive emails without an answer).

To Cowley responded with "Three GM's e-mailed me after my ballot was announced and said I was right on the money. Before handing it in, I also talked to different players in the AL. That's information that stat geeks will never understand." and "There's a reason why I do what I do, and you blog."

Seems that Cowley was starting to doubt his ballot (although he has had to defend it numerous times I'm sure) so he pulled out the big guns: GM references and player conversations. It's too bad that
"...Kenny Williams doesn't count. So now you're down to 2. And just because GM's validated your opinion doesn't mean that its right. You think GM's are the end-all know all of baseball analysis. Brian Sabean signed a 42 year guy with 0 oustanding contract offers to a $16 million dollar deal. That's great GM work. He also traded one year of service from an average catcher (AJ Pierzynski) for an All-Star closer, a potential All-Star starter (Liriano), and a fringe-average pitcher (Bonser). Yet, you're telling me that because he's a GM that he knows more about baseball analysis than the stats or any non-Gm does....

By the way, when you say that you talked to players, I assume that you mean that they agreed with your selections. Or did you just mean to say that you talked to them about it, and that was validation enough for selecting Jermaine Dye #2 overall despite the fact that his team (your hometown team) didn't even make the playoffs.....

Look I'm sure you could find 3,000 or even 3,000,000 people to validate your clearly wrong ballot. And some of them would be GM's and some of them would be players. But when you weigh "opinion" against "factual evidence", factual evidence (i.e. statistics) usually tends to win out (except in the minds of almost every sportswriter for some reason). "

And finally, just to throw in a cheap shot, I responded to Cowley's "There's a reason why I do what I do" with "Yes, your below average logical reasoning ability closed pretty much every door for you except journalism. Which is one of the least respected professions, I might add. "

Of course, Joltin' Joe was just getting started and countered with "The name of the Award is "Most Valuable Player.'' Not "Guy with the Best numbers.'' (ed note: I've used this argument numerous times to argue against Jeter--however, the difference between say Jeter & Morneau and Ortiz/Thomas is that Jeter plays in a 9 All-Star lineup; Morneau a 2-All Star lineup. The Red Sox and A's differed by 50 runs; The Twins and Yanks by 129 runs. And Ortiz still created a much larger % of his teams runs than Thomas (17.3% vs 12.4%). ) It means the guy that took his team to a level they wouldn't have reached without him. Boston ... no playoffs. Oakland.....playoffs. Sure, I look at numbers, but I don't slurp them like you do." Then he told me "Now go play Dungeons and Dragons,"

So apparently anyone who cites statistics is a nerd sitting in his own little bat cave just waiting to descend into a fantasy world of dungeons, dragons, and sportswriter bashing. Yea, anyways, of course, I had plenty of ammo for Joe including the following

"It means the guy that took his team to a level they wouldn't have reached without him."
"Oh, you mean like how Jermaine Dye (your #2 choice) led his team to the playoffs last year. (summoning my best Borat voice) NOT!"

"Boston ... no playoffs. Oakland.....playoffs."

"Oakland...playoffs (FT #4) Chicago White Sox....no playoffs (JD #2)....love to see your reasoning on that one. Also, Boston....4.82 Team ERA in strong division; Oakland.....4.21 ERA in weak division. Yet apparently Ortiz wasn't good enough to lead the Red Sox to the playoffs so therefore he isn't as valuable as Frank Thomas."

Then I basically laid it all out on the table why Ortiz was "more valuable" than Thomas: "If Ortiz adds 10 wins to the Red Sox (which he did according to his Win Share totals) and Thomas adds 7 wins to the Athletics (which he did according to his Win Share totals), which one was more valuable. According to you (and most sportswriters born before 1975), those 7 wins were more valuable because they led a team from non-playoffs to playoffs. Ok, fine. Most rational people when given a choice of 2 players, that play an identical position which requires no defense, one of which would add 10 wins to a their team and the other would add 7 wins, would say that the 10 win player is more valuable. But then again, maybe that's just me because I'm not afraid to "slurp" numbers and after all that "slurping" I realize that 10 is bigger than 7."

Also, I asked Joe for his 2005 AL Cy Young ballot again (I first asked him last email) just to see if he put Bartolo Colon ahead of Santana (which I guarantee he did, probably along with Contreras and Buehrle). He didn't seem willing to provide that information for some reason. Apparently, my sarcasm started to rub Cowley the wrong way as he responded with this:

"I actually almost read your entire e-mail this time. Usually I have just laughed at them in the first paragraph, and then been amazed how much time you spend trying to explain yourself. Typical of numbers geeks.

Now this is the last reply you will get from me, because I've wasted far too much time with you. As I explained on numerous TV and radio shows, there are numerous things I take into consideration. Was a team in the playoffs or the race the last week of the season? Did a player put up unbelievable numbers? Do I feel that team would have been close to the playoffs or as good without that player? Did that player show up in clutch time?

I'm not even sure what your argument is at this point because your thinking is so convoluted I can't follow it. Know this though, brah. It's my vote. I can do what I want with my vote. If you don't like it, get your own vote.

And blogger with no name, don't let numbers blur your view of the game. If a guy hits behind a runner to move him to second, it's a good thing even if it's an out. Diving to stop a ball or keeping a single from being a double, are good things. Those things don't show up in numbers. They show up in champions and in MVPs. They don't show up in these numbers that you worship.

Now go roll that 15-sided dice or whatever you do. We my friend are done ... unless you start paying me to respond to you, which is negotiable."

I'll get to debunking Cowley's arguments in a minute, but what's really funny here is that after 6 email exchanges (or 7, I've lost count by now), he still doesn't understand what is wrong with his AL MVP ballot. It's like telling a kid 7 different times that he got a problem wrong because he didn't set the equation in problem #2 equal to 0 and then showing the kid how to solve it once you set it equal to 0 AND showing the kid that he did set #3, #5, and #6 equal to 0 and solve them correctly. Then 2 days later, the kid says he doesn't understand why he got #2 wrong.
Also, (and I forgot to respond to this on my original post) "Diving to stop a ball or keeping a single from being a double, are good things." They are good things. Good things that Frank Thomas can not do since he does not play defense. Ever. Period. So that's yet another reason which doesn't move Thomas ahead of Ortiz. Also, I love his "they show up in Champions and MVP" talk because Cowley hadn't actually used any lame sports cliches up to this point (which was the one lame sportswriter tendency he hadn't exhibited).

So as for Cowley's claims:

Question 1: "Was a team in the playoffs or the race the last week of the season? "
No, the White Sox were NOT in the playoffs during the last week of the season yet you voted Jermaine Dye #2 on your AL MVP ballot

Question 2: "Did a player put up unbelievable numbers?"
David Oritz? YES. (ed note: I didn't mention this in the email but Ortiz was 1st in HR, 1st in RBI, 3rd in OPS, 1st in RC, 2nd in ISOP, 2nd in SECA--I'd call those unbelievable) Frank Thomas? Not so much.

Question 3: "Do I feel that team would have been close to the playoffs or as good without that player?"
"Frank Thomas created 12.4% of teams runs; Jermaine Dye 13.9% ; David Ortiz 17.3%. Yet, David Ortiz was the one whose team wouldn't have been as good without him...

Question 4: "Did that player show up in clutch time?"
Close and Late Stats 2006:
Dye: .299/.933/5/18 YES, for the most part
Thomas: .215/.742/2/14 NO. HELL NO.
Ortiz: .313/1.19/11/29 YES, HELL YES he did.

"So going by your four questions, Frank Thomas gets "Yes's" for 2 of them at most (team in playoffs and close to playoffs without him). Jermaine Dye gets yes's for 2, maybe 3 (unbelievalbe numbers, close to playoffs without him and good in the clutch) and Ortiz get's Yes's for a resounding 3 of them (unbelievalbe numbers, close to playoffs without him and good in the clutch). So these are your criteria, yet when you actually use them to determine how you would rank AL MVP candidates it clearly shows that your ballot was WRONG and that Ortiz was better than Thomas. So go ahead and think of some shifting standards to justify Thomas ahead of Ortiz but in every case, Ortiz comes out ahead." (ed note: Here's a handy chart for Cowley, since my writing may be too convoluted)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total (YES-NO)
Ortiz	NO	YES	YES	YES	3-1
Dye	NO	MAYBE-YES	YES	YES	2-2 or 3-1
Thomas	YES	NO	YES	NO	2-2

Again by Cowley's own standards (which have constantly shifted), Ortiz comes out ahead of Thomas or in the worst case, equal to him.

Finally, I tried to state as clearly as possible (in a non-convoluted manner) the problems with his AL MVP ballot so that even our number-phobic sportswriter could understand it:

1) You claim that if a player's team makes the playoffs it makes the player more valuable. But Jermaine Dye's team didn't make the playoffs. Therefore you either contradict yourself or you are using different standards for evaluating David Ortiz and Jermaine Dye. Plus, every email you've sent has a different reason for your ballot and yet every reason has been shown to be false ("Frank Thomas carried his team the last 6 weeks of the season") or actually favoring David Ortiz (Did the player come up in the clutch?, Did he put up unbelievable numbers?")

2) The reason the Red Sox didn't make the playoffs was because of their terrible pitchign during the months of July/August. David Ortiz could have hit 90 HR in 2006 and they still wouldn't have made the playoffs because they lost 5 games in the standings over 3 days by giving up 49 runs in a 3 game series. You are punishing Ortiz because the Red Sox didn't make the playoffs, but it isn't his fault that the Red Sox didn't make the playoffs. Why can't you understand that David Ortiz has no control over pitching????? You seem to have at least moderate intelligence, you can type an email, yet you still don't understand that David Ortiz doesn't control the Red Sox pitching staff.

We'll see if Cowley responds....assuming he doesn't, anyone want to chip and contribute to pay for Joe Cowley's 2005 AL Cy Young Ballot.

Joltin' Joe Cowley responds

2007-03-17T18:30:00.000-04:00

So after typing up and emailing Joe Cowley a total annihilation of his "Frank Thomas carried the team on his shoulders" theory, I was curious to see Cowley's response. What would he say to clear statistical evidence that disproved almost every part of his esoteric Frank Thomas memories. I initially thought that he would probably stop reading the post after my 1st point, since he probably doesn't know what Runs Created (RC) are and if he bothered to go look it up, would see that it is a "sabermetric" stat (i.e. the baseball writer equivalent of evil Nazi propaganda). Or would he simply reply with more snide insults denigrating the use of stats and end the email by addressing me as "bro".

Cowley responded the next day with a simple one sentence email: "Who did you vote for?"

I responded to Cowley with the following email 3/17/2007 and we here @ RealBBBB await his response.

Joe,
I didn't vote for anyone for AL MVP since I'm not a member of the BBWAA. However, in the interest of fairness and discussion, I will give you what my sample ballot would have looked like with rationalization for it. My original ballot (Oct 8, 2006--available here http://realbbbb.blogspot.com/2006/10/my-al-mvp-ballot.html) looked like this

1. David Ortiz
2. Justin Morneau
3. Johan Santana
4. Travis Hafner
5. Joe Mauer
6. Frank Thomas
7. Derek Jeter
8. Jermaine Dye
9. Carlos Guillen
10. Grady Sizemore

Yes, I have Derek Jeter as #7 (even lower than you) behind Thomas. In restrospect, Jeter should probably have been higher, since statistically he did have a very very good offensive season, regardless of his batting position (#2) and the fact that he plays in a 9 All-Star lineup. If you want more rationalization for my original ballot, then you can read the above page. If I were to vote now, I would have changed it to look like the following

1. David Ortiz
2. Justin Morneau
3. Johan Santana
4. Derek Jeter
5. Travis Hafner
6. Joe Mauer
7. Frank Thomas
8. Jermaine Dye
9. Carlos Guillen
10. Grady Sizemore

My basic problems with your AL MVP ballot were twofold:

1) Frank Thomas, David Ortiz, Travis Hafner all play the exact same position (DH). Thus, we can compared them purely on offensive production. Ortiz and Hafner clearly outperformed Thomas offensively (look at any set of offensive statistics--traditional and sabermetric) and since they don't play defense, we can pretty much make a definitive decision about which players were better during 2006. Yes, it is true that Thomas's team made the playoffs while Ortiz & Hafner team's didn't. However, that is through NO FAULT of Hafner or Ortiz. Can you honestly sit there and tell me that if the A's had Ortiz or Hafner instead of Frank Thomas on their team in 2006 they would have done worse or wouldn't have done any better than they did with Thomas??

2) Jermaine Dye was not the 2nd most valuable player in the AL. He was perhaps the 2nd most valuable player on his own team. But not for his division, much less the entire American League. Dye had a good season, but people like Ortiz, Hafner, even Jeter, Grady Sizmore had better offensive seasons. And Dye isn't such an amazing RF that his fielding adds some significant value to his production (as compared to Joe Mauer or Pudge in years past). Plus, Dye had 2 All-Star level hitters in his lineup (Konerko, Thome) whereas Ortiz had 1 (Manny), Thomas had 1 (Swisher), Sizemore/Hafner had 1 (each other), and Morneau/Mauer had 1 (each other). Finally, the White Sox weren't even a playoff team. You voted for Thomas over Ortiz based on playoff status. Ok, fine. But then what is your reasoning for voting for Dye over Thomas?? Stats/offensive production?? Because if that is the case, I see no difference between the White Sox and the Red Sox seeing as how both missed the playoffs by a significant amount (5+ games). Both teams finished 3rd in their divisions and their records were separated by 4 games. So there should be no "playoff importance" added to Dye if you're not going to consider it for Ortiz. So then how do you vote for Dye ahead of Ortiz and also ahead of Thomas?

We await Joe's response...........

The Return of Joltin' Joe Crowley

2007-03-15T22:03:00.000-04:00

So Joe Crowley wrote an article on Toby Hall trying to conceal Sammy Sosa's corked bat and he painted Hall in a positive light(ed Note---you can read more about this article at FJM). Seeing as how I hate cheating (I am a teacher afterall), I wrote Cowley an email and called him on being the moron he was for promoting the coverup of illegal activities. He responding that "I didn't praise anyone pal. I simply told a story."

Yea, and Bonds never knowingly used steroids either. So after receiving this email, I thought a little bit. I wonder if this was the same guy who voted Jeter 6th on his AL MVP ballot behind Jermaine Day (2nd) and Frank Thomas (4th) (ed. Note---Yea, I know had Jeter 7th on my MVP ballot. In retrospect, Jeter should probably be higher, but I think my criteria was slightly different as I put both Ortiz & Hafner in the top 4; more towards best/valuable player rather than best player on a playoff team). The fact that he had Jeter 6th wasn't even bad; it was his other choices. Dye (2nd), which I'm sure is just a coincidence seeing as how he is from Chicago, and Frank Thomas ahead of David Ortiz. Here you have 2 players who play the same position (DH) so you have 1 metric of comparison: offensive production. And Ortiz clearly beat Thomas in 2006 in every category. So I wrote to JC and asked him "So David Ortiz beats Frank Thomas in every offensive category (except number of days on the disabled list due to leg injuries), yet you vote for Thomas ahead of him. How?? "

His response: "Since Frank Thomas carried his team on his shoulders and into the playoffs the last six weeks of the season, that would make him more valuable."

He also started his email by addressing me as "Johnny Blog" and called me "Meat" to end the post. My first question was which gay fraternity this guy belonged to in college. Then it occured to me that he probably never went to college. So I decided to look at his claim that Frank Thomas "carried his team on his shoulders and into the playoffs the last six weeks of the season"

Below is the email/argument that I sent to Cowley on 3/15/2007...His response is above:

Hey Joe, Wouldn't want to let the facts get in the way of your misguided opinions. Let's examine the statement "Frank Thomas carried his team on his shoulders and into the playoffs the last six weeks of the season,"

1) Sept 2006 numbers:
OPS: Swisher: 1.062, Thomas: .938
Runs Created: Swisher-23.2, Thomas 18.6
So Swisher got on base more frequently than Thomas (OBP .450 vs .336), covered more bases with his base hits than Thomas (SLG-.612 vs .602) and overall outperformed Thomas in terms of run producing performance (5 more RC) in Sept. Yet, Thomas was the one who carried the team on his back. This is the whole point of statistics. So you can definitely prove beyond a reasonable doubt who actually did "carry his team on his shoulders" instead of allowing idiots like you to make unsubstantiated hypotheses.

2) The Oakland A's went 15-13 in September/Oct. Wouldn't a team that had a player carrying it usually finish better than that. They went 21-6 in August 2006 (when Thomas was their best run producing player) and 18-8 in June 2006 when Thomas was tied for 6th in RC. They certainly didn't need him to "carry the team on their backs" then now did they?

2A) The Boston Red Sox went 14-14 in Sept/Oct, almost identical to the Oakland A's. David Ortiz had 22.8 RC and Thomas had 18.6. So two teams which had nearly identical records and 1 team had a player that performed better (Ortiz) than the other (Thomas)---who wasn't even the best offensive player on his team during that period. Also, the next best player on the Red Sox produced half of what Ortiz did. Yet, Thomas "carried" the Athletics (ed note: This word was erroneously typed as Red Sox originally; it has been corrected for this post). What did Ortiz do then? What do you call it when one player produces ~22% of his teams runs (22.8/102), another player produces only 13% (18.6/145) of his teams runs and the second player "carries the team on his back"? Sportswriter idiocy.

3) Even if Thomas outperformed Ortiz during the last 6 weeks of the season (which we already have shown he didn't), does that make up for the other 4.5 months where David Ortiz clearly destroyed Frank Thomas offensively? When Frank Thomas was sitting out half of June with a leg injury (coincidentally the A's went 8-5 during that time which showed they had no problems winning without Thomas) Ortiz was cranking 5 HR and 13 RBI's.

4) The reason the Red Sox didn't make the playoffs---and the A's did--(which is clearly a criteria for you to consider MVP voting relevancy) was their horrendous August (9-21) as compared to the A's (21-6). What caused this difference in outcomes (21 wins vs 21 losses). Let's see: The A's scored 140 runs, the Sox 132. That's pretty close. Oh yeah, pitching. The part of the game that David Ortiz has absolutely no fucking control over.

A's team ERA Aug 2006: 3.25 (best in AL) ;
Red Sox team ERA Aug 2006: 5.81 (worst in AL).

So that pretty much disproves your theory that Thomas was the sole reason the A's won all their ballgames and made the playoffs and Ortiz should be held responsible for the Sox not making the playoffs.

5) Please enlighten me on how David Ortiz could control the Red Sox pitching staff and their terrible pitching performances, including giving up 49 runs over 5 games to the Yanks over 3 days in August. Because that is the reason the Sox didn't make the playoffs. Yet, you don't vote for Ortiz because the Sox didn't make the playoffs, so I'm curious to see how he his responsible for those terrible pitching performances.

So, let's see here, we have effectively proved that every part of your premise is false. Thomas did not carry the team (Swisher was actually better), the A's weren't even that good the last month of the season (they coasted at .500 level), Ortiz actually "carried his team" more than Thomas did during Sept 2006, and that Ortiz had not control whatsoever over the Red Sox playoff fortunes since he does not pitch. That pretty much sums it up.

P.S. In the NL MVP race, the voters chose the gawdy stats no-playoff guy (Howard) over the guy (Pujols) who led his team to the playoffs. Care to explain that (since (you) (ed note: the word you was erroneously left off in the original email; it has been added here)voted the exact opposite way on Thomas/Ortiz)?

2007 Fantasy Preview -10 Undervalued Players (Sleepers)

2007-02-23T10:10:00.000-05:00

It's not really fair to call these players Sleepers in that you've probably heard of most of them. They are people who you can draft late (or later than comparable players) and get decent production out of.

Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Kelvim Escobar	SP	202
Comments: dwthtb: Read the comments about Santana in our Busts list. Escobar pitched very well last year and had only 11 wins because of poor RS and poor defense (27 UER). He only made 3 fewer starts than Santana, so while he does have some injury history, he is solid across 4 categories. Take him in Round 20 and then laugh at your friend who drafted Wang in Round 12 when Escobar beats/matches him in every category. tent time: How does Escobar fall so far? Poor run support lead to a record of 11-14, but a 3.60 ERA and a K/BB ratio of nearly 3/1. Last year's bad look will probably even itself out, but even if it doesn't he'll deliver strong numbers in ERA, WHIP and K's.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
David Bush	SP	150
Comments: dwthtb: This one has been documented extensively by Eric Karabell, but basically Bush gives up few BB's, gets a ton of K's, and only had a bad ERA due to some bad luck. Phenomenal WHIP too. ERA/Wins should improve assuming that K/BB ratio stays the same. tent time: Fewer hits than innings pitched, solid K's and a great WHIP last year but gave up a few too many homers (26) on a mediocre ballclub. He's a year older and should improve. His K/BB ratio of nearly 4/1 speaks highly of his potential.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Morgan Ensberg	3B	205
Comments: dwthtb: Ensberg is starting to look like : great in odd-numbered years, and average/bad in even numbered ones. One should remember though that last year he was off too a good start before he ran into shoulder problems. Could easily rebound to 25-100 and you can draft him in Round 20+ way behind Aubrey Huff, Chad Tracey, Adrian Beltre. tent time: In CBS Sportsline head to head leagues, Ensberg is currently the 27th third base eligible player being drafted, after the likes of Mike Lowell, Wilson Betemit, Mark DeRosa and Adrian Beltre (who doesn't deserve to even be mentioned in fantasy baseball discussions). Ensberg is only one year removed from a 35 homer season. Last year, he hit 23 long balls, but more importantly put up a .396 OBP in 120 games. Expect at least a decent rebound.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Barry Bonds	OF	172
Comments: dwthtb: Love him or hate him, Bonds put up decent numbers in 2006. Granted his inordinate number of BB's don't really help you in AVG leagues, but he could easily go 25-90 with 80 Runs. tent time: Bonds is currently being drafted after Gary Matthews, Jr. I would rather draft my dog than Gary Matthews, Jr, and she can't hit for much power (fast, though). Everybody in your league hates Bonds and many will attempt a moral stance and say they won't draft Bonds at all. Take advantage of this and add Bonds in the mid to late rounds (12-16).
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Pat Burrell	OF	138
Comments: dwthtb: He's a virtual lock for 30-100 and should have plenty of chances for RBI's as team's pitch around Ryan Howard. His average won't be great and he won't score a ton of runs in the number 5 hole, but how many 30-100 guys can you find left in round 15+? tent time: Was Burrell's year really that bad? No. He still hit 28 homers with a .890 OPS. His biggest problem was probably all the at bats he had after Howard cleared off the bases, killing his RBI totals. With all the walks Howard is likely to accrue, Burrell should have tons of RBI opportunities. Right now he's being drafted after Corey Patterson who literally helps you in only one category. Also, my wife says he's hot.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Derek Lowe	SP	163
Comments: dwthtb: He beat or matched Wang in every pitching category last year (ex. wins) but still ended up with 16 (tied for NL lead). His numbers were actually remarkably consistent the past 2 years in LA (ERA, WHIP separated by .02 and K/BB ratio went down slightly last year). Take him 8 rounds after Wang or Barry Zito and get similar results. tent time: Lowe is consistent, and what his last two years in LA illustrate is how little control over their record starting pitchers have. That Lowe is being drafted some 30 spots after Wang is unbelievable.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Scott Olsen	SP	193
Comments: dwthtb: Olsen pitched decently last year and should get better this year. His home numbers were terrible compared to his road numbers (which is strange consider how much of a pitcher's park Dolphin Stadium is). Led all Marlins pitchers in K's and had the best K/BB ratio out of all the young guns. 2006 numbers were virtually identical to Dontrelle Willis and he didn't have any injury problems unlike Sanchez and Johnson. tent time: As a young Marlins pitcher with solid strikeout numbers who has managed to avoid injury this far, Scott Olsen stands out on his staff. If he can cut his walks a little bit, we're looking at a possible breakout season.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Tim Hudson	SP	200
Comments: dwthtb: tent time: My partner in blogging looks at Tim Hudson and sees what most people see, and that is a pitcher whose numbers have been declining for 3 straight years. I see a veteran desperate to turn his career around who underwent a torturous offseason training program. I'll draft him very very late, and probably wait a few weeks to start using him, but I expect to be rewarded when I do. Why? Gut feeling.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Adam Laroche	1B	144
Comments: dwthtb: Laroche caught fire after the ASB last year and hopefully that will continue this year. He could easily be a 30-100 1B with 90-100 runs and decent AVG, yet you should be able to get him several rounds after Giambi, Sexson, and Swisher, all of whom kill your avg. tent time: We all know his numbers in the second half of '06 (.655 slugging) and with a season coming up where he'll hit behind walk machine Jason Bay, look for LaRoche's RBI's to jump.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Ian Kinsler	2B	175
Comments: dwthtb: Kinsler showed moderate power and SB in an abbreviated 2006. He could easily go 20-20 which would be especially valuable at 2B since it is such a week position after Utley. He should also score a ton of runs hitting at the top of that Texas lineup. You can wait til Round 15+ to get production equivalent to Ray Durham, Josh Barfield, or Marcus Giles. tent time: 11 steals and 14 homers in 423 at bats in '06 makes Kinsler a decent pick to go 20-20 in '07. I'd love it if he'd bat second between Lofton and Young, so if he does, watch out for a lot of runs scored. Right now he's the 13th second basemen drafted, so don't panic when a lot of second sackers are coming off the boards and remember there's potential late in the draft.

2007 Fantasy Preview--10 Overvalued Players (Busts)

2007-02-23T09:33:00.000-05:00

It's not really fair to call these players Busts in that some of them may turn out to have fine years. However, their production isn't going to match the position in which you draft them. So they're really "Overvalued" rather than Busts. For the record, the average draft position included comes from cbssportsline.

Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Felipe Lopez	SS (2B)	79	Podsednik, C. Patterson
Comments: dwthtb: His value pretty much lies in his steals. He's now going to play a full season on a team with a terrible offense, in a pitcher's park, so he will score some runs, but I'm not banking on anywhere near 100. Why draft him for the steals when you can get Corey Patterson or Podsednik (granted he is injured), several rounds later. The only upside to him is that he will be eligible at both MI positions. tent time: In 2005, Lopez stole 15 bases. In an injury shortened 2004 season (79 games) he stole 1 (one) base. In 2006, he stole 44 bases. If you think 2006 is the real Lopez and you're sure he will duplicate those steals, then by all means go get him. I am not so sure.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Takashi Saito	CP	82
Comments: dwthtb: He had an amazing season last year with an ungodly amount of K's. The question is can he do it again at age 37 especially with several young fireballers (Broxton, Billingsley) breathing down his neck. tent time: I suppose the question with Saito is how much did accomplish simply by tricking hitters who had never seen him before? I would expect at least a slight decline and I wouldn't draft him ahead of Putz or Hoffman, unless you are wholly confident that his strikeout total will remain high.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Ryan Zimmerman	3B	65
Comments: dwthtb: I just don't see how a player with no lineup protection in a pitcher's park on a terrible offense is going to improve his numbers across the board, esp. HR. Chipper Jones outperformed him last year in only 4.5 months of play. Could easily wait several rounds and take Eric Chavez/Morgan Ensberg who could match him if they rebound to pre-injury performance tent time: The allure for Zim is that he's young (24) and sure to improve. The problem is that even if he improves his game, there's hardly anybody around him to drive in, or to be driven in by. Nick Johnson has a broken leg and won't be back until at least the All Star break, leaving Zimmerman surrounded in the lineup by the likes of Brian Schneider and Nook Logan. I'm not saying Zim is bad, but since runs and RBI count, you'll be better off drafting someone like Chipper Jones or Scott Rolen later on.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Chien-Ming Wang	SP	121
Comments: dwthtb: He offers no K's, and the Wins are largely a function of Run Support (6.32 Runs/game) and his WHIP wasn't that good (1.31). Could easily end up with 14 wins. Derek Lowe could have just as many wins, comparable ERA & WHIP, and more K's many rounds later. tent time: The total lack of strikeouts may not be a huge deal in real baseball, but people this is fantasy baseball. Just like Christina Aguilera getting married doesn't effect my real life, but sure as hell messes up my fantasy life. In 218 innings last year, Wang only K'd 76. With a WHIP about 1.30, he basically becomes a 2 category pitcher - Wins and ERA. Should his run support decrease (no sheffield, older giambi and damon) or some more of those ground balls find holes, his value will plummet. Let somebody else take the risk.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Ervin Sanatana	SP	124
Comments: dwthtb: He walks a lot of batters and had a high ERA for pitching his home games in a pitcher's park. Compared to Escobar, he gave up more HR, more BB's, and fewer K's. He got more wins only because of run support--13th (6.32 runs/game) and defense. Don't expect that to continue tent time: How the Angels managed to score over 6 runs a game for him is a mystery. A good mystery. Santana had a decent year, but he walks too many (70) and that offense will most certainly not back him up again in 2007 and unfortunately, even though they don't mean a lot in real baseball, Wins are a fantasy stat.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Vernon Wells	OF	36
Comments: dwthtb: Wells had a fine season last year and even contributed 17 steals. However, it was only his 2nd 30-100 season and first since 2003 (which preceeded two straight years of declining OPS). The Blue Jays lineup should be better with Frank Thomas, but Wells simply isn't a stud outfielder in the likes of Andruw Jones, Carlos Lee, or Bobby Abreu. tent time: It's amazing how one big year can make people forget about the past. If the Wells that shows up in 2007 (bloated checkbook and all) is the Wells of 2006, then by all means, use a high pick (still not the second round, though) on him. He should score a lot of runs with Thomas and Glaus behind him. But if that average and homers dip to where they were in '04-'05 (.272 - .269, 23- 28) you'll be disappointed that you left Jones, Lee and Abreu out there. Oh, and I wouldn't count on those 17 steals repeating themselves, either.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Joe Mauer	C	16
Comments: dwthtb: Mauer is clearly the best catcher on the market. But his average overshadowed how little he contributed in other fantasy categories. Among catchers he was 5th in RBI, 13th in HR and 3rd in steals. No way he should be drafted when people like Andruw Jones, Carlos Lee, Ichiro, Aramis Ramirez or Holliday are still available. tent time: For a catcher to go in the third round, he'd have to be Piazza circa late 1990's. Mauer has a great average, and should score runs ahead of Morneau and Cuddyer, but there just isn't enough power here to justify the pick. Sure everybody wants a good catcher, but wait a few rounds and take Martinez or McCann. Or wait a few more rounds and take a risk on Piazza. Use that second or third round pick on the stud hitter or starter.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Jermaine Dye	OF	50
Comments: dwthtb: Dye will probably have a solid 30-100 season. Just don't draft him expecting to get a top 5 OF (like he was last year). tent time: Career years happen once. They don't happen twice. If they did, they wouldn't be career years.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Ben Sheets	SP	56
Comments: dwthtb: Sheets pitched really well in his last 8-9 starts last year, but I just can't trust a guy who has had repeated injuries on the same body part over the last 2 season. No way, I'm taking a guy with an injury history over someone like Smoltz or Aaron Harang who have shown consistent solid production over the last 2 years. tent time: I will not be burned by him. A player in our league said the following to no less than 10 times last season: "And when Sheets comes back, my rotation will be dominant." I refuse to be that person. May as well draft Prior. Don't be blinded by what he did in 2004, the last year he was healthy. He could be great, but let's be honest, he probably won't be.
Player	Position	Average Draft Position	Comparable Players
Dan Uggla	2B	98
Comments: dwthtb: Uggly finished 2006 as the 3rd ranked 2B due to great power and Run totals. Seeing as he came out of nowhere and had a very poor finish to last year, I don't see him improving much or putting up 25-100 numbers again. tent time: Did Uggla play over his head last year? The whole team probably did (except Cabrera). All we know is that in 122 September at bats, Uggla's OBP was .269. Go with Barfield or Kinsler later.

Fantasy Baseball Scoring: Roto vs H2H

2007-02-19T11:11:00.000-05:00

To Roto or not to Roto: That is the question. Rotisserie (roto) scoring is still used in a majority of leagues, but Head to Head (H2H) scoring has made some progress in recent years. Does anyone honestly use points scoring??? Anyways, although leagues generally use the same categories, the scoring and results can be completely different. This article will look at the differences (both subtle and obvious) between the two scoring systems, highlight the pros and cons of each and show the types of players which are better suited to each scoring system.

Differences in scoring
Roto scoring is cumulative throughout season whereas H2H scoring is determined on weekly intervals. If you didn't know that by this point, then you're also probably under the impression that Derek Jeter is a great fielder and that baseball awards are extremely important. In which case, this website probably gave you a heart attack. In any case, the main difference between Roto and H2H scoring is that points can be made up in Roto leagues, but once they are won or lost in H2H leagues, they are gone forever.

To explain this better, let's assume that you had a team last year that included Juan Pierre, Aramis Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, Rafael Furcal, Hideki Matsui, Carlos Zambrano, and Jake Peavy. As of May 1st, you would have 2 hitters batting under .200 (Furcal, Ramirez), only 1 hitter over .260 (Teixeira), no hitter with more than 4 HR (Ramirez), 2 hitters contributing a total of 4 RBI's--meaning they were on pace for 12 RBI each (Furcal/Pierre) and 2 pitchers with 1 combined win and ERA's of 5.17 and 5.35 respectively (Peavy/Zambrano). These could easily have represented someone's first 7 picks or 6 of the first 10. And your team would have been screwed in every offensive category except perhaps steals. Same thing with Wins, ERA, and WHIP (both did manage to still get some K's). And you'd probably be ready to give up on fantasy baseball and perhaps your life (as I was, owning 5 of those players). In Roto scoring, the HR/AVG/RBI can all be made up over the course of the season because the only thing that matters is where you stand in each category on Oct 1. So even though Tex and Ramirez only had 25 HR at the AS Break, they hit 46 HR post AS Break which would have raised you a few spots in HR (and theoretically RBI as well). However, in a H2H league, all of the weeks when you lost HR/RBI/AVG because of them are points on the scoreboard, that you can't erase. They are permanently factored into your record (and thus your standing) once the week is over. This is the main difference between H2H and Roto which most people don't understand. In Roto leagues you can still end up getting more HR/RBI points than the slob who drafted/added Chris Shelton, Xavier Nady, Johny Gomes, and Phil Nevin. But in a H2H league, you probably lost quite handedly (at least in the OFF categories) if you played him during April at any point. Now, you would undoubtedly have destroyed him and taken the HR/RBI points when you played him again in June and August. But the point is that those points you lost in April add up and in a Roto league, he wouldn't get them because by the end of the season, you would have moved ahead of him and thus, taken them away. This above example also brings me to another difference between the leagues and this involves adding/dropping players.

Roster Transactions
The scoring differences I described above also relate to the adding/dropping of players. In Roto, you can afford to hold onto struggling players for much longer than H2H, because your finish line is months away whereas in H2H it is only 1 week away at most. When Aramis Ramirez struggles week after week, he keeps losing you points in your H2H standings. But in Roto, he has time to make it up in the standings. So it's much more tempting (and sometimes necessary) to cut players in H2H leagues much sooner than in Roto (of course those who dropped Ramirez or Justin Morneau last year were probably kicking themselves post AS Break). Of course, good judgement needs to be exercised as always.

Adding and dropping players applies much more to pitchers though as a pitcher's performance is much more dependent on the matchup(s) they face that week (team, ballpark, etc.). This is why its not as critical to draft a solid 5-7 man rotation in H2H as it is in Roto. In H2H you can keep streaming pitchers in and out of your lineup (either weekly or daily depending on your league's settings) and end up with the same results in Wins, K's, ERA/WHIP as the guy who drafted 3-4 pitchers in the first 12 rounds. Of course you still run the risk of screwing your ERA/WHIP by having 1 or 2 bad starters get completely shelled.

Category Valuations
On the offensive side, 4 of the 5 categories have pretty much the same value in both scoring systems. The only category which you need to treat differently is SB. In roto leagues, every steal counts when its one of the 60 from Jose Reyes or 1 of the 9 from Matt Holliday. However, in a H2H league, the 1 or 2 steals you may get from Chase Utley or Carlos Lee in a week is completey useless, unless you manage to win steals for that week. Thus, the main point is that marginal steals (8-20) have very little value in H2H leagues as compared to Roto leagues. You may get 1-2 steals each week from Lee/Utley/Bay but you'll still most likely lose the SB point against the guy with Reyes, the guy with Figgins, the guy with Pierre, the guy with H Ramirez, and the guy with Crawford. In Roto, Lee/Utley/Bay can equal Reyes over the long haul in SB; in H2H they might or might not equal Reyes during 2-3 times a season you play the team he's on.

On the pitching side, there's not much of a difference for Wins, Saves, and K's since Wins/Saves are so fluky and depend on so many things besides a pitcher's performance, and high strikeout pitchers usually have high strikeout games. You generally don't see pitchers with fluctuations between 1K and 10K games on a regular basis. ERA & WHIP are the two categories which should be treated differently. In Roto, a bad pitching performance stays around forever, whereas in H2H it's gone the next week against a new opponent. When you start Jake Westbrook against the Tigers (look up his career numbers), it's gonna take at least 2 (or more) starts to negate those 8 ER and WHIP over 2.00. In H2H, his crummy start may cost you ERA and WHIP for that week, but its not going to affect your ERA/WHIP going forward (which it does in Roto). This is why its much more important to get a core group of 5-7 starters in Roto than in H2H. This also applies to closers as well, but in the reverse. Terrible closers (who may end up with similar save numbers as Nathan, Rivera, etc.) can be absolutely brutal on your ERA/WHIP and can effectively ruin your ERA/WHIP with one outing because they only have 1 inning at most to distribute those runs over (as compared to starters who usually last at least 3 innings). This will be discussed later in the positional valuation section. The point is that in Roto, Bobby Jenks 41 saves are equivalent to Wagner's 40 saves and Jenks higher ERA/WHIP don't hurt you as much because they happened over a small number of IP compared to the entire season (1250-1600 IP). You can make up the 13 ER difference among your starters (ex. Zambrano vs Bonderman). However, since the intervals are so small in H2H (1 week), several bad closer outings can completely ruin your ERA/WHIP. In other words, 4 scoreless IP usually won't win you ERA/WHIP (since this is at most 10% of your IP for the week), but 8-10 ER over 2 IP can shoot your ERA/WHIP so high that its impossible to recover over only a wek. Thus, when you hear Eric Karabell constantly saying "Saves are saves" remember that this applies mainly to Roto.

Position Valuations
On the offensive side, there isn't much difference between most positions since unknown players always emerge during the season. However OF is one position where H2H leagues pose a significant difference than Roto. Because there is so much more offense for OF (as compared to say SS or 2B), there are always OF to be plucked off the wavier wire going to a favorable hitters park or on a hot streak. This is especially true in deep leagues which have 4 or 5 OF starting. As mentioned earlier, because the points earned at the end of the week can not be taken away, it pays to pick up hot OF who are going to hitters parks or facing terrible teams. The difference between OF and other position is that there is just so much more depth than other positions (except perhaps 1B).

On the defensive side, closers and starting pitchers both have their value changed depending on the league. For SP, middle of the road starters have more value in Roto than in H2H for the same reasoning mentioned above regarding the fact that points earned in H2H leagues are finalized. Dominant starting pitchers have a little more value in Roto because there will be some weeks in H2H where they have bad starts and therefore don't deliver their value. But overall, there's little difference between people like Santana, Carpenter, etc. in either type of scoring system. Closers however exhibit a huge difference. Top quality closers are much more valuable in H2H than in Roto because 1 bad closer outing can effectively cost you 2 points (ERA/WHIP) and also Saves if a RP blows 2-3 saves in a week (if you don't think it happens look up Ryan Dempster or Fausto Carmona). It's the same basic reasoning as the SB valuation mentioned above. You can get 35 saves out of Joe Nathan or Joe Borowski. In Roto scoring, you can negate Borowski's higher ERA/WHIP with your starters and the impact also isn't that great by the end of the season. However, in H2H, there will be weeks where you can't make up for the 1 IP, 4 ER outing or the 1/3 IP 3 ER outing because you only have 40-50 IP as compared to a whole season. Thus, stud closers are much more valuable in H2H than in Roto.

Winners/Losers
Winning or Losing isn't much different in Roto and H2H leagues. Bad teams in Roto leagues are usually bad in H2H leagues as well, and vice versa. However, the main difference is that H2H leagues have playoffs, very similar to MLB playoffs, and as a result, the best team doesn't always win (especially when 8 of their players sit out the final day of the season). Thus, although we mentioned earlier people can make up ground over the course of a season due to struggling players, its quite difficult to go from last to first in Roto. You might be able to make it to 3rd or even 2nd, but usually in Roto, the teams at the very top (1st, 2nd) are teams that have been consistent the entire year. In H2H leagues, you can essentially do what the Marlins did in 2003 ---get off to a terrible start, then catch fire due to key additions (Cabrera, Willis), and end up as the best team at the end of the season (even though your overall record didn't reflect it). This is one of the things which makes Roto a much more fair evaluation of team/manager quality than H2H. H2H rewards the hot team at the end of the season (like pro sports playoffs--which still usually is one of, if not, the best regular season teams); Roto rewards long term consistency and performance. It's a tradeoff essentially between fairness, interest, and excitement. Which ever scoring system you prefer, just remember that JD Drew has never gone 30-100 once in his career and that Jimmy Rollins outhomered Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Tejada last year.

Summary:

Rotisserie

Head to Head

Pro's

-Rewards overall consistency (similar to MLB regular season)

-Can make up ground for struggling players over the course of the entire season

-Don't need to pay attention as much as H2H

-more interesting, small weekly intervals allow people to stay interested in improving their standings

-Playoffs give people a chance to make up for early season struggles (similar to MLB playoff system)

Con's

-long season; players tend to lose interest as season wears on esp. those at the bottom of the standings

-can be difficult to make up ground after a bad start since no playoffs at the conclusion

-Struggling players lose points which can't be made up

-Best team doesn't always win in playoffs because of 1 or 2 hot/cold players

-Playoffs usually happen when teams are resting star players for the MLB playoffs

-Requires constant roster attention--especially in leagues with minimum IP

-- Luck plays a huge factor, as there will be weeks when your team will have better stats than every other team in the league----except the team you're playing that week.

Fantasy Baseball Preview 2007

2007-02-19T10:49:00.000-05:00

The blog has been pretty quiet for about the last month, but don't worry, the baseball season (and specifically the fantasy baseball season) are just warming up. Over the next week, we'll be providing plenty of articles looking at sleepers, potential busts, rookies, comparisons of league types, and of course the overall top-50 players. So sit back, relax, kick up your feet, and remember, its all fun and games until someone drafts that catcher in the 4th round. And then its just fun(ny).

2006 Free Agent Recap

2007-01-15T15:37:00.000-05:00

What a crazy offseason its been. I haven't seen this much money thrown at mid-level talent since our first (and last) trip to Beavers. In any case, here's a recap of our top 10 free agents and where they ended up

Player	DWTHTB	Tent Time	Actual Team	Score
Carlos Lee	Rangers	Houston	Houston	0-1
Analysis: Lee should be good for a couple years with that short porch in left, but I don't want to be paying him $16 mil/yr from age 33 on. The Lee signing was a large part of Houston's schizophrenic off season. They were willing to give Lee $100 to buoy their struggling offense, but wouldn't give the money-grubbing Pettitte an extra $2 million, which might cripple their rotation if Clemens follows Pettitte out door.
Alfonso Soriano	Orioles	Phillies	Cubs	0-1
Analysis: The Cubs offense should be much improved, Soriano got a shitload of money and well, that's pretty much all to say. I'd put the over/under on the Cubs dumping this contract at 3 yrs. My co-blogger says the Cubs offense should be much improved. Not sure this will have as much to do with Soriano as a full season of Derrek Lee. The Cubs biggest offensive weakness last year was an OBP of .319. To address that, they signed Soriano, who's career OBP is .325. I'm sure the Cubs will want to dump this contract, but probably will not be able to.
Barry Zito	Mets	Padres	Giants	0-1
Analysis: "There's a sucker born every minute." Nuff said. Somebody please explain to us here at Real Baseball Blog why Brian Sabean has a reputation as a good GM. I just don't see it. His teams won a lot of games in the late 90's and early 2000's but that was all a function of Bonds. Sabean had a player put together the best 4 year run in baseball history, and he couldn't compliment his roster enough to get the team to the World Series more than once, and that once was entirely on Bonds' back. When Sabean is fired at the end of the 2007 season, he'll have left a terrible mess behind for someone smarter than him to have to clean up.
Aramis Ramirez	Cubs	Angels	Cubs	1-1
Analysis: One of the few contracts which wasn't extremely overvalued (the emphasis on extremely). Should benefit from a much improved Cubs offense. Again, I don't see how any possible improvement in the Cubs offense benefits him. Soriano, as a leadoff hitter does not provide a lot of RBI opportunities for those behind him. If you take out his homers, Soriano's OBP is .307, so I don't think Lee and Ramirez are going to see a lot more runners on base in '07 than they did in '06 (when Lee was healthy). This was, however, a good deal for the shockingly unthrifty Cubs, as Ramirez is actually a good defender, and though a little streaky, has been very consistent for the Cubs, posting an OPS over .910 each of the last 3 years.
Jason Schmidt	Cardinals	Cubs	Dodgers	1-1
Analysis: Didn't see this one coming, but Schmidt should continue to flourish in the pitcher-friendly NL West. Great signing for Dodgers, who steal the Ace of the Giants (probably forcing them to throw money at Zito like a 21 year old virgin at a a Canadian strip club with his college tennis team) and lock him up for a high yearly salary but for few years, something the Dodgers did last year with Furcal. It makes sense for Schmidt who might not have more than 3 years of effectiveness left in the tank. Makes you wonder if GM Ned Colletti was even in the room when the Juan Pierre contract was signed. (Side note: Do you think that maybe the Dodgers fired Paul DePodesta a year too early? How do you think he felt, watching the Dodgers head into the playoffs lead by Nomar, Drew, Kent, Penny and Lowe - all Podesta aquisitions.)
Barry Bonds	Tigers	Giants	Giants (?)	1-2
Analysis: Something Brian Sabean never learned from Economics 101: Extremely low demand for a good generally leads to a decrease in price. I don't understand what, if any leverage Bonds had to negotiate a deal for this much money. But he's supposedly working out real hard this off season. Whatever that means.
Mark Mulder	Braves	Red Sox	Cardinals	1-2
Analysis: The Cardinals welcomed Mulder back for a discount which could turn quite expensive if he can meet certain performance goals, 35 GS/yr for 2007-2008, (which it looks like he will NOT meet since he isn't scheduled to start pitching until May/June). Totally agree with this move instead of giving some league average pitcher (Marquis, Meche, Weaver, Suppan) $7-10 mil/yr for 4+ yrs. This seems like a good deal for the usually inelligent Cardinals. Mulder really fell off a cliff last year and I'm hoping he can bounce back from surgery as so many players do not.
Jeff Suppan	Yankees	Mets	Brewers	1-2
Analysis: I don't know if Suppan's agent was asleep at the switch or what, but how a guy who has similar numbers to Gil Meche and pitched well in the playoffs (for the 2nd straight year) gets less money and fewer years is completely unexplainable. Good signing for the Brewers. After awhile, I almost stop even looking at the money these mediocre contact pitchers are getting. I've read a lot from Keith Law about how Suppan will be hurt by the lack of defensive skills behind him in Milwaukee, and while that may be so, the Brewers needed to do something like this to at least remind the fans that they still exist. Sheets (when healthy), Capuano and Suppan are a solid 1-2-3 in a mediocre division.
Nomar Garciaparra	Angels	Dodgers	Dodgers	1-3
Analysis: Nomar stays in his comfort zone and should have another decent year, although now he is the big bat in that LA lineup which should worry Dodger fans. Will anybody on the Dodgers homer in 2007? This team will need 5 hits just to score 2 runs in an inning. But at least they'll be fast. And not injury prone. (Sarcasm, people. Sarcasm) I love Nomar, but he has got to fully rebound from all of his injuries and go back to the mashing monster he was in Boston if the Dodgers want to win this division.
Vincente Padilla	Astros	Texas	Texas	1-4
Analysis: Padilla pitched decently in Texas last year. I'd put the odds he's able to duplicate that for the next 3 season at about 30%. But at least Tom Hicks is only on the hook for 3 years instead of 5 yrs as with prior signings. A bad contract for most teams, but for Hicks, it's almost decent with its short commitment in terms of years. I was half expecting this deal to be for about 9 years with a few player options. (I still, before I die, want to know what went on at the negotiating table between Boras and Hicks in 2000. Seriously, how did Boras convince Hicks to pay Arod $250 million when he knew the 3 biggest maret teams - Yankees, Mets, Red Sox - were out of it. How did he do that? And after that, how does Hicks ever do business with him again? Some things I guess I'll never understand. Like the clitorous. Where the hell is that damn thing anyway?)

Derek Jeter and Cloak of Invincibility

2006-12-19T18:03:00.000-05:00

I know I'm ripping off the title from FJM, but it was just too good to pass up. So another day, another fawning Jeter article. Our latest entry comes to up courtesy of Baseball Digest and Angelique Chengelis. The article (page 1, page 2) gushes over Jeter and gives the many reasons why he was chosen as the 2006 Baseball Digest Player of the Year. Here are some highlights from the article.

Only the 5th paragraph in we get reminded how many WS rings Jeter has won, "My parents always said to play hard, work hard," said Jeter, 31, who has four World Series rings with the Yankees. In case you forgot. Because one thing that announcers and reporters never mention about Jeter is how many WS rings he's won (much like David Eckstein's height and weight).

Joe Torre sums up exactly what it is that makes Jeter special "His ability is not off the charts like a Tiger (Woods) is or an Alex (Rodriguez's) is". "His is mainly a combination of a lot of attributes that make up this person." Translation: I know he's not as good as everyone makes him out to be or the best player on his own team, but I have to come up with some bullshit way to praise him since everyone believes he is the sole reason we won 4 WS in 5 years. Delving further into that statement, is that implying that AROD, Tiger Woods, other "talented" athletes are only made up of a few attributes??? Who knows, but I'm pretty sure Joe is gonna explain what he means in the next paragraph.

"You don't really appreciate him until you get a chance to see him on a regular basis." Torre continues to try and string together BS to keep praising Jeter, but here a makes a statement which is able to be evaluated and completely false. Because see the reason that people "appreciate" and praise Jeter so much is because they DON'T see him on a regular basis. They see the flip from the 2001 ALDS (btw-Jeremy Giambi is a fat slob who should never have been on base in a 1 run game in the 7th inning and should have slid into home) or the leap into the stands from the July 1, 2004 game against the Red Sox and use that as justification for Jeter's greatness. In other words, they use several selected highlights to appreciate him which is the exact opposite claim Torre is making. Torre is wrong because if you did see Jeter on a regular basis you would see all the ground balls that he doesn't get to which dribble through for base hits or you would see him getting picked off 2B with 1 out in the 8th inning of a tie game at Fenway on May 1.

Then it goes on to blab about how respectful he is, and how nice he is and about his clean cut image (appparently facial hair is a no-no if you want to be honored as POY or MVP--maybe that's why Pujols lost the NL MVP, too much facial hair). Then we get to the good stuff. From Alan Trammell "He's a true Yankee, but more, he's a true baseball player. He's into the team winning." What is a "true" baseball player as compared to say a "false" baseball player. Would that be someone pretending to be a baseball player only in baseball for the money??? In any case, the 2nd sentence is really annoying. What top level baseball player (or athlete for that matter) isn't into the team winning. Sure, you could point to a couple of cases like TO or Manny (when he basically quit the last 5 weeks of the 2006 season), but is there anyone out of Morneau, Hafner, Ortiz, Mauer, Santana, Pujols, Howard, Beltran, etc who isn't into the team winning??? I haven't seen any discernible evidence yet, but feel free to offer it up. Oh and by the way, David Ortiz played in multiple games the day of and the day after he spent the night in the hospital for an irregular heartbeat. If that doesn't demonstrate being "into team winning" then what does??? Oh yeah, showing a fist pump from the top step of the dugout after one of your 8 All-Star teammates drives in a run to put your team ahead.

Finally, there's a little sidebar titled "Leadership at its Best-Jeter brings more than bat and glove to the field". Meaning that we should be ready to have intangibles (i.e. those special things that Jeter does which no other player in baseball does and aren't actually measurable or objectively determined) thrown at us left and right. "This is why Derek Jeter is the game's most valuable player--because he has great talent, creates a winning atmosphere in the most difficult arena in the major leagues (NYC) and generates the highest level of play from his teammates." Let's take a look at those three attributes.

1) He has great talent---I would argue that he has good (not great) talent, but that's splitting hairs. Also, isn't the whole thing about Jeter that he doesn't amazing ability (which Torre mentions earlier in this article), but he makes up for it with his intangbles and leadership???

2) Creates a winning atmosphere in most difficult arena in major leagues---I guess NYC is the most difficult environment to play in. Sure, we'll grant him that. But to say that one person is solely responsible for the "winning atmosphere" is just ludicrous. Basically this implies that if you took Jeter away from any Yankee team in the last 10 years, there wouldn't be a winning atmosphere. Quite laughable really since we already showed that the Yankees did just fine without Cap'n Jetes in May 2003 here (#3). I think the "winning atmosphere" in NY has generally been due to stellar pitching staffs (1995-2001) and batting orders with multiple All-Stars and MVP's (2002-2006).

3) Generates the highest level of play from his teammates-again, we have something that is completely impossible to prove and is based purely on people's opinion. So we're to believe that the reason Wang Chien-Ming had such a great year was because of Jeter, his leadership and atmosphere creation abilities. Or that the reason that Mo Rivera has been so good over the past 10 years (especially in the postseason) is somehow due to Jeter. Alright, sure fine, whatever, maybe he sings lullabies to them before games or massages their sore muscles afterwards and that results in their high level of play. But let's take a look at AROD. He's played in NY for 3 years now. 2 of those 3 years were below average years (compared to his standards) and 1 was average/above average for his standards. It seems that since arriving in NY, AROD hasn't shown the "highest level of play" from his teammates. But this contradicts Jeter's magical intangibles including his ability to generate the highest level of play from his teammates. So there you have it. Jeter doesn't generate the highest level of play from his teammates. Case closed.

Then the sidebar concludes by showing all the accomplishments the Yankees have achieved during Jeter's 11 years there (11 playoff appearances, 10 AL East titles, 6 pennants, 4 WS titles--in case you forgot). Thus, once again we are reminded of all the success which Jeter himself is solely responsible for. Then they throw in his statistics (the highly irrelevant old-school ones) for good measure: hits, runs, HR, doubles, triples, SB, BA and the fact that he has won 2 Gold Gloves (technically 3 now). Which is a whole other post for a whole other time that I will attend to.

P.S. Besides the GG comment in the sidebar, not one mention of Jeter's fielding anywhere throughout the article.

Win Shares and "Valuableness"

2006-11-30T19:18:00.000-05:00

As glad as I am that Derek Jeter did not win the MVP, there are still things to be said about the MVP award and overall player "valuableness" (if that's even a word). So to begin...

Offensive Valuableness: Although this idea just hit me yesterday, I'm sure that it already exists as some stat that I've read about before but forgotten. So we've been saying here that Jeter really isn't that valuable to the Yankees (surrounded by 8 other All-Stars & 2 former MVP's, etc..). But there hasn't really been a way to quantify it, until now. (Note the following stats are from ESPN's Stats page provided by Stats, Inc.) So everyone knows that Jeter beat Morneau in RC with 128.2 to 119.7 which does indicate that Jeter provided more offensive production than Morneau. However, what if you took Jeter's RC (i.e. offensive contribution to the Yankees) and found it as a % of the total RC by the Yankee team (952.5) and did the same for Morneau with the Twins (809.7). Jeter accounts for 13.5% of the Yanks RC (theoretical) and Morneau for 14.8% of the Twins RC (theoretical). So Morneau created a larger % of runs (i.e. offensive value)for his team. Doesn't that therefore make him more valuable? Now the obvious problem with this method of calculation is that if you took Travis Hafner and put him on a team with 8 Nefi Perez's, his % of RC would probably be somewhere near 75%, but of course the team would never win. So yes as your team diminishes, a player's value would increase, but past a certain point the argument doesn't hold. It probably isn't good for an absolute comparison between 2 players, but rather a relative comparison between 2 players that are very similar in other statistical areas (this year Jeter, Ortiz, Hafner, Frank Thomas, Mauer, etc..) Now one could make the argument that transplanting someone like Hafner onto the Yankees and instantly his % of RC (and therefore valuableness) would drop. However, I'd like to think that if Hafner batted with AROD/Giambi/6 other All-Stars protecting him, his stats (and RC) would improve since he would see more pitches to hit with a much better lineup and thus accumulate hits rather than walks. Granted, this is only a measurement for offensive production and does not take into account defense or baserunning (or "intangibles"--which basically means being lucky enough to win 4 WS rings in your first 5 years). It seems to me that this would be a logical way to judge how valuable a player was to his team on a purely offensive basis during a year.

Win Shares: Win shares is a statistic used by sabermaticians to argue about player's statistical performance during a season. Although the idea is well-intentioned "evaluating the contribution of individual players to their teams' overall performance..", it fails in that player's who play on teams which underperform relative to their RS and RA are punished (in that their WS totals are lower than they should be). The majority of Win Shares accrued by players is based on offense so this discussion is only dealing with those. There are 4 possible scenarios that can happen in any game due to 2 categories of outcomes summarized in the table below:

Results on Offensive Win Shares	Team Wins	Team Loses
Player performs well	Players gets large credit towards WS	Players gets no credit (deserved) towards WS
Players performs poorly	Players gets little credit towards WS	Players gets no credit (undeserved) towards WS

When a player's team wins he gets the large or small amount of credit that is due to him based on his offensive performance. When the team loses, the player gets 0 credit towards WS. If the player performed poorly, then he was losing very credit he would have gotten if they won (although if you use a system with negative win shares, I suppose it is possible that in winning a player would receive negative win shares for extremely poor performance which would lower his WS as compared to adding 0 from a loss). Now, if the player performed well but the team loses, he gets no credit, whereas he should have received a large amount. This is the fundamental flaw (as I see it) in WS. Players who perform well in games where they team still loses are penalized in that their WS are artificially low. Case in point: Travis Hafner. Hafner played on a team last year which scored 90 more runs than they allowed last year, but finished 4 games under .500. How does this happen? Terrible pitching or more specifically terrible bullpen pitching. A theoretical example follows: suppose Travis Hafner has an excellent day at the plate (2-5, HR, 3 RBI). The Indians have the lead entering the 8th 4-3. However, the White Sox come back and steal the win 5-4. Thus, Hafner gets no (due) credit for his performance. But if they could have held the lead, then Hafner would have gotten something added onto his WS total. Perhaps you realized that his scenario I just described actually happened. Multiple times. The Indians blew 23 save chances last year, which didn't even lead the AL--thank you KC, but they did have the worse save % in all of baseball--51%. If the Indians were league average and saved 66% of their games, they would have had 7 more wins, which would have meant some more credit for Hafner (the level of which is unknown). The whole point of this is that Hafner's WS total is dependent upon 2 things: his individual performance to produce offense (which he has complete control over--for the most part) and his team's ability to win baseball games (which he has somewhat minimal control over--especially on the pitching side). Thus, when relief pitchers or even starting pitchers blow games and the Indians lose those games even though Travis Hafner played tremendously well, he doesn't get any credit towards helping his team win (even though in some cases he clearly did).

P.S. He beats Jeter in OBP, SLG and provided essentially the same value as Jeter offensively in 5 months that Jeter did over 6 months. Plus, he has his own freakin' candy bar. Not some gay cologne. We love Travis Hafner.

The Jokesters at MLB.com

2006-11-26T22:28:00.000-05:00

As I'm sure you've all noticed, fiscal sanity has taken a vacation this fall, and GM's across the continent from Toronto to Chicago to Los Angeles have been throwing money around more foolishly than my high school friends on an underage Malaysian boy cruise (i.e. very foolishly).

In particular the signings of Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews Jr have drawn considerable and much deserved criticism from sports writers (even NY Post's George King was able to take some time out from imagining that Beltran was more valuable than Pujols in 2006). Amusingly, there is one place that each of these signings is seen as a great move. One place that can find no fault with these soon to be albatross contracts. And that place is as you may guessed www.mlb.com

Regarding the Dodgers signing of Juan Pierre to a shocking $45 million dollar deal, MLB struggled to find positive things to write, choosing to point out that Pierre played 162 games in 2006 rather than focus on his .330 OBP or his career high in outs. Unable to come up with enough to say regarding Pierre's 2006 season, MLB.com rather hysterically drifts back to 2003:

During the Marlins' championship season of 2003, Pierre finished 10th in National League MVP voting, as he led the league in five categories, including games (162), at-bats (668), stolen bases (65), singles (168) and sacrifice hits (15).

Any Dodgers fans out there worrying about how their team will score runs in 2007 can surely take solace in knowing that in 2003, their new centerfielder led the National League in sacrifice hits. So when Pierre comes up with a runner on third and less than 2 outs, fans can rest assured that he will indeed ground out.

MLB.com's thoughts on the Angels signing of Gary Matthews Jr are priceless. The whole article can be found here, but before we go over some highlights, lets take a look at Gary Matthews Jr.
It's pretty obvious that this 32 year old centerfielder had a career year in 2006, but just how much of an anomaly his season was may surprise you.

Matthews	Runs	HR	RBI	HITS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Career Avg.	79	14	58	136	.263	.336	.419	.755
2006	102	19	79	194	.313	.371	.495	.866

Clearly, the Angles are paying Matthews with the expectation that his career will continue along like his 2006 season. This is a big chance the usually cautious Angels are taking, and quite frankly there is no evidence to support their assumption. MLB.com apparently sees no risk:

The Angels landed a centerpiece for their holiday table with the signing of free agent Gary Matthews Jr. on Wednesday
Matthews represents an offseason victory for the Angels
The 32-year-old will take over in center field and provide Gold Glove-caliber defense while adding speed and some power to the top of the order

MLB.com seems to have Matthews confused with Johnny Damon, or Vernon Wells. Oh well, we all should have known Matthews would be woefully overpaid as soon as he made the All Star team and Travis Hafner did not.

Now it's time to sit back and wait to see who will be the next team to overpay for a mediocre player. Who will get the next outragious contract? Surely a pitcher will sign soon, and whether it's Schmidt, Suppan, Lilly, Meche or Zito the team who signs them will most likely regret it within a few years. But probably not as much as the Angels will regret the Matthews signing. And when they do, I don't expect to read about it on MLB.com.

AL MVP Voting---George King is an Idiot

2006-11-22T00:01:00.000-05:00

Earlier today (11/21) in a chat Rob Neyer was asked

"Connor (Seattle): Why do we get so wrapped up in these nonsense awards? Who cares who wins the silver slugger or the gold glove? My opinion - every player would trade MVP or Gold Glove for a World Series Ring.

Rob Neyer: The awards themselves have little "meaning," but they do give us a chance to ask some important questions, and for that reason alone they serve us well.

Eh..not exactly. To quote Biff from B2TF pt 2: "Now, McFly, let's here the right answer?"
Ok, the reason people care so much is because the awards (which are for the most part meaningless/nonsense) are used by people justify arguments such as HOF status, but also used to justify other awards. Case in point: Tim Kurkjian on ESPNEWS today talking about Derek Jeter (note: the good part is about 35 seconds in):

"..But when you look at Jeter's numbers, 2nd in the league in Runs scored, etc, etc...Gold Glove at a premium defensive position for the best team in the league..etc."

I guess the reason reason that people (such as myself) care so much about these awards is because there are other people who place too much stock in them and use them to justify other things (even other awards). So we (the ones who care) pretty much know the awards are meaningless, but because other people out there think they are the end-all be-all in player evaluation, we want them to be awarded fairly and accurately. Because otherwise you end up with idiots trying to tell you that Jeter is a good defensive fielder because he has won 3 Gold Gloves (which everyone who follows baseball knows is not true).

We're not going to spend much more time debating and rehashing all the arguments because you can find them everywhere, but I just want to mention a couple of points regarding the voting and the arguments that have emerged in the final 3 days.

Keith Law called Morneau "a laughable choice for MVP" (then quickly changed the title of his post to "Mauer would've been better choice") . He is correct that is you are judging MVP purely on statistics and placing significant weight on fielding ability, then Morneau finishes a distant 3rd (or worse) behind Mauer and Jeter. But MVP has never been based purely on statistics (if it was, AROD would have 6 by now). He did note (correctly) some terrible voting mistakes such as leaving Mauer off of 5 ballots, someone voting AJ Pierzynski 10th (wtf?), and 3 people who put Frank Thomas 2nd despite the fact that he was only the 3rd best DH in the AL much less overall player.

Buster Olney laid out a fairly good case for Morneau being the MVP and it contains many of the same reasons we used here at REAL BBBB. He cites their statistics relative to their positions in the lineup (#3 vs #5 for Mauer vs Morneau) and something you might not have known "Morneau had more RBI with runners in scoring position than any player in the majors, while ranking 11th in RISP at-bats." In comparing Morneau to Mauer, its obvious that Morneau generated more runs on the offensive end (as demonstrated by RC 119.7-107.6). I'd like to see a "Runs Prevented" metric for defensive ability. How many more runs did Mauer prevent with his excellent defense than Morneau with his average defense? If the sum total of Runs Created/Runs Prevented comes out higher I would have no problem with judging Mauer as more valuable than Morneau.

Now to talk about Jeter, Buster Olney makes an excellent point which somehow every Jeter lover always overlooks: "Offense from No. 2 hitters like Jeter is great but not necessarily integral, not when you've got a $13 million guy hitting in front of you, a $15 million-a-year guy batting third, a $25.2 million player batting cleanup and a $17 million-a-year guy hitting fifth. "
Or as we've been saying here at REAL BBBB all along, "8 All-Stars and 2 former MVP's providing batting lineup protection couple with subpar SS defense and the best closer of all time, yet a #2 singles hitter is the reason they win." No, didn't think so. Which brings us to my next point.

In response to the above argument, many people have been saying that because Morneau had 2 teammates who finished in the top 10 of the voting (and Jeter didn't) that the argument about Jeter's supporting cast isn't valid and therefore Morneau really wasn't all that important. This argument is complete crap because while it is true that Santana performed better than any starting pitcher and Mauer perhaps performed better than any other Yankee hitter, the fact remains that the other 7 Twins hitters performed much much worse than the other 8 Yankee hitters (on an individual basis)--including those other 8 hitters which have all been All-Stars and have 3 MVP's between them. Same thing with the pitching. Santana had 24 QS, Mussina 23. Comparing all other starters Minn 49, NY 56. Or look at starters ERA besides Santana & Mussina: Twins 5.44, Yankees 4.82. So yes, the Twins had one A+++ starter and one A+ catcher besides Morneau, but there are also 18 other players on the Twins (C's, D's, F's---Kyle Lohse, Scott Baker) significantly worse than those other 24 on the Yankees.

Finally, Rob Neyer had a whole post about deciding the MVP as an empiricist (statistics) or intuitionist (best player on a winning team). The MVP isn't clearly defined so some people vote one way and some people vote another way. If you want to make the award an empiricist award, fine; a logical argument could be made for Jeter on the basis of his VORP and Win Shares (although again, I believe this total is inflated because of his team) that deserves the MVP. And although he does come up lacking in certain statistical measures (even VORP where he barely beat a guy who didn't swing a bat for the final month of the season), on pure ~~statistical~~, offensive statistical evidence there's a case to be made for Jeter as MVP. Now on the other side, you have the argument player who was the most pivotal factor in helping his team reach the playoffs. The question really is "Who was most responsible for Team X winning?" This would be how Frank Thomas finished so high in the voting. While some use the same statistics to determine the answer, its an inherently different question than "Who was the best player?" Frank Thomas clearly wasn't the 4th best player in the AL; he probably wasn't even 10th best in the AL. But if you took him away from the A's, they would probably go from a division winning team to a middle of the pack .500 team battling it with Texas (or so the argument would go). What Neyer and Law refuse to comprehend is that removing Jeter from the Yankees would have minimal impact on the number of wins and overall offensive output (this gets into a whole side argument about win shares which I am going to post later). This also comes back to the name of the award (Most Valuable Player, not Player of the Year). Thus, I don't think Jeter can honestly be considered as an Intuitionist candidate. As a statistical (empiricist) argument, sure, an argument combining statistical and intuitional evidence, perhaps, but not using soley intuitionist reasoning which is apparently what most voters did this year (as in most year's past).

One more thing. George King is a total moron. This guy has the gall to complain about the MVP voting here. Now you might be asking doesn't he have the right to complain about the voting? And the answer is no. No he doesn't. Not when he left Pedro (23-4, 2.07, .92, 313) Martinez off his MVP ballot completely because he claimed "MVP is for everyday players. Pitchers have their own award.", yet voted for 2 pitchers (David Wells, Rick Helling) the year before (1998) for the exact same award. Email George King: george.king@nypost.com and tell him "George, you have no right to complain about the MVP voting this year when you left Pedro Martinez off your ballot in 1999 because you said pitchers aren't eligible for MVP, yet you voted for 2 pitchers the year before (in 1998). "

P-Robbed

2006-11-20T21:54:00.000-05:00

Ryan Howard wins the NL MVP over Albert Pujols. Most people would agree that Pujols was clearly better than Howard this season (except of course that he had fewer HR and RBI's which could be attributed both to a 2 week absence and playing in a pitcher's park instead of a bandbox). We don't need to run down the litany of statistics which could used to demonstrate this point as Rob Neyer has already done here. What I would like to do is point out three interesting (and somewhat stupid things about this vote):

1) Pujols was actually voted 3rd on 1 ballot - One writer (*cgh, *cgh George King) voted Beltran ahead of Pujols. It's not that Beltran had a *bad* year; it's just that Pujols was better than him in almost every offensive aspect of the game (one interesting stat to compare--SLG in close & late situations---Pujols .792, Beltran .532---Yes Pujols outslugged Beltran by over 400 pts in close & late situations). Also, even though Beltran's numbers may be worse than they should be since his home AVG was the worst in the NL, Pujols home park was no hitter's paradise either. So, the statistical argument for Beltran is pretty weak (unless you base it completely on the fact that he plays CF a more demanding position than 1B). Plus, (and this is essentially the anti-Derek Jeter argument which I've yet to see be refuted yet), Beltran's supporting cast (offensively) was much much better than Pujols. If you don't already know this because you live in a cave, then I would offer the fact that the Mets had players ranked 20, 24, 58th (Reyes, Wright, Delgado) in VORP (not including Beltran) and the Cardinals 55th (Rolen). So you can't make the he's the reason that the team wins argument (which is essentially the one used for Ryan Howard--even though he had the best offensive 2B in all of baseball in his lineup). So what's the reason left to vote for Beltran over Pujols then?

2) The gawdy HR/RBI totals persuaded the voters in the NL - There's a perception that voters drool over extremely high HR/RBI (i.e. power) numbers and give those much more weight in voting for MVP (if you aren't familiar with that go here). The fact that Ryan Howard won the award would seem to indicate that trend is continuing. Which should bode well for David Ortiz. Did Ortiz lead the league in HR's (check). Lead the league in RBI's (check). Yet, Ortiz will be lucky to finish 3rd all because the Red Sox faded down the stretch and finished 3rd. Maybe it was because Ortiz simply faded down the stretch in September. Nope, already debunked that myth here. The point of all of this is that in the NL the voters go for the gawdy HR/RBI totals while ignoring a player with better offensive (and defensive numbers), while in the AL it looks like they are going to not award a player with the gawdy offensive numbers (Ortiz), but rather one without the gawdy power numbers and whose numbers are worse (Jeter). So, shouldn't the same uniform standard be applied to both leagues???

3) Some baseball writers are total morons - Although this is really a continuation of #1, it bears repeating: some baseball writers have absolutely no clue what when it comes to evaluating baseball players & their statistics. Although this will be expanded more in our next post on the AL MVP race, it's clear that some writers know only about their hometown and much else. Lance Berkman was 9th on 1 writer's ballot. Yes, 9th. Looking at the stats he was 3rd in OPS, 4th in VORP, 3rd (tied) in Win Shares, and hit a ton of homeruns on a terrible offensive team (next to last in SLG, 6th to last in Runs). So its very difficult to make the stats argument that there were 8 players better (statistically) than Berkman. How about the winning team/playoff argument? Although Houston finished with worse records than PHI or STL, they were closer to making the playoffs than other team and only missed by 1.5 games. Think maybe Berkman's Sept. had anything to do with it (9/24/.330/1.109). Also, if you look at the other 5 players besides Pujols/Beltran/Howard who were voted ahead of him on this ballot, you either have more players on the Mets (who are somehow more valuable despite being an additional player on a team with a higher ranking MVP candidate as compared to a player on a team with no MVP candidate), Marlins (who finished behind Houston in the Wild Card race), Nationals (no way Soriano can be considered MVP until his OBP is at least .370), Phillies (re-read the article for multiple Mets candidates), or Padres. In any case, there is no excuse for voting Lance Berkman 9th because he was not statistically worse than 8 other players in the NL nor was "contribution to team winning playoff possibility" worse.

A-Robbed

2006-11-11T14:09:00.000-05:00

A-Rod has been despised by Yankee fans and sportswriters for pretty much all of the 2006 season. Now we find out just how far that anomisity extends when we see that Joe Crede was voted the "Silver Slugger" at 3B in the AL for 2006. Never mind the fact that the only offensive categories that Joe Crede beat A-Rod in were Doubles (31 to 26) and GIDP (21 to 25). Not AVG. Not HR. Not RBI. Not OPS. Not SecA. Not EqvA. Not IsoP. Not RC/27. One might wonder then how Joe Crede would be chose to receive the Silver Slugger award. A quick trip to the wikipedia entry for Silver Slugger Awards provides all the details we need to know:

"Winners are picked by major league managers and coaches, who are not allowed to vote for their own players. "

Oh. So that's why.

Arod vs. Jeter: The Idiot's Debate

2006-11-09T16:43:00.000-05:00

Recently, I received an email from a buddy of mine which included some very odd statements, which I will share with you, dear readers. One thing that my cowriter and I here at realbbbb cannot stand is when people make statements and offer no evidence of any kind to substantiate it. For example, my father recently said "I don't know why people hate George Bush so much, he's done a fine job in office." I asked him to clarify that a bit, and provide some evidence and he sort of mumbled and trailed off. This irritates me more when it comes to baseball, because unlike politics, I actually know a lot about it, and when people tell me things I know they have no evidence for, it really aggrevates me. (The only thing that upsets me more, is when I catch myself doing this and then rush to see if I was right and realize that regrettably I was not)

The 3 statements by my friend to which I most strongly object can be found in the following uninteresting post.

1. "Arod can't hold Jeter's jock. Besides Jeter is a clutch player."

Assuming he does not mean this literally, this is quite plainly a stupid thing to say. I cannot imagine what statistics he is thinking of when he said this, and I'm left to assume he was simply ignoring the stats all together. He'd have to be, because I've listed them in the following table. It's not a tough comparison.

Derek Jeter vs Alex Rodridguez Career Offensive Statistics

	Games	Runs	SB	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	OPS
Rodriguez	1746	1358	241	464	1347	.386	.573	.959
Jeter	1679	1277	249	183	860	.388	.463	.851

I see no need to discuss the numbers in the above table. Therefore, I will not.

Now onto the 'clutch' part. Most baseball statisticians will tell you that clutch hitting does not exist. The fine people at Baseball Prospectus have taken the time to more or less prove that no hitter is consistently clutch from year to year. The most likely reason for this is luck. To get a hit in a particular at bat, no matter how good you are, or how much you want to get a hit the most you can do is try to hit the ball hard. Even if you do, more often than not the ball is going to be caught.

To satisfy those who want to know, let's take a look at the two players in question and see how they did with Runners In Scoring Position (RISP) Shall we?

	Avg w/ RISP	OBP w/ RISP	Slug w/RISP
Jeter '05	.261	.386	.355
Jeter '06	.381	.482	.581
Career	.307	.405	.433

Arod '05	.290	.410	.484
Arod '06	.303	.431	.508
Career	.303	.398	.528

Obviously, Jeter's 2006 is pretty damn good. Surprisingly for some, Arod's 2006 is also good. Though clearly, not as good. However, Jeter's "clutchness" if you will certainly varies from '05 to '06. Through their careers they are fairly similar with Jeter holding a slight edge in Average and OBP, and Arod having the expected large advantage in Slugging. Make of the numbers what you will, but sometimes just because you feel certain ways about players, that doesn't make it true.

2. "Obviously Jeter is better, he's got 4 rings and Arod has none, and Jeter is the career leader in postseason hits ands runs."

Not sure where to start here. I suppose we'll start with the idea that the number of World Series rings a player wins is directly related to how good that player is. (dwthb-for those mathetmatically inclined folks (such as myself), such an equation might look like this: where Sl = Skill Level and Ws = # of World Series Rings won.) We all know this is not the case. World Series are won by team and not players, unless the one player in question is a starting pitcher who starts 3 times in a 7 game series (gibson, lolitch, koufax, matthewson) and dominates. His suggestion that the reason Arod has not won a world series and Jeter has is that Jeter is the better player is perhaps a bit misdirected. A better reason for the disparity in W.S. rings can be seen in the following table.

Rodriguez

Jeter

1996

Team ERA: 5.21

Ace: Sterling Hitchcock: 13-9, 5.35

Closer: Norm Charlton: 20 sv, 4.04

Team ERA: 4.65

Ace: Andy Pettitte: 21-8, 3.87

Closer: John Wetteland: 43 sv, 2.83

1997

Team ERA: 4.79

Ace: Randy Johnson: 20-4, 2.28

Closer: Norm Charlton: 14 sv, 7.27

Team ERA: 3.84

Ace: Pettitte: 18-7, 2.88

Closer: Mariano Rivera: 43 sv, 1.88

1998

Team ERA: 4.95

Ace: Jamie Moyer: 15-9, 3.53

Closer: Mike Timlin: 19 sv, 2.95

Team ERA: 3.82

Ace: Wells: 18-4, 3.49

Closer: Mariano Rivera: 36 sv, 1.91

1999

Team ERA: 5.24

Ace: Freddie Garcia: 17-8, 4.07

Closer: Jose Mesa: 33 sv, 4.98

Team ERA: 4.13

Ace: Orlando Hernandez: 17-9, 4.12

Closer: Mariano Rivera: 45, 1.83

2000

Team ERA: 4.50

Ace: Aaron Sele: 17-10, 4.51

Closer: Kazuhiro Sasaki: 37 sv, 3.16

Team ERA: 4.76

Ace: Clemens: 13-8, 3.70

Closer: Mariano Rivera: 36 sv, 2.85

2001

Team ERA: 5.71

Ace: Rick Helling: 12-11, 5.17

Closer: Jeff Zimmerman: 20 sv, 2.40

Team ERA: 4.02

Ace: Roger Clemens: 20-3, 3.51

Closer: Mariano Rivera: 50 sv, 2.34

2002

Team ERA: 5.15

Ace: Kenny Rogers: 13-8, 3.84

Closer: Hideki Irabu: 16 sv, 5.74

Team ERA: 3.87

Ace: David Wells: 19-7, 3.75

Closer: Mariano Rivera: 28 sv, 2.74

2003

Team ERA: 5.67

Ace: John Thomson: 13-14, 4.85

Closer: Ugueth Urbina: 26 sv, 4.19

Team ERA: 4.02

Ace: Mike Mussina: 17-8, 3.40

Closer: Mariano Rivera: 40 sv, 1.66

Obviously, pitching is what wins. Only once from 1996-2003 did Arod's team post a better ERA than Jeter's team. That would be in 2000, when the two teams met in the 2000 ALCS, with the Yankees beating the Mariners in 6 games. Before you ask, Arod batted .409 with a 1.253 OPS in that series. (It's rare for one pitcher to singlehandedly win a series, but common for a pitcher to lose a series. Exhibit A would be Arthur Rhodes in this ALCS, who blew 2 games and ended the series with an ERA of 31.50)

It's also worth noting how important closers truly are. The Yankees have had 2 closers during Jeter's time as their shortstop, while Arod's teams had different (and minimally successful) closers in every year but one.

Last thing in regard to this quote. Jeter is in fact the career leader in postseason hits and runs. I can't argue that. He is however, also the career leader in at bats, strikeouts and total outs. Why? Because he's played so many postseason games (only Bernie Williams has appeared in more).

3. "As Jeter goes, the Yankees go."

This is a strange statement. And frankly, a hard one to prove or disprove, as would be any other example of a player and team, especially without the benefit of a statistics team working behind me. There are basically 2 ways to go about checking on this that I can think of. The first is comparing Jeter's statistics in Yankee Wins vs. his stats in Yankee losses. Unfortunately, loser though I am, I have neither the time nor resources to do this.

The other way is to look at the teams performance without the player in question. The only such evidence we have is the 2003 season, when Jeter dislocated his shoulder on a slide into third (thank you Ken Huckaby). He missed the month of April that year. So the question is, did the Yankees suffer?

The answer is no. They went 20-6 in April of 2003, their best record in any month that season. They also allowed the fewest runs of any month in their season that April. Obviously, this is a pretty small sample size and it probably doesn't tell us much. But at the very least it tell us that the Yankees can probably survive without Jeter. What's interesting, and I don't want to beat this argument into the ground (because if anybody who still thinks Jeter is one of the best fielding shorstops out there obviously doesn't care much for "facts") but lets look at range factors for the team, shall we?

Erick Almonte; 4.14

Enrique Wilson: 3.94

Derek Jeter: 3.75

Let's not forget that the league average for shortstops that year was 4.54. Small samples, but worth noting.

One last attempt at taking this statement down. Jeter has hit .500 in 2 different playoff series: The 2002 ALDS vs. Anaheim and the 2006 ALDS vs. Detroit. Yankees lost both series in 4 games. What does that mean? That when Jeter is at his best, it's just not enough to carry a team as my buddy suggests. By the way, it's obviously still impressive to hit .500 in a 4 game series, but it's clear that one player hitting .500 does not win a series.

These two examples are obviously small samples (a month in 2003, two 4 game series) but it's the best I could do without going through thousands of boxscores. (again)

One final note, I think that if you were to say that "as ------- goes, the Yankees go," wouldn't it have to be Mariano Rivera? Afterall from 1997-2001 when the Yankees were at their height, they failed to win the World Series twice in those 5 years. What happened in the playoffs in those 2 years that didn't happen in the other 3? Rivera blew a save (1997 vs. Cleveland, 2001 vs. Arizona).

* For the record, this post was not about saying that Jeter is a bad player. He most certainly is not. He's a very good player. Anybody actually trying to say that he sucks, is retarded. But the ideas that he is better than Arod, or that he's the reason the Yankees have won 4 World Series are simply silly ideas.

Other Off-Season Predictions

2006-11-06T17:33:00.000-05:00

Of course, there's more going on this offseason that just the 10 names we discussed earlier. So I offer up 7 other offseason discussion topics (teams, players, etc.) to really get that hotstove going. After all, there's more to do in the offseason that watch reruns of The Dog Whisperer on the National Geographic Channel - right?

1. Juan Pierre - The Cubs thought they had the perfect catalyst and table setter in front of Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. While Lee got hurt, Pierre simply underperformed. Or at least that was the thinking. But did he really? Here are his 2006 numbers compared to his 2005 numbers:

	Games	Hits	Runs	TB	SB	OBP	SLUG
2005	162	181	96	232	57	.326	.354
2006	162	204	87	271	58	.330	.388

It looks like Pierre actually improved on his '05 season, (and actually set a career high with 32 doubles) but suffered from a lack of more run producers behind him to drive him in. Pierre will only be 29 on opening day, and still in his "prime" so it's possible that a team that needs an outfielder could get a bargain here.
Atlanta needs a leadoff hitter and could use Pierre in left field for '07 and then to replace Andruw Jones in center when he leaves for boatloads of money after next season.
Chicago will probably want to keep Pierre and hope with a full season from Lee, that Pierre can get back to scoring 100 runs.
Giants might be in the market for an outfielder, maybe in left...

2. Daisuke Matsuzaka - There is a lot of speculation about the possible destinations for this far east import. How good will he be? Nobody really knows. He obviously has good stuff, but of course, so did Hideki Irabu. I think we can narrow down the possibilities to the following: Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers and Cubs. Would any other team be willing to shell out $30million just for the right to negotiate with Boras? (Personally, I think every team would be willing to spend $30million to drop Boras in the ocean.) What's interesting about the posting the process, is that if some team wanted to just block the Yankees, they could bid $60million and then just lowball Matsuzaka. If he stays in Japan, the MLB team gets its posting fee back. Interesting.
Most likely destination: Texas sees a quick fix for its pitching staff. And this team loves the idea of a quick fix (see Rodriguez, A - Park, C) and they have money to spend.

3. Gary Sheffield - Obviously, everybody should hate this guy, right? Has he ever left a team on good terms? Maybe Atlanta, but after his less than sterling 3-30 combined postseason effort with the Braves, I don't think Bobby Cox and Co. were begging him to stick around any longer. Does anybody else wonder why Sheffield was given a free pass after the Yankees' 2004 ALCS collapse? Did anybody notice that in games 4-7 Sheffield went 1-17 with 0 RBI? Somehow, this guy got a reputation as a big game player, but I dont know where or how. His career playoff batting average is .248, an OPS of .799, with 6 homers and 19 RBI in 44 games. But moving on, he would fit perfectly with the Phillies (between Utley and Howard) and in Houston, protecting Berkman. Those short fences would be fun for him to take aim at. And as Tyler Kepner of the NY Times pointed out this morning, since he's so close to 500 homers, a holdout for more money is unlikely.

4. Alex Rodriguez - If you stop any Yankee fan on the street (and right about now they are hard to find, try again next September, when as usual they come crawling out of the woodwork like the relatives of a lottery winner), they'll tell you what a choker Arod is. These no doubt, are the same people who in 2005 were arguing that he deserved the MVP. Admittedly, Arod's 2006 season was a dropoff from 2005 but he still hit 35 homers with 121 RBI. And after two consecutive lousy playoff series (fans forget that Jeter was a combined 6-44 in the 2001 ALCS/WS, but hey that's not his fault) fans want him out of town. Well, here are 2 big reasons why that won't happen:
1. With arod gone, the Yankee lineup would be a little onesided. Damon - Jeter - Abreu - Matsui - Giambi - Cano. Top 6 hitters, 1 righty. And that one has no power. The Yankees need Arod's righthanded bat to hit cleanup right between Abreu and Matsui, especially with Sheffield likely to be out the door.
2. At this point, Arod has to consider his decision to come to the Yankees a complete disaster. He will no longer be considered the greatest shortstop ever. The media is convinced that he cannot handle playing in NY and he constantly finds himself being compared to a player (Jeter) that he is clearly superior to in every imaginable way (looks not withstanding) but has had the misfortune, unlike Jeter, to arrive in NY when the pitching staff is not at the height of its strength and cannot carry the Yankees to the World Series. So what can he do? If he accepts a trade, in the eyes of many he is admitting that he can't handle it. Will his ego allow him to do that? I doubt it. My guess is if he can overcome being dropped to 6th and then 8th in the lineup in the playoffs (an epic managerial gaffe, of which only Rob Neyer of ESPN has even begun to mention the ramifications) ARod will return to hitting cleanup between Abreu and Matsui and have a career year. But hey, I've been wrong before.

5. Ervin Santana - Seems that a lot of big names have been mentioned in trade rumors with this young flamethrower. He gained notoriety by outdueling Mike Mussina in a big game (but really, how hard is that), and had a solid sophomore campaign in 2006. The Angels have apparently dangled him while trying to acquire Arod, Tejada and Carl Crawford. Obviously, those 3 players are All-Star quality offensive forces. But why would the Angels, at a time when young quality pitchers are worth their weight in HGH, I mean gold, dangle such a hot commodity? Are they scared off by his 5.95 road ERA in 2006? A 24 year old starter in the AL who allows less than a hit/inning pitched and holds batters to a .311 OBP should be more of a centerpiece. But the Angels appear to want to upgrade their offense, and with Arod unlikely to be dealt, here's betting Santana ends up in Tampa Bay with Carl Crawford setting the table to Vlad.

6. Boston Red Sox - For the first 4 months of the 2006 season, the Red Sox miraculously conceled just how terribly flawed they were. Nobody seemed to notice how bad Beckett was actually pitching, or how the bullpen had only one reliable reliever, or how Matt Clement was a joke, or that David Wells wasn't back yet, or that Mark Loretta had about as much pop in his bat as Luis Castillo, but without the speed. All of that was conceled by the Consistencey of Schilling, Papelbon, Wakefield, Ortiz, Manny, and a plethora of big clutch hits and late inning comebacks. This team was so defying the laws of nature by not failing that God himself tried to kill it (Ortiz's heart, Jon Lester's illness). But now that the dust has settled, we can look back on the 2006 season and wonder how anybody thought a team starting Kyle Snyder and Jason Johnson had a chance to go anywhere. Now the questions are mounting for Boston:
Will Beckett actually be good? - He should be better. As soon as he remembers his changeup.
Does Schilling have one more year left in the tank? - Maybe not 6 months, but at least 4.
Will Wakefield come back strong? - Should be fine.
Can Clement just take out the clubhouse garbage each day?
Will Papelbon's shoulder handle starting? - Everything I've read indicates it should be good.
Who will close? - My money is on Gagne.
Who will set up? - Timlin was bad last year and got tired. Hansen is not ready. Tavarez looked
good while starting late in the season.
Who will play second and short? - Julio Lugo will probably fill one of those voids.
Where will the runs come from? - Besides Manny or Ortiz, who knows?
Is Varitek this bad? - Probably in a decline, but couldn't be that sharp.
Is Coco Crisp this bad? - has to improve unless contracts leprosy.
Should the Red Sox take a year to rebuild? - No. Too much money at stake. Landing Matsuzaka might turn things around in a hurry.

7. Harold Reynolds - It's just getting funnier. But hey, at least Boston Market gets some free advertising, right? http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/1031061espn1.html

There's a lot more going on this offseason, but frankly, I'm tired. And I'm sure DWTHB has some more to say. And hopefully, he won't call me, because I'm getting more sick of that guy then Dr. Nick Riviera is of the Coroner.

2006 Free Agent Preview

2006-11-02T19:50:00.000-05:00

Our 2006 Free Agent Preview
Since sportswriters often make terrible predictions, we decided to go ahead and make some of our own regarding the 2006 Free Agent class and where they will end up.

Player	DWTHTB	Tent Time	Actual Team
Carlos Lee	Rangers	Houston
dwtwtb - The Rangers have no problem spending big money on long term free agent contracts and traditionally favor hitters over pitchers. If Lee doesn't end up here, he goes to the Astros. TT - Houston has a lot of money to spend now that Bagwell, Pettitte and probably Clemens are off the books. Lee would provide a boost to their anemic offense and much needed protection for Berkman.
Alfonso Soriano	Orioles	Phillies
dwtwtb - This is the exact type of contract the Orioles would sign: a long term expensive deal for an offensive player they don't need. TT - Sure Baltimore will bid, but Philly needs a solid RH bat to put between Utley and Howard. If they fall short on Aramis Ramirez (and they probably will) they'll dump Burrell on someone and sign Soriano.
Barry Zito	Mets	Padres
dwtwtb - The Mets have money to spend, and aren't going to sit around hovering at .500 for 2 months waiting for Pedro to come back. They will sign Zito as a FA (getting to keep Milledge) and zoom right back to the top of the NL East TT - Sure the Zito-Peterson reunion would be a tearjerker, but SD will have some coin to spend and Zito's flyball tendencies sure would play well in Yellowstone - I mean Petco.
Aramis Ramirez	Cubs	Angels
dwtwtb - I think the Cubs are going to bite the bullet and sign Ramirez simply because they know he's a quality run producer (even if his fielding/baserunning hustle leave something to be desired), they need him with Derrek Lee, and they don't have any grade A 3B prospects. It's just going to suck for them that they're going to be paying $3-$4 million/yr more than they should have been because of that stupid out clause in his contract TT - Here's a familiar refrain: The Cubs Blew it. Not only did they insert said stupid out clause into Ramirez's contract but they were too stupid to get an extension done during the year. Instead, Ramirez will land in LA and provide much needed protection for Vlad.
Jason Schmidt	Cardinals	Cubs
dwtwtb - Mulder isn't coming back, who knows what to expect from Reyes/Weaver, Jason Marquis is just terrible, and I don't think Suppan is coming back unless the Cards want to shell out $50/million for 1 good postseason. So that leaves some openings in the rotation of the defending champs and Schmidt would benefit from staying in the NL (especially the NL central). TT - Having some cash leftover from letting Ramirez get away, here's betting that Chicago uses it to shore up their rotation with a 34 year old power arm. Does that really make a lot of sense? No. But its the Cubs so why not. Zambrano and Schmidt would be a formidable 1-2 punch for the Northsiders, at least for the 4 months when Schmidt is healthy. Or maybe they'll want to leave a rotation spot open for Prior. Ha, ha, I'm just kidding.
Barry Bonds	Tigers	Giants
dwtwtb - Bonds simply can't play the field with his knees and has to be a DH if he wants to continue playing and break Aaron's record. The Tigers need offense, particularly left-handed offense (unless Sean Casey is going to somehow bat .500 next year like the WS) and do not have a permanent solid DH. TT - Bonds to the Tigers does make sense in a vacuum. However, we must ask ourselves if another team is interested in putting up with his crap for the 110-125 games he would play. His skills are certainly diminished, and DH job would definitely make things a lot easier for him and Detriot would give him a good shot at getting back to the playoffs. But that isn't how Bonds thinks, so he'll probably stay in SF for one more just so he can take a shot at the record in that uniform. And besides, the Giants won't have much else going for them in 2007 anyway.
Mark Mulder	Braves	Red Sox
dwtwtb - Mulder was the toughest to predict and I originally thought he would go to the Indians since I don't think he's going to attract a lot of interest and they would scoop in like with Millwood 2 years ago. But they already have 4/5 of their young decent rotation set (Sabathia, Lee, Westbrook, Sowers) so I don't think Mulder wants to be a #3-#4 starter. Thus, I think the Braves will sign him due to uncertainty regarding Hampton (injury), Chuck James, Horatio Ramirez, Tim Hudson(terrible), and Kyle Davies. TT - While Mulder would probably love Atlanta, and who wouldn't, my guess is the Red Sox take a flyer on him. A lot of teams will probably have some interest, but the Sox have a lot of money. And a bad rotation.
Jeff Suppan	Yankees	Mets
dwtwtb - Suppan is exactly the kind of pitcher the Yanks would target in their desperate need for SP: a pitcher who has been inconsistent the past couple years but puts it together in the NL for one great year/posteason (Jared Wright, Carl Pavano, Chris Hammond, Steve Karsay) TT - Nobody got a better look at how good Suppan can be when the chips are down the Mets. But that wasn't actually Suppan's first taste of October success (see 2004 NLCS game 7 vs. Clemens). The Mets miss out on Zito and need an innings eater to balance out their rotation.
Nomar Garciaparra	Angels	Dodgers
dwtwtb - Nomar might re-sign with the Dodgers but it really doesn't make much sense for them since he will have to play the field (i.e. no days to rest but still get his bat) and they have James Loney waiting in the wings. I think he goes to the Angels who have a lot of young talent (Kendrick, Quinlan, M. Izturis, Aybar) which can be traded but no defined positions for each. Plus, Nomar wants to stay in So Cal. And the Angels offense was terrible last year. TT - Why would Nomar leave LA? Money of course, but hey, the Dodgers have lots of it and he seemed to enjoy it there, playing with Kent and that piece of human excrement we all refer to as J.D. Drew.
Vincente Padilla	Astros	Texas
dwtwtb - The Astros might jump on Suppan and if they do, I don't think they will sign Padilla, but if Clemens/Pettite don't return they will have major holes in their rotation. Of course they will also have about $28 million to fill those holes. I think they will pass on Suppan because some team will throw way too much money at a guy with a career 106-101 record and a 4.60/1.42 ERA/WHIP TT - Padilla proved last year he could be reasonably effective in Arlington (4.80 ERA, .269 BAA) and Texas is desperate for starting pitching. That all leads to a Padilla getting a contract that he probably can't and won't live up to.

Our Fantasy League in Review

2006-10-29T18:35:00.000-05:00

So the 2006 season is over and it saw our own little pussyface joshwhite finally get his first elusive fantasy title. So to anybody who says that Head to head is a lot of luck, you are correct.
In all seriousness, jw did a good job (mostly by adding Tori Hunter the Sunday before the finals started and then riding Hunter's unexpected power streak to the victory) and deserves, well, nothing from us. As has become my custom, I've prepared a season in review, which I'm sure not more than 2 of you will read (counting me).

Best Draft Pick:
Jermaine Dye: This 24th round selection by Beantown Boners ended the season as the 12th overall ranked player with 44 homers, 120 RBI and 1.007 OPS.

Honorable Mentions:
Franciso Liriano - I Laid Gretchen - 22nd Round:
12 Wins, 144 K's, 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP - 45th ranked player overall

Jonathan Papelbon - Beantown Boners - 19th Round
35 Saves, 75 K's, 0.92 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 14th ranked player overall

Aaron Harang - I Hate Baseball - 24th Round:
16 Wins, 216 K's (Both NL leaders) 3.76 ERA, 34th ranked player overall

Tom Gordon - Getting of the Juice - 19th Round
34 Saves, 68 K's, 3.34 ERA, drafted after Valverde, Dempster, Gonzalez, Foulke, Duchscherer

Jeremy Bonderman - A New Tie Wearing - 25th Round
14 Wins, 202 K's, Ranked 58th Overall ahead of Johnson, Peavy, Lackey, Sabathia, Schmidt

Brandon Webb - The Burrell Train - 13th Round
16 Wins, 178 K's, 3.10 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 31st overall player.
Drafted after: Tim Hudson, Brett Myers, Zito, Mulder

Note: With arguably the best two picks in the draft, how did Beantown Boners manage to finish the regular season in 6th place, a whopping 51 games off the pace?? Surely part of the blame rests on picks like Helton, Bonds, Ensberg and Isringhausen, part on his general incompetence and the rest on what I can only assume was a busy work schedule which left him able to make only 12 add/drops.

Worst Draft Pick:
Chone Figgins - New Look Same Suck - 3rd Round - 21st Overall
Sure he's versitile and steals bases, but he just crushes you in OPS, HR and RBI. How can you justify taking somebody who hurts you in half the categories with your first non-keeper pick? Still available: Berkman, Soriano, Halladay, Oswalt, Reyes

Honorable Mentions:
Felix Hernandez - New Look Same Suck - 4th Round - 28th Overall
A big gamble that did not pay off. Talk of limited innings and a lack of experience didn't stop Francis from attempting to anchor his staff with a 2o year old rookie with less than half a season under his belt. The result was not good.
Still Available: Zambrano, Berkman, Soriano, Randy Johnson

Juan Pierre - Taking the Plunge - 6th Round - 43rd Overall
Coming off a huge fantasy victory in 2005, Steve started 2006 with arguably the best keeper tandem in the league in Oritz and Manny. Could he mess it up? You bet your ass he could. Steve's first 4 non-keeper picks were Ichiro - Reyes - Harden - Pierre, a veritable murderer's row of the powerless and injury plagued. Why Steve felt the need to add Pierre to a roster teeming with singles hitters is beyond the realm of anyone's understanding. Unfortunately for Steve, it led to the rather amusing double meaning of his team name. Originally intended only to refer to his upcoming nuptials, "Taking the Plunge" also quickly and precisely portrayed his position in the standings.
Still Available: Sizemore, Konerko, Victor Martinez

Morgan Ensberg - Beantown Boners - 8th Round - 36th Overall
Coming off of an unexpected 36 HR season, it's understandable that some people would have high expectations. Ensberg didn't meet them, hitting .235 with 24 HR and whopping 58 RBI.
Still Available: Chipper Jones, Thome, Matsui, Ryan, Smoltz, Damon,

Best Free Agent Addition:
Matt Holliday - A New Tie Wearing - April 15
How was he available? We'll see in a bit. Holliday ended the year as the 9th overall player.
119 Runs, 196 Hits, 34 Homers, 114 RBI, 10 SB, .973 OPS.

Honorable Mentions:
Justin Morneau - The Burrell Train - June 15
A little late, but a huge contributer down the stretch. Morneau's second half is quite possibly the biggest reason this moron won the league.
23rd Overall Rank, 34 - 130, .934 OPS

J.J. Putz - I Hate Baseball - May 5
24th Overall player, 36 Saves, 104 K's (against 13 walks), 2.30 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 4 Wins

Garrett Atkins - Getting off the Juice - ??
19th Overall player; 117 Runs, 198 Hits, 29 HR, 120 RBI, .965 OPS

Others of Note:
Brian McCann (129th - Joshwite), Raul Ibanez (48th - Chris P.), Frank Thomas (98th - Megan)
Takashi Saito (35th - Chris P), Antonio Otsuka (92 - Francis), Bronson Arroyo (47th - Joshwhite), Michael Cuddyer (72nd - Chris F)

Worst Free Agent Drops:
Matt Holliday - New Look Same Suck - April 15th
Dropped the day before starting a 7 game homestand en route to a huge season. Not all was lost, though as Francis replaced him with Jay Gibbons. This decision likely sealed Francis's fate for the 2006 season.

Honorable Mention:
Hanley Ramirez - The Burrell Train - June 23rd
His OPS would be over .900 for the rest of the season and he'd end the year ranked 28th overall. But hey, sometimes you just have to add Anthony Reyes.

Worst Injuries:
Derrek Lee - I Laid Gretchen
Only team to lose more than a month from a postion player keeper. Even when he came back, his power stroke was gone.

Travis Hafner (and Gary Sheffield)- A New Tie Wearing
Certainly the least timely injury as Hafner's broken hand bone was discovered 2 days before the playoffs began. Would Joshwhite have beaten me by 2 RBI if Hafner was healthy? Probably not.
Hideki Matsui - New Look Same Suck
Francis's roster couldn't begin to overcome the loss of this perennial 100 RBI man for over 4 months. But at least he still had Holliday...

Pedro Martinez - Beantown Boners
Shocking.

Some Things of Interest:
So the third season of Head-to-head has come and gone and not once has the regular season champ won in the playoffs. 2006 actually marked the second consecutive year that the team with the best record didn't even make it to the finals. What does this tell us?
Nothing. Our playoffs are just like the MLB playoffs. It's a crapshoot. Whatever team gets hot (i.e. has Morneau) and stays healthy wins.
It's also the third different league winner in the last 3 years, so we definitely have some parity in our league, though some managers are more consistent than others. In the last 4 years, Megan's finishes have gone: 2-1-3-3
While Steve's have rather impressively gone: 8-8-1-8 (and yes, it's out of 8 players).
The rest:
Jon: 7-2-7-5
Chris F: 4-4-8-6
JW: 6-7-2-1
Francis: 3-5-6-7
Dave: 5-6-5-4
Chris P: 1-3-4-2
Is it funny or sad that the person who has averaged the best finish over the last 4 years claims to truly hate fantasy baseball?

Though I doubt a lot of you took notice, there were some cool new features to our league. One such feature showed each team's performance in each category. For example, all of our records in the Runs category. Theoretically this is a good place to look if your team is struggling, because it will show exactly where you need to improve (ex. Steve probably should have tried to trade for some power at some point, but hey, you know what they say about hindsight).

Here are the best and worst records in each stat:
Runs
Chris P: 19-6
Chris F: 9-16

Hits
Megan: 16-9
Chris F: 6-18-1

Home Runs
Chris P: 18-5-2
Steve: 5-18-2

RBI
Chris P: 18-7
Francis: 6-18-1

Steals
Steve: 20-5
Joshwhite: 7-14-4

OPS
Chris P: 15-10
Francis: 7-18

Wins
Dave: 14-9-2
Joshwhite: 6-13-6

K's
Dave: 18-7
Steve: 6-19

Saves
Chris P: 18-5-2
Steve: 6-18-1

ERA
Chris F: 16-9
Steve: 6-19

WHIP
Jon: 16-9
Megan: 10-15

K/BB
Jon: 19-6
Steve: 7-18

What does this tell us? Admittedly, not a lot. But how bad was Steve's team? His pitching was even worse than his hitting. Amusingly enough, Steve actually led the league in total Wins with 107. That tells us that he started a lot of extra pitchers and while he got the wins for it, his ratios paid the price. Something to think about.

Two of the most amusing weeks would have to be week #5 when Steve's team only hit 3 homers, and week #1 when Megan's team ERA was 7.49. The other weekly superlatives are on the leauge site under "record books" and I'm not interested in listing them all here.

For the third straight year, the winning team was very weak on closers and the team that finished second was stocked with them. Still not sure if this is just a coincidence, but I figure that like Jon's heterosexuality, it should probably be looked into.

The finals put on an exciting finish if anybody besides Joshwhite and I were paying attention, and you probably were not. We actually finished tied, with pussyface taking the title on the first tiebreaker, ERA. I'm not one to bitch and moan but the sack of shit beat me by just 2 RBI when I was without my best hitter the whole time, and on the last day of the season 8 (yes eight) of my starting offensive players took the day off. But hey, sometimes you get the breaks and sometimes a fucking piece of shit in Florida gets them. Not much can be done.

Looking toward 2007 those of us with our original keepers get one more year out of them, so on draft day in 2008 Pujols, Manny, Ortiz, Hafner, Arod, Santana, Wright, Crawford etc. will all be back in play.

Enjoy the winter.

Baseball journalists & sportswriters

2006-10-19T15:00:00.000-04:00

Sportswriters are much maligned. Maybe its because we think they have an easy job. Or maybe its because they get paid to watch and analyze sports. Or perhaps it is because they frequently put their foot in their mouth and make stupid, illogical and even flat out false statements.

Exhibit A: John Kruk has said on numerous occasions (most recently on 10/1 Baseball Tonight) that Ryan Howard put up amazing numbers "..despite batting in the #6-7 slot the first month, month and a half" (Previously he had said #7 slot).

Verdict: False. Howard batted in the #7 slot in 2 games: here and here. He batted in the #6 slot in 17 games (not going to bother listing all of them but they were pretty much all in April and start of May). Together we have 19 games. Hardly a month and a half, much less a month.

Exhibit B: A picture, but something's missing from it...it's just me WITHOUT MY BIKE---err nevermind, wrong exhibit...Richard Justice (a sportswriter for the Houston Chronicle) wrote on the subject of the Astros acquiring Alex Rodriguez (the best or possibly 2nd best player in all of baseball) to replace Adam Everett. Justice's opinion: "A-Rod? Absolutely not." He also said (1) "First of all, the guy is walking, talking distraction. If the Astros get A-Rod, they ought to go get Terrell Owens, too." He also said, (2) "He's not worth it, either in terms of salary (the team that acquires him will owe him $64 million over the next four years..." Finally (and this is mentioned purely for hillarity's sake) (3) "Listen, if Derek Jeter doesn't like you--and Derek Jeter has embraced a lot of different guys over the years--there's a problem."

Verdict: Stupid/Idiotic. Ignoring the obvious typo/grammar error in statement 1, I have yet to see A-Rod whine about how he needs a new contract less than a year after he just signed a multi-year deal because he needs money to feed his family, complain about the performance of his fellow teammates, or be suspended by his own team for detrimental conduct. As soon as AROD commits any of those actions, he can be lumped together with TO. Regarding statement 2, $64 million for 4 years is going to be a bargain for one of the best hitters in the game that plays a premium defensive position and plays it well (assuming he would go back to SS). Compare that to the contracts free agents Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano who both play OF (and LF for that matter) are going to get. Nevermind that AROD's OPS beat both of them and his RC/27 beat both of them at a premium defensive position. Also, while we here at REAL BBBB love Adam Everett in that he serves as a good benchmark point for SS fielding skill (cough, cough Jeter), he isn't the same ballpark as AROD offensively. Probably not even the same zip code, county, or state. Maybe the same region. But AROD's offense more than makes up for his subpar (at least compared to Adam Everett) defense--Hey Richard, did you know that AROD would have finished 1st (tied) in HR for SS, and 2nd in OPS for SS even in a down year???. Finally, we have come to the REAL reason why AROD has very little value as a baseball player: his Derek Jeter likability factor rating is too low (he's only a 2.5 which is barely above replacement-level).

Exhibit C: In a chat on Thursday, Rob Neyer said the following:

Mark (Bangor, PA): Hafner over or under on 50 HR's next year?
Rob Neyer: Under. Gotta stay healthy first.

Verdict: Misleading. Rob Neyer says that Hafner needs to stay healthy in order to show that he can reach 50 HR implying that Hafner has some sort of injury problem. It is true that Hafner missed time during each of the last 2 seasons due to injuries. It is true that missing time can prevent one from hitting 50 home runs. However, let's take a closer look at Hafner's "inability to stay healthy":

2005: Hafner missed 17 games after he was hit in the head by Mark Buehrle in a July 16 game. He suffered a concussion from the HBP.

2006: Hafner missed the last 29 games of the season after he was hit on the hand by CJ Wilson in a Sept. 2 game against the Rangers. His hand turned out to be fractured and he was quoted as saying that he couldn't even tie his shoes 4-5 days after being hit.

Thus, Hafner clearly needs to "stay healthy" and has a problem of getting out of the way of pitcher's pitches which are thrown at him. The problem with Neyer's answer is that he is asserting that since Hafner was injured during the previous 2 years, it is likely that he will not be healthy for a full season this year. If Hafner's injuries affected his leg or arm muscles or happened while doing something during the game (besides standing and holding a bat), then I could see that correlation. But Hafner's injuries are completely freakish and coincidental in that he has gotten hit by a pitch (in 2 different locations) and sustained serious injuries for 2 straight years. There was no "skill" involved in avoiding those injuries (unless Travis Hafner can invent a miracle potion to turn himself invisible just before he is about to get HBP); it was just pure bad luck (much like when Derek Jeter got injured back in 2003---BTW, Neyer, the Yankees won without Jeter then; guess he's become a whole lot more "valuable" in the last 3 years). And Hafner isn't one of those Craig Biggio types that gets HBP all the time, so you can't use the argument that he was due for an injury by putting himself at risk. 9 HPB in 2005; 7 HBP in 2006. Maybe Neyer thinks that bad luck is destined to repeat itself, but given all the columns and chats he has spent talking about luck and chance, it would seem that he knows better than this.

In any case, the main point to take away from the aforementioned examples is that a lot of sportswriters (particularly baseball writers) just don't pay close enough attention to what is actually happening day-to-day during a season. I'm sure John Kruk watches a lot of Phillies games and he probably saw the 2 games that Ryan Howard batted in the #7 slot in and some games where he batted #6. But he just carried those assumptions over for the first 25% of the season without any factual evidence to back it up. The same is true with Richard Justice. He's probably saw AROD strike out a couple times this year with runners on in a close game and watched him have terrible 2005 & 2006 postseasons. Did he see AROD his .358 in Sept. with 8 HR and 25 RBI (48 HR/150 RBI full seasons translations)? No, of course he didn't. Because if he did, he might actually be interested in adding one of the league's best hitters to the 6th worst offense in the league (3rd worst if you go by OPS). Finally, I have no idea what is going on with Rob Neyer. He's usually on top of his game, but those Jeter puffs he ate must still be affecting him.

It just seems to me that hardcore fantasy baseball players such as myself (*cgh, League Champion *cgh) and Tent Time seem to know more about baseball and statistics and the daily happenings of the game, then these sports writers who job it is to follow the game. For example, does John Kruk know who that Rafael Furcal had more HR after the AS Break than Magglio Ordonez? or that Bill Hall led all major league SS in HR's with 35? or that 18% (roughly 1 out of every 5) of the runs given up by Kelvim Escobar was unearned (thank you Vladamir Guerrero)? I'd venture to say no. Granted some sports writers are only for specific teams so you can't really expect them to follow the rest of the MLB spectrum. And the season, with games every night of the week for 26 straight weeks, is no walk in the park. But that doesn't excuse the claim that Ryan Howard batted #6-7 for the first 1.5 months of the seasons (especially when such a claim can be very easily verified).

P.S. the Exhibit B line was from Pee Wee's Big Adventure for those that didn't get it...

10 Overrated Fantasy Seasons

2006-10-11T17:22:00.000-04:00

As a compliment to our earlier article, we here at REAL BBBB offer you the 10 most overrated fantasy seasons of 2006. These are players who most people think had good to above average seasons, but when the final numbers were added up, really weren't that good at all. People like Jason Varitek, or Brad Lidge aren't what we're looking for here because everyone knows that their seasons were bad. So here goes.

Brad Penny (SP): The 10-2 start Penny had at the All-Star break along with his 2.91 ERA had him as one of the top first-half pitchers. Unfortunately, like most good Orioles teams, he slowly sank to the bottom and completely fizzled in the 2nd half (6.25 ERA!). Overall, the 16 wins are nice, but his high ERA (4.33) and WHIP (1.33) in a NL Pitcher's park really weren't that good . He finished 96th overall and was the 34th best SP finishing behind Beckett, Derek Lowe, Millwood, Wang, and Freddy Garcia.

Adam Dunn (OF): Dunn pulled a reverse-holliday and stunk up August and September including .157/2/5 line from Sept. Although his HR total was right in line with last year, his runs were down (107 v 99), RBI's down (101 v 92) and his AVG (.234)/OPS (.855) were the lowest they had been since '03. Thus, he finished at 122 overall behind players such as Nick Johnson, Overbay, Byrnes, and Mike Cameron.

Todd Helton (1B): If I had been writing this list for the past 3 years, it seems that Helton would have been on it every year. Despite a rejuvinated Rockies offense, Helton suffered declines in every category except RBI (79 v 81) and steals (3 v 3). His average was only .302 and he only scored 94 runs despite batting #2 and #3 for a large majority of the season. His 15 homers were fewer than several light-hitting shortstops (Rollins, Furcal, Ramirez) and he finished 163rd overall. Players he was behind included Adrian Gonzalez, Jacque Jones, Joe Crede, Adrian Beltre, and Corey Patterson.

Michael Young (SS): After having a solid 4 category season last year, Young went very high in drafts and justifiably so at a pervceived weak SS position. He finished 2nd in the AL in hits (217) and collected 100 RBI's (103) for the first time ever. However, this was more than balanced out by lower than usual run numbers (114 v 93), HR's (24 v 14), and AVG (.331 v .314). Young went from 8th in the league in runs ('05) to 50th this year ('06). Some of this was due to struggling by his supporting cast (cough cough..Teixeira), but his own lack of power didn't help any. He was only the 10th best SS (Glaus qualified in Yahoo leagues) and 95th overall finished behind Bill Hall, Carlos Guillen, Furcal, Michael Cuddyer, and Gary Matthews, Jr.

Chone Figgins (too many to list): Figgins is another player whose stats were partly affected by the struggling of his lineup, but he also contributed 20 fewer hits to lower his avg (.290 to .267). He was another well sought after commodity on draft day and he did deliver 52 steals, and comparable HR/RBI numbers to last year. But the lower AVG and runs were what hurt him as they both decreased significantly (20 runs, .23 BA pts). Although he as eligibilty at 6 positions, one must remember that he was only the 5th best 2B and only provided above-average numbers in one category.

Juan Pierre (OF): Pierre had a very similar season to Figgins except that he didn't have the benefit of being able to be filled in at almost any spot in your lineup. Pierre was again a one-trick pony getting you 58 steals (good for 2nd best overall) and not much else. He only scored 87 runs, terrible for a leadoff man and 66th overall. Granted this was due in part to the Cubs anemica offense (and Derrek Lee's injuries), but try using that excuse when your team finished 5th in the standings. He was never a great contributor in HR/RBI, so 3/40 was pretty much was most were expecting. While his average did improve 16 pts from last year (.276 v .292), Pierre was nowhere near a precious commodity as his 104th overall ranking (23rd among OF) indicate.

Chris Capuano (SP): Capuano was another player who had a post All-Star Break meltdown to turn a fantastic season into a truly average one. His 5.17 ERA and 1.34 WHIP post ASB, caused his ERA/WHIP to finish at 4.03/1.25 which would seem quite high for a pitcher that tied for the MLB lead in Quality Starts with 25. Capuano did provide excellent K totals (174), and overall his numbers weren't that much different than last year (2 fewer K's, slightly lower ERA, much lower WHP 1.38 v 1.25 and more Complete Games). This just goes to show how fluky win totals are as he dropped from 18 to 11 (including only 1 in the last 2.5 months of the season). Thus, Capuano finished 101st overall behind such other pitchers as Kenny Rogers, Penny, Beckett, Garcia, Millwood, and Pettite.

Edgar Renteria (SS): Renteria was another player who started off the year with a bang, but finished with a whimper (re: Adam Dunn). Although the dropoff wasn't quite as extreme, his overall numbers weren't that good even for a shortstop. The 100 runs were the only category he excelled in as his 14 HR, 70 RBI and 17 Steals were overshadowed by many other players (including several shortstops) and he didn't even hit .300 (.293) despite going into the ASB with a .318 AVG. Althought he might have been a value because he was taken so late in drafts, he finished 136th overall and was only the 12th best SS. He finished behind Bill Hall, Felipe Lopez, Ray Durham, Patterson, and Overbay.

Freddie Sanchez (SS): Freddie Sanchez won a batting title this year and for that he should be congratulated. However, his overall value to fantasy baseball was grossly overshadowed by this title. Sanchez's .344 AVG definitely carried your team in that category, but his 85 runs, 85 RBI's, and 3 steals did little to help you elsewhere. While the 85 RBI and .344 AVG are great for a MI, his 6 HR and 85 Runs were not. There were only 7 players who had a comparable number of at-bats to Sanchez and had fewer HR (Loretta, Vizquel, Pierre, Podsednik, Castillo, Kendall, Taveras). Thus, he was essentially a lead balloon in 2 categories (HR/Steals) which caused him to be ranked 144th overall. While it is nice to have someone with multiple position eligibility that can be plugged in anywhere at a moment's notice, he was no higher than 10th at any of the individual positions (2B, SS, 3B) and finished behind Nomar, Laroche, Dunn, Mike Cameron, and Lopez.

Ryan Zimmerman (3B): Ryan Zimmerman may win NL Rookie of the Year and like Freddie Sanchez, he should be congratulated for that. However, if you won your fantasy league this year, he was probably not the player you were congratulating for it. His 110 RBI's were impressive (especially on a low scoring NL team) and he chipped in 11 steals. But only 20 HRs, a .287 AVG (only .13 above the league average), and 84 runs weren't outstanding overall. Granted, he is a rookie, but Chipper Jones bettered him in 3 out of 5 categories despite playing in 47 fewer games. Zimmerman should have a bright future ahead of him, but his season wasn't all that spectacular as evidenced by the fact that he was 105th overall and only the 12th best 3B. He finished behind people such as Bill Hall, Figgins, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez (both ROY candidates as well), and Rolen.

Unexpected Postseason Gems

2006-10-10T23:05:00.000-04:00

Sometimes greatness comes unexpectedly. Just ask my wife. (Although to be honest, I haven't really delivered any greatness yet. I look like shit and basically, that's what I am.) In the last 20 years there have been hundreds of postseason games with great drama and excitement. Many of these games have been pitched by players we don't all remember, or want to remember. And sometimes, on rare occasions, one of these rather unspectacular pitchers steps up and delivers a performance of an ace and forces us to remember them. But since we don't, I'll list some of them here.

I hereby present to you the 10 most unexpectedly dominant performances by a pitcher in the last 20 years of postseason play. Enjoy.

10. 1993 NLCS Game 3: With the Braves and Phillies tied at a game apiece, the series shifted to Atlanta. Phillies starter Danny Jackson delivered 7.2 innings of one run baseball and knocked in the winning run of a 2-1 win that turned the series around and led the Phillies to a 4-2 series upset. Danny Jackson was a rather unspectacular 12-10 with a 3.77 ERA during the regular season and this was his only win of the 1993 playoffs.

9. 1993 ALCS Game 2: The 1993 season was the best of Wilson Alvarez's career. He posted a record of 15-8 and his 2.95 ERA was second in the league. It was his first season as a full time starting pitcher and in his first career postseason start, with his team down 2-0 to the World Champion Blue Jays and on the road in Toronto Alvarez delivered the only postseason win of his career. He threw 9 innings of 1-run baseball to get the White Sox back in the series

8. 2002 ALCS Game 1: Joe Mays concluded the 2002 season with a 4-8 record and an ERA of 5.38. Coming off of a terrible start and loss in the ALDS, not much was expected out of Mays in his Game 1 start of the ALCS, but Mays delivered 8 innings allowing 4 hits and 1 unearned run to lead the Twins to a game 1 win over the Angels. Unfortunately for them, it would be the only game the Twins would win in the series, and the game remains the only postseason win of Mays' career.

7. 1987 NLCS Game 2: Coming off a season which saw him go 10-12 with an ERA of 3.43, Dave Dravecky took the ball on the road with his Giants down 1-0 in their best of seven series with St. Louis. Dravecky delivered a 2-hit masterpiece to even up the series. He would later take a hard luck loss in game 6, and 2 years later, after only 9 more starts, he was out of baseball.

6. 1987 NLCS Game 7: During the 1987 season, Danny Cox was a pedestrian 11-9 with a 3.88 ERA. Having already lost game 4 of the series to the Giants, Cox again took the mound in Game 7. This time, however, Cox did something that he didn't do in any of his 31 regular season starts in the 1987 season, and in fact he had not done since 1985: he threw a shutout. Cox's gem sent the Cardinals into the World Series to face the Royals. Unfortunately for Cox, his career was shortlived. 31 starts and 398.1 innings later he was out of baseball. Cox remained otherwise unspectacular in his career, finishing with a record of 74-75, but on October 14, 1987 he was pretty close.

5. 1997 NLCS Game 4: With a rotation that featured future Hall of Famers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz, Denny Neagle often found himself relegated to the sidelines. He didn't pitch in the '97 Division Series, but after losses by Maddux and Smoltz, the Braves found themselves down 2-1 to the Florida Marlins. Atlanta turned to Neagle to start game 4 and he took advantage of the opportunity, tossing a 4-hit shutout with 7 K's to even the series at 2-2. It would be the only start that Neagle would get to make that postseason, as the Braves were eliminated by Florida (and umpire Eric Gregg) in 6 games.

4. 1992 NLCS Game 5: In his mere 19 regular season starts in 1992, Bob Walk allowed nearly a hit per inning and his 60 K's against 43 walks were not encouraging. In game 2 of the '92 NLCS, Walk pitched 2.2 innings of relief, allowing 3 hits, 2 walks and 4 runs. Facing Steve Avery (1991 NLCS MVP against the Pirates) and possible elimination in game 5 of the 1992 NLCS against the Atlanta Braves, the Pirates sent Walk to the mound with low expectations. All Walk did was throw a complete game 3-hitter, allowing only 1 run and stave off elimination. It would be the last big game of his career, as Walk would pitch only 1 more season in the majors, going 13-14 with an ERA of 5.68 in 1993.

3. 2006 ALDS Game 3: With the series tied at a game apiece, the Tigers returned home for two games against the dreaded Yankees and their modern day murderers row: a lineup that featured 9 all-stars and 2 MVP's. The Tigers countered with Kenny Rogers, who had not beaten the Yankees since 1994 and whose postseason resume revealed an 0-3 record with an ERA of 8.81. Rogers was fired up, however, and lead the Tigers to a surprise victory with 7 2/3 scoreless and downright shocking innings. It was a game Detroit was not supposed to win, in a series they were not supposed to win. But Rogers' performance turned the series and the next day, they did just that, eliminating the Yankees 3-1.

2. 2000 NLDS Game 4: With an 11-6 regular season record and a 5.06 ERA, Bobby Jones was relegated to being the number 4 starter for the Mets when the playoffs began. Up 2 games to 1 in the series, the Mets sent Jones to the mound against Barry Bonds and the Giants. Naturally, Jones twirled a 1-hit shutout, including an 0-4 day from Bonds. The only hit Jones allowed all day was a harmless double by Jeff Kent in the 5th inning. The Mets clinched the series 3-1 and went on the beat the Cardinals in the NLCS. As the Mets charged to the World Series, Jones made 2 other starts, totalling 9 innings and allowed 10 hits and 9 runs. Before his 1-hit masterpiece, Jones hadn't thrown a shutout in the big leagues since 1997. The next year, in 2001, he signed with San Diego and in his 2 years out west he went 15-27 with an ERA north of 5.00. He called it quits after 2002.

1. 2004 NLDS Game 3: You could argue that Jose Lima had 2 good seasons as a major league pitcher. 2004 was not one of them. In 1998-99 he went a combined 37-18 with an ERA slightly over 3.50. In 2004, Lima had an ERA over 4.00, gave up over a hit per inning and struck out only 93 batters in 170 innings. In the 2004 NLDS, Lima's Dodgers were facing the St. Louis Cardinals and their big offense lead by Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds. The Cardinals won 105 games in 2004 and lead the National League in runs scored, hits, batting average and slugging percentage. As expected, the Cardinals dominated the Dodgers in the first two games of the series, scoring 16 runs in the process. But that all changed when the Dodgers sent Lima to the mound for Game 3.
Lima tossed 9 innings of 5-hit shutout baseball at the Cardinals to get the Dodgers on the board. How unlikely was this? Don't worry I'll tell you. It was Lima's second career postseason start, and the first (in 1999 against the Braves) didn't go well. In Lima's career in the regular season, he has made 235 starts. Exactly 1 (one) of those was a shutout and that game took place in 1998, a full 6 years earlier. Lima hadn't thrown a complete game since 2001. (It's worth noting that Lima made 32 starts during the following 2005 season for Kansas City and was about as bad as you can be giving up 219 hits in 168 innings on route to a 5-16 record and a 6.99 ERA.) Not surprisingly, the Cardinals came out the next day in game 4 and scored 6 runs in a victory to advance to the NLCS, but I'm sure most of them were still scratching their heads about what Jose Lima had done to them the day before. I bet some of them still are.

10 Underrated Fantasy Seasons

2006-10-08T16:06:00.000-04:00

Here at RBBBB, we know that you love fantasy baseball as much as we do. That's why we're starting to roll out some articles about the 2006 season looking ahead to 2007 since Spring Training is only a short 18 weeks away. So, first I offer 10 underrated/under-the-radar seasons. These are going to be players who ended up much higher in the rankings than anyone would guess. Draft position does play some part in this, but this post isn't meant to target people like Jermaine Day or Brandon Webb. Everyone is aware of the monster seasons they both had (after being drafted in Round 13+). This is meant to spotlight seasons like Aubrey Huff's 2003 when he hit 34 HR, 107 RBI and OPS'ed .922. Or Andy Pettite last year 17-9, 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP (due in large part to his post AS break ERA/WHIP of 1.69/.90). So here we go:

Matt Holliday (OF): Everyone who didn't know him learned of Holliday this year and the reason he makes this list is because of the unbelievable month of September he had. Going into September, he had been hovering around the 30's-40's in overall rankings, but he went on a tear (.333/10/34/1.145/29 runs) and finished #9 overall. He finished tied for 5th in runs, 10th in Avg, 11th in OPS and threw in 10 steals. He finished ahead of pereniall studs such as Beltran, Berkman, AROD, Morneau, Vernon Wells, David Wright, Jason Bay, Konerko, and Thome.

Hanley Ramirez (SS): He started off the year on a tear batting in the .330's by the middle of May, but cooled off and his average was down to the .260's for the middle of June. The runs were always there as he batted leadoff in a decent lineup. But after the All-Star break, the HR's and steals began to pile up and he shot up the rankings. He finished 28th overall and as the 4th best shortstop due to his 51 steals (5th) and 119 runs (tied-5th). Behind him were people such as Miguel Tejada, Michael Young, Grady Sizemore, Johny Damon, Manny Ramirez, Carlos Delgado, and Chone Figgins (who Ramirez bettered in every category except steals 52-51).

Aaron Harang (SP): 6th best starting pitcher (no Papelbon doesn't count despite SP eligibilty) in 2006 in part due to NL Leading 216 K's (2nd overall to Santana), respectable 16 wins, and 6 (yes league leading) complete games including 2 shutouts. His ERA and WHIP were a tad on the high side, but one must consider his home ballpark as well---Home ERA 4.61, Road ERA 2.98. This is mainly due to home runs given up at home vs on the road (20-8) as his WHIP (1.28 v 1.26) and BAA (.268 v .269) were almost identical. He also didn't kill you with walks (i.e. Zambrano you) as he was tied 48th. He is on the bubble of a bona fide ace considering the durability and strikeout numbers he gives you. Finished ahead of Oswalt, Halliday, Peavy, Randy Johnson, and Verlander.

Joe Nathan (RP): Everyone knows Joe Nathan by now and knows that he is a dominant reliever. However, not everyone knows that he was the best rated fantasy RP, only blew 2 saves all year long (tied with Saito for lowest BS total--although Saito only had 26 chances, Nathan had 38), finished 3rd in ERA for all closers (1.58) and barely behind Papelbon for WHIP (.78 vs .79). Add 7 wins to his 36 saves and 95 K's and Nathan was purely dominating. Everyone that was worried on June 1st when he had only 6 saves had their fears calmed over the last 4 months of the season. Finished ahead of Papelbon, Rivera, Lidge, and BJ Ryan (the last 3 of which were taken before him in almost every draft).

Derek Lowe (SP): Lowe is another player who had an amazing Aug/Sept. to vault him up the fantasy rankings. Although lacking in K's (123), he delivered 16 wins, respectable 3.63 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and didnt' kill you with walks. After an absolutely putrid July (ERA/WHIP 7.11/1.86) he posted Aug/Sept. numbers of 1.69/0.78 and 3.08/1.37. He was no doubt helped by the spacious confines of Dodger Stadium, but his road ERA/WHIP were only 4.18/1.35. Finished ahead of Jason Schmidt, Beckett, Wang, Freddy Garcia, Pettite, Capuano, and Glavine.

Michael Cuddyer (OF/1B): Cuddyer will not doubt lose some value next year as he only retains OF and 1B eligibility as compared to this year when he was eligible at 3 out of 4 infield spots (not SS). However, he finished 72nd overall due to 24 HR, 109 RBI's, an .866 OPS, .284 AVG, and 102 runs. He was the 3rd best 2B overall, ahead of Figgins, Brian Roberts, Cano, and even Uggla. He finished ahead of peple such as Delgado, Giambi, Dunn, Glaus, and Frank Thomas.

Garrett Atkins (3B): Basically a carbon copy of Holliday at 3B, Atkins put up tremendous numbers (117 runs, .329 AVG, .965 OPS) and was within a hair of being the highest ranked 3rd basemen in the game. He finished at 19th overall, 2 spots behind Cabrera and 1 spot behind AROD. While his splits favored his home ballpark, HR were split evenly (15-14) and he batted .313/OPS'ed .933 on the road, both respectable numbers. Finished ahead of Wright, Aramis Ramirez, Glaus, Sizemore, Thome, Konerko, Bay.

Carlos Guillen (SS): Injuries the past 2 years had dampened the expectations on Guillen, but when healthy for a full season he showed that he is a solid 5 category contributing player. Although his RBI numbers were down (85) he had AVG/OPS of .320/.920, 19 HR, and scored 100 runs despite batting in the #5 spot a majority of the time. He finished 57th overall ahead of Young, Felipe Lopez, Figgins, Manny Ramirez, and Delgado.

Chipper Jones (3B): Jones missed time with injuries at 3 different points during the season and only played in 110 games. Yet, he still managed to finished 70th overall because of .324 AVG/1.006 OPS. He only finished 9 RBI's and 7 runs behind Rolen despite playing in 32 fewer games. Jones stats translate out to 36 HR/120 RBI/122 Runs over a full season (154 games--we can't really expect this 34-year old to play in every game). Finished ahead of Glaus, Rolen, Nomar, Frank Thomas, Young, and Giambi.

Takashi Saito (RP): Saito's season may be overlooked because he only had 24 saves, but his periphery stats clearly exhibited how good his season was. The low saves total was due mainly to the Dodgers win margins and the fact that he didn't become the closer until the middle of May. His 107 K's led all full-time relievers and his 2.07 ERA/.910 WHIP were right at the top in those categories. He only blew 2 saves (tied with Nathan) and contributed 6 wins. Finished ahead of Rivera, Huson Street, Hoffman, Chris Ray, and Francisco Cordero.

Note: Rankings were from Yahoo's rankings based on standard 5 X 5 leagues. Using different categories in your league such as OPS instead of AVG can positively (Dunn, Delgado, etc.) or negatively (Crawford, Ichiro) affect player's rankings and value.

My AL MVP Ballot

2006-10-08T01:14:00.000-04:00

1. David Ortiz
2. Justin Morneau
3. Johan Santana
4. Travis Hafner
5. Joe Mauer
6. Frank Thomas
7. Derek Jeter
8. Jermaine Dye
9. Carlos Guillen
10. Grady Sizemore

Like I said in the comments of Cuckoo for Jeter Puffs 2, the award really should go to Travis Hafner. Who cares if he doesn't play defense. He still ends up with more overall value to the team than people who play premium defensive positions and do it well (Sizemore, Guillen, Mauer) or not well (Jeter). But since Hafner got injured and missed significant time (for the 2nd straight year), he gets knocked down a couple of spots. So therefore, I am at a tossup between Ortiz and Morneau. While Ortiz has better stats, he does have Manny protecting him (for most of the season), while Morneau has to rely on Torii Hunter. The only reason writers are ignoring Ortiz this year is because the Red Sox didn't finish in the playoffs, which is hardly his fault.

Reasons the Red Sox tanked in August/September:
1) Josh Beckett sucking
2) Every other RS starter getting injured at some point during the season
3) A very weak powerless RS lineup
4) injuries to the aforementioned pitchers, and Trot Nixon, Coco Crisp, Wily Mo Pena, Jason Varitek, Alex Gonzalez, and Manny Ramirez during the season.
5) A terrible (sans Papelbon who was eventually shutdown) bullpen.

Not the reason the Red Sox tanked in Aug/Sept.:
1) David Ortiz's performance in Sept/Oct. (AVG/OPS/HR/RBI/BB)

August: .276/1.112/10/16/25
September: .292/1.146/7/16/26

Granted the HR/RBI numbers are down because he got walked so many times with no protection behind him when Manny was hurt. But you're going to tell me that averaging 8.5 HR/month; 16 RBI/month and OPS'ing 1.129/month (which leads to season averages of 51 HR, 96 RBI, 1.129 OPS) isn't valuable or doesn't help your team win or i.e. is one of the main reasons why your team stopped winning. Ridiculous.

Santana could possibly be several spots lower. I don't have a problem with him being anywhere from 2nd-10th.

I only have Mauer 5th because he plays catcher, and plays it very well offensively and defensively. Yes, he won a batting title as a catcher which is great and amazing, but that doesn't make up for the fact that 71% of his hits are singles. When he hits a single, a run is only created when Morneau (or during the last 3 weeks of the season Hunter) drive him in. Whereas when Morneau comes up and homers, he still creates a run even if Mauer isn't on base. Frank Thomas really should be ahead of him in terms of overall value to one's team, but Thomas's statistics weren't good enough to justify him in front of a good defensive catcher.

Next, we have Jeter. I've already written extensively on why I don't think Jeter should be MVP. 8 All-Stars and 2 former MVP's providing lineup protection with subpar defense and the best closer of all time, yet a #2 singles hitter is the reason they win. 'Nuff said.

8-10 are really interchangable. Sizemore and Guillen definitely get defensive points over Dye but Dye did OPS 1.006. Granted Dye has lineup protection of Konerko and Thome though (but still he doesn't have 8 other All-Stars protecting him). Pretty much anyone from #4-#8 could be switched without any major complaints from me. But I do think Guillen and Sizemore had underappreciated seasons.

Insightful commentary from Steve Lyons

2006-10-08T00:58:00.000-04:00

Tigers-Yankees: 3rd/4th(?) inning 10/7/06. Steve Lyons gives us the following gems:

1) Talking about Derek Jeter he says that Jeter should probably be the MVP and "is having the best offensive season of his career."

	EQA	RC/27	OPS+	VORP
1999	.324	9.21	161	108.7
2006	.309	7.58	138	79.2

The only category that Jeter has better numbers in during 2006 than 1999 is WARP-3 and possible Win Shares (I can't find 1999 Win Share values). Which would completely make sense since he had a worse statistical season and played in a much better offensive lineup in 2006. Maybe it is coming from the fact his defense is better in 2006 than it was in 1999?

2) The other half of this blog (Tent time) reminded me of Steve Lyons' other insightful comment. With 2 outs and Magglio Ordonez on 1st, Carlos Guillen hit a looper over Robbie Cano's head into right field. Ordonez (running on contact since there were 2 outs) made it to third easily which led Lyons to praise his baserunning ability: "..he was running as soon as it was hit, he knew it would be a hit, he didn't hesitate and that's why he made it to third base." Hey Steve, there were 2 outs at the time. That's why he didn't hestitate to see if the ball would be caught. Because if the ball was caught, then the inning was over.

Keith Law MVP Debate--Plus, our first f*ckup

2006-10-06T15:20:00.000-04:00

Keith Law posted his MVP ballot (top 10) last week here. Naturally, he has Derek Jeter at the top since every ESPN commentator has chosen Jeter as the MVP (except Buster Olney who hedged between Jeter and Morneau). So the argument against Jeter you can read in another thread. But there are some other things to comment on.

1) Joe Mauer 7 spots ahead of Justin Morneau: Look, Joe Mauer won a batting title as a catcher, which is an amazing accomplishment. But he isn't the reason the Twins won the AL Central after being 10 games back in June. All of Mauer's singles are useless without Morneau or Cuddyer (i.e. Morneau) hitting home runs or doubles to drive Mauer in. I just don't see how defense can make up that big of a difference between players. Also, Mauer is not the best defensive catcher in the game. When he throws out over 50% of attempted steals, then you call him that.

2) Grady Sizemore at #5 ahead of Travis Hafner and Morneau: Like I said above, I don't think defense can make up that much of a difference when you have 1 hitter that beats another in every category (HR, OBP, SLG, RBI, etc.) Apparently, the VORP calculators don't think so either because Travis Hafner stills beats Sizemore despite playing 80% of the season. And he does a comparison between Sizemore and Morneau " Would you rather have, say, .292/.377/.536 with average defense in center (Sizemore) or .321/.376/.560 with fringe-average defense at first (Morneau)? " Seeing as how they have identical OBP (even though Sizemore bats #1 and Morneau #5), I think I'd take the guy that is slugging 25 pts higher even though he doesn't play center field. Morneau is by no means a defensive liability (i.e. Manny Ramirez or Mike Piazza).

3) "if David Ortiz doesn't make my ballot, " Can you explain why David Ortiz is not on your ballot Keith? I know that you're going to go back to the same argument about not playing defense and would rather have a great centerfielder who OPS's .900 or a DH. Well, that's what they made up VORP for, which takes into account defensive position. And Ortiz still beats Sizemore. I just don't see how a guy who is 8-9 (with 4 BB's) and 13 RBI in "game-winning situations" over the last 3 years isn't "valuable". But maybe that's just me. Oh yeah, I know why he isn't valuable. Because every Red Sox starter got injured or sucked (Beckett) and the Red Sox folded away in August/September. Which brings us to:

My first REAL BBB f-up: So in Keith Law's chat today (10/6) I asked him the following:

Josh (XXXX, FL): Keith, You talk about Grady Sizmore as an MVP candidate, yet Travis Hafner (who does everything better than Sizemore except defense) is nowhere to be found? Why??? Hafner has better OBP, SLG, more HR, more RBI, and higher VORP despite only playing 80% of the season. Yet you'd rather have Sizemore?? Keith Law: My MVP ballot had Sizemore #5 and Hafner #8. And I'd much prefer to have a capable centerfielder than a DH. Centerfielders who can hit like Sizemore are so difficult to find, and they put you well ahead of the game compared to other clubs who have to settle for less in center on either offense or defense.

Keith Law: My MVP ballot had Sizemore #5 and Hafner #8. And I'd much prefer to have a capable centerfielder than a DH. Centerfielders who can hit like Sizemore are so difficult to find, and they put you well ahead of the game compared to other clubs who have to settle for less in center on either offense or defense.

While it may be true that "CF's who can hit like Sizemore are so difficult to find..", it is any more difficult than other outfield positions, such as say Right Field. Looking at the Top 10 OPS numbers for CF and RF for all of MLB

CF: range: 795-982; avg: 866;
RF: range: 799-1066; avg 877;

Worst Postseason Pitchers

2006-10-06T00:22:00.000-04:00

As with any best list, it must be followed by a worst list, just to balance things out. For this particular list, I've branced out and included both starters and relievers in the last 20 years. For their benefit, I won't go into as many specifics with these poor bastards. I'm sure there are others I've forgotten, so please feel free to point them out to me.

Today's trivia: From 2000-2006, what player holds the record for most runs scored in a single season with 152?

10. Hideo Nomo: 0-2, 10.38 ERA, 12 hits in 8 IP. He's only this far down the list because of limited opportunities.

9. Storm Davis: 1-3, 5.12 ERA, 32 hits in 31 innings, 19/11 K/BB ratio. Not a key cog in Oakland's late 80's early 90's run.

8. Terry Mullholland: 1-2, 6.61 ERA, 38 hits in 31 innings, 15/10 K/BB ratio. A lot of innings and a lot of hits. But at least he's not old.

7. Kyle Farnsworth: 7.36 ERA in 11 innings. Most notable meltdowns include not exactly putting out the fire after Prior left the 8th inning of the now infamous 6th game of the 2003 NLCS against the Marlins, and failing to protect a 5 (yes five) run lead for the Braves against Houston in the 4th and final game of the 2006 NLDS. (Though it's worth noting that this didn't stop the Yankees from throwing $18million at him to be a set up guy in the Bronx. I'm sure that will go well.)

6. Matt Morris: 2-6, 4.05 ERA, 44/34 K/BB ratio. Morris seems like a nice enough guy but just can't quite get it done in crunch time. As the playoffs roll on, he gets worse. NLDS: 2.02, NLCS: 5.62, WS: 8.31.

5. Tom Gordon: 0-1, 7.32 ERA, 22 hits in 19 and 2/3 innings.
Never has someone so bad in big spots been so consistently thrust into them. Blew a huge save for the Red Sox in the 1998 NLDS against Cleveland, and then got so badly hammered by Boston in the 2003 ALCS that he was reportedly vomiting in the bullpen while warming up.

4. Mitch Williams: 2-2, 7.00 ERA, 12 hits in 9 innings, 8/6 K/BB ratio.
The "Wild Thing" was exactly that as he used his unusual delivery to blow 4 out of 7 save opportunities for the Phillies during their 1993 run to the World Series. Who knows, maybe they would have won it all if not for Williams' performance in the WS (0-2, 20.25 ERA).

3. Kenny Rogers: 0-3, 8.85 ERA, 32 hits in 20 and 2/3 innings, 15/16 K/BB ratio.
Quite simply, not good. Probably most famous for his 1999 NLCS ending walk to Andruw Jones with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 11th inning that ended the Mets season.

2. Jack McDowell: 0-4, 8.72 ERA, 32 hits in 21 innings.
McDowell had some great regular seasons for the White Sox and one good one for the Yankees but that did not translate well in his four playoff starts and one forgettable relief appearance. If you remember, it was McDowell against whom Griffey made his famous dash for home on the Edgar Martinez double to score the series winning run in the 11th inning of game 5 of the 1995 ALDS.

1. Aaron Sele: 0-6, 4.46 ERA, 42 hits in 36 innings, 17/13 K/BB ratio.
Hard to argue with an 0-6 record that took Sele all of 7 post season starts to accumulate. Even worse, 5 of those 6 losses came against the same team; the Yankees. Sele is proof that pitchers with high ERA's but pretty looking w-l records because of their offense and bullpen are not actually as good as some writers seem to think they are.

Pitchers off to Bad Postseason Starts
Jake Peavy: 0-2, 12.10 ERA
Matt Clement: 1-2, 8.62 ERA
Odalis Perez: 1-1, 15.00 ERA, 13 hits and 9 BB's in 6 innings.
Chris Reitsma: 17.05 ERA with 12 hits allowed in 6 and 1/3 innings.

Trivia Answer:
Jeff Bagwell scored 152 runs in the year 2000, in the Astrodome, a big time pitcher's park. It's worth noting that the 152 runs scored by Bagwell were the most since Lou Gehrig scored 167 in 1936.

Cuckoo for Jeter Puffs---the sequel

2006-10-05T17:34:00.000-04:00

On Tuesday Sept. 26, Rob Neyer answered an email from a fan regarding Derek Jeter as the MVP choice. I was quite disappointed as I read the email he answered since I had emailed 3-4 days earlier with pretty much the same content you see listed below (I admittedly did not include the specifc VORP and OPS stats from 99 and 06). However, Neyer answered a very weak and unorganized email here and basically made the argument that if you look at VORP and Win Shares, Jeter has the best combination out of any of the candidates. He also discounted Morneau because he is 18th in OBP and only 7th in OPS and said that Joe Mauer was more preferable over Morneau. So I decided to drop into one of Rob's chat on Sept. 28th. I continuously submitted the email I sent to him on 1-2 minute intervals. Neyer obviously got the messages (which he refused to answer) as he closed the chat with the following line:

Rob Neyer: Probably not, and no. I was being theoretical. Thanks for the questions (except for Josh in Florida), hope to see you tomorrow (except for Josh in Florida).

As you could probably tell, I was the "Josh in Florida". So I dropped into Neyer's chat the next day and submitted a shorter, different version of my original email. To my chagrin, Neyer actually answered it:

Josh (XXXX,FL): Hey Cuckoo for Jeter Puffs, The award is titled MVP, not "Player having the best statistical season" award. If it was, AROD would have 5 or 6 of them, and Jeter would be a perfect candidate for it. But since it is NOT, excuse me if I discount Jeter's stats from playing in a 9 All-Star batting lineup with 450+ wins on the mound (including 18QS from the #3 starter) and the greatest closer of all time...

Rob Neyer: I've heard this sentiment a LOT this week (mostly because I argued for Jeter as MVP in a column on Tuesday). Here's the problem with this "logic" . . . Josh, yours is a standard that's rarely (if ever) been applied. As I think I mentioned in this space last week, when Joe Morgan won MVP Awards in 1975 and '76, his Reds finished those seasons with 20- and 10-game leads, and would have won division titles with anybody at second base. MANY MVP's have come from great teams that didn't actually need him. And Jeter's no different.

Here's where Neyer is completely and totally dead wrong:

1) He says "yours is a standard that's rarely (if ever) been applied. " Now I don't know exactly what he was talking about, but I think he was referencing my "standard" which was that players who play on really good teams aren't discounted or downgraded in the MVP race because of the team they play on. That isn't the point that I was trying to make. While that may be true (although the Yankees won 4 WS titles in 5 years yet never had anyone higher than 3rd in MVP voting which leads one to believe that their individual stars were discounted), the point is that Jeter's stats are a product of his environemnt. An environment which includes 2 former MVP's providing lineup protection behind him. You take Jeter and put him in the #2 slot of the Royals lineup or the Padres lineup and he sure ain't hitting .340 with 100 RBI's. People pitch to him because they aren't worried that he will hurt them since he never ever homers.

2) He mentions Joe Morgan as someone who won the MVP award who played on good teams which would have won their divisions easily if he was removed. While that me be true, it is also true that Joe Morgan lead the National League in OPS both years (by .40 in '75 and .100 in '76). He had OPS+ of 169 and 189 (Jeter best OPS+ is 161 in 1998---when he finished 6th in MVP voting in case you forgot). The point being that Morgan was a truly dominant productive middle of the order (#3) hitter. As soon as Jeter leads the league in OPS or nearly doubles the league average OPS, I'll gladly hand him an MVP.

I wrote Rob an email with the above things mentioned after his 9/29 chat. He responeded with the point that Jeter was the best player on his team this year, if not, the league (AL) itself and that according to the best evidence (VORP, WARP-3, Win Shares) he was at the top. Therefore, he was a credible MVP candidate. Nothing about the fact that Jeter plays in possibly the best lineup of all time. Nothing about the fact that Joe Morgan was in fact a worthy MVP (even if his teams won the division by 10-20 games).

I replied to Rob talking about VORP and Win Shares with the basic point that his VORP was inflated because he is a poor defensive shortstop (and VORP only considers position, NOT quality of skill at position). Also, his Win Shares total is inflated because he plays on a winning team. I laid out an extensive argument about how if Jeter went 4-4 in a game with 3 singles and a double in the Yankees lineup he would probably score 3 or 4 runs and the Yankees would win 12-6 and he would get some credit applied towards his win shares. However, if he played on the Orioles or the Nationals and had the exact same line, they would lose 8-5 and he would get NO credit applied towards his win share total (since they are calculated from actual win numbers). That might possibly explain why Travis Hafner is more valuable than Jeter (despite playing no position and Jeter getting inflated SS value) yet is 7 win shares behind him.

No response from Neyer yet...Still waiting..Perhaps I will drop into a chat of his coming up.

Best Postseason Starters

2006-10-05T01:01:00.000-04:00

With the 2006 Postseason upon us, I feel its time to reflect on the best Postseason starters of the last 20 years. Forgive me for not going back further, but I feel I really should only comment on pitchers I've seen. And we won't bother discussing relievers because really, what's the point. Nobody is close to Rivera, who has been the lynchpin of the Yankees late 1990's success.
(Trivia: What reliever holds the record for lowest career Postseason ERA with a minimum of 20 and 2/3 IP? Answer at bottom)
So I present to you, one man's opinion of the top 5 playoff starters of the last 20 years (arguments welcome).

5. Dave Stewart: 10-6, 2.84 ERA
Stewart was the ace of the Oakland A's mini-dynasty from the late 80's through the early '90s. Nobody dominated the AL in playoffs like this guy. Stewart went 8-0 in LCS play, and never had ERA over 3.46 in any playoff series for the A's from 1988-1992 (7 post season series). Stewart has 2 LCS MVP's on his resume ('90, '93) to go along with a WS MVP ("89). We all remember his intimidating glare (and the far less intimidating, and slightly amusing imitation attempted by Andy Pettitte).

4. Orel Hershiser: 8-3. 2.59 ERA
Besides being the best athelete ever named Orel, Hershiser was an October dominator for two different teams in both leagues. Hershiser stepped up big when his undermanned and overmatched Dodgers team needed him in 1988. That year Orel hurt both the Mets and the A's by going a combined 3-0, with 1 save in 42 innings with an ERA of 1.05, collecting the NLCS and WS MVP trophies on the way. He then caught on with Cleveland in 1995 and led them to the World Series, and added another LCS MVP trophy to his mantle.

3. Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez: 9-3, 2.55 ERA, 107 K's in 106 innings.
Exagerrated raft stories aside, Hernandez burst onto the scene when the Yankees outbid the competition for his services and quickly became the most reliable postseason starter of the Yankees 1998-2000 run. Hernandez seemed impervious to the pressures of the postseason, starting his playoff career 8-0 and not losing until his 11th October game (which came in his 3rd season). Along the way, he collected the 1999 ALCS MVP to go along with his 3 World Series Rings.

2. John Smoltz: 15-4, 2.65 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
On a staff with future HOFers Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, Smoltz emerged as the playoff ace for a team that unfortunately is known more for the WS titles it didn't win. The lack of titles can hardly be attributed to Smoltz, who has more playoff wins than anybody. You want consistency? NLDS: 2.52 ERA, NLCS: 2.83 ERA, World Series: 2.47 ERA. Some highlights include a CG SHO in game 7 of the 1991 NLCS against Pittsburgh and the 1992 NLCS MVP trophy and lets not forget that it was Smoltz who battled Jack Morris zero for zero in the famous seventh game of 1991 World series, which the Braves bullpen eventually lost in 10 innings. You want heart? With his shoulder aching, Smoltz dominated the Astros for 7 innings to level the 2005 NLDS at a game apiece. There isn't much in the playoffs that Smoltz hasn't done on the mound.

1. Curt Schilling: 8-2, 2.06, 0.926 WHIP
Schilling is the big game pitcher of his generation. He has taken 3 different teams to the World Series, making 15 playoff starts with 4 complete games and 2 shutouts. After carrying the Phillies to an improbable WS birth in 1993, Schilling made a living as the final piece needed by playoff contenders, helping both the Diamondbacks and Red Sox to World Series titles. Along the way, Schilling was awarded the 1993 LCS MVP and the 2001 WS MVP. We all know about the famous bloody sock, but more importantly, in games that his team was facing elimination Schilling is 3-0 with a 1.11 ERA.

Overrated:
Roger Clemens: 12-8, 3.71 ERA. Nice win total, but the relatively high ERA indicates some big game struggles. Among his losses, nobody ever mentions that in the 2004 NLCS game seven, when he was outdueld by Jeff Suppan. Never been postseason series MVP.

Andy Pettitte: 14-9, 4.08 ERA. With an ERA over 4, his reputation as big game pitcher appears to be caused by offensive support.

Randy Johnson: 7-8, 3.28. Yes, he was huge in 2001, but is 0-7 in 7 division series starts since 1995.

Underrated:
Greg Maddux: 11-14, 3.22 ERA. Good ERA indicates a lack of offensive support might have been this HOFer's biggest opponent, especially in WS play (2-3, 2.08 ERA).

David Wells: 10-4 3.15 ERA. Never big on fitness, Wells has come up big in the playoffs, bettering his regular season career ERA (4.07) by nearly a full point and even winning ALCS MVP honors in 1998.

Juan Guzman: 5-1, 2.44 ERA. Seriously. Who the hell is Juan Guzman? Toronto's #2 starter on the back to back WS Champion teams from 1992-93.

Next generation of Aces?
Chris Carpenter: 3-0, 1.97
Barry Zito: 4-2, 2.43
Roy Oswalt: 4-0, 3.66

Trivia Answer: Of course, it's John Rocker. 20 2/3 innings, 0 (zero) earned runs allowed. That's 1 run for every I.Q. point over 60.

Rob Neyer goes cuckoo for Jeter Puffs

2006-10-04T22:57:00.000-04:00

I like Rob Neyer. I really do. He usually writes interesting articles with a wealth of information to solidy his points. However, ever since he went cuckoo for Jeter puffs, it seems that his "rock-solid" reasoning has disappeared. In response to Rob, declaring that Derek Jeter is a legitimate MVP candidate, if not the winner, I offer you the following reasons why Derek Jeter is NOT the mvp.

1) His 1999 season was better statistically than his 2006 season and he finished 6th that year in MVP voting. In fact, Jeter led all of basebal in VORP in '99 and OPS'ed .990 (granted, his VORP is inflated because the calculation doesn't include defensive quality, but still). This year Jeter is 2nd in the AL (and 4th overall) in VORP and OPS'ed .900. Was anyone lobbying for Jeter for MVP in '99? Didn't think so. Should he have finished higher than 6th in '99? Probably. But, I'm still waiting for someone to answer how he is now the AL MVP when he has worse stats than in '99 and plays in a much better lineup now than he did in '99.

2) He hits in a lineup with 8 other all-stars and 2 former MVPs. So I'd say it's a lot easier to put up his numbers in that lineup than say David Oritz who has 2 all-stars and 0 MVP's protecting him. Ditto for Justin Morneau, so excuse me if I discount Jeter's offensive stats (which aren't even that great to begin with). I just don't see how 1 All-Star out of 9 can really contribute that much more or be that much "more valuable" than the other 8 All-Stars (especially when this particular All-Star plays poor defense and only has an OPS+ of 138).

3) Would the Yankees win withough Jeter? Yes, they would and we have proof of this in 2003 when he missed the first month of the season and the Yanks started 26-11 (just like the Yankees continued to win this year without Sheffield and Matsui). Would the Red Sox win without Ortiz? They would, but nowhere near as much, and his 13 GW RBI's (along with 8-9 and 4 BB's in game winning situations the last 2-3 years) pretty much prove that. The Twins without Morneau? I don't know but all I have to say is I have him on my fantasy team and almost every single night he has a hit, walk, run, or RBI. (11/9/2006)---To further expand on this point, I offer you the video evidence of Steve Phillips who compares Jeter vs Morneau in BA, HR, RBI, Runs in their respective teams Wins vs Losses. ----back to the rest of the article.
I'll admit that I'm not a Yankee fan or Jeter fan, but I don't see how someone can objectively look at this situation and consider Jeter the frontrunner. Because when it all comes down to it, is Jeter the reason the Yankees win? No, the Yankees win because they have a $150 million lineup with 9 all-stars, 2 former MVP's, over 450 combined wins on the mound (including 18 Quality Starts from their #3 starter), and probably the best closer of all time.